Transcript College Age Student Demographics

Student Demographic
Projections, Public Policy
Questions and the Impact on
Higher Education
Knowing who is (and is not) knocking at the college door
Becky Brodigan
Middlebury College
NEAIR Annual Meeting
November, 2006
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
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“These findings can be very helpful
in helping shape public policy.
Many folks may not like the
implications of these findings, but
they are the facts, and we ignore
them at our peril.”
David Longenecker, Executive Director,
WICHE, The Chronicle of Higher Education
2/24/2006
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Demographics of Higher Education
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IS this much ado about nothing or
do we ignore at our peril? You
decide

Demographic changes are one piece of
a complex puzzle

Income and gender are two others that
we will talk about that haven’t received
much attention or analysis
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Things to think about today…

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What is the environment within which we operate?
What is happening in our state and region?
Where do our students come from (at our
institutions)?
Where do students from our state go?
Where do non-residents come from to our schools?
Will these changes impact career colleges,
community colleges, state colleges, public flagships
and different varieties of privates differently?
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Things to think about today…
Context… What’s happening to ALL of
education?
 NCLB (N$LB) –



states under attack, threats to pull back federal
funding
Pressure to allow students to transfer (what about
those who can’t – are they left behind)
Effects spilling over into higher education policy
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Demographics of Higher Education
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The Effects of Accountability
Movements and Efforts like NCLB
Testing at the federal and collegiate level
(CLA)?
 New definitions of “college material?”
 During the next two decades will access
and the number of students going to
college expand or will opportunities
contract?

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Demographics of Higher Education
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Minority School Enrollments
Source: U.S. Department of Education
More than 50%
36% to 50%
21% to 35%
10% to 20%
Less than 10%
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Some sobering facts about schools


Public secondary education is resegregating
at accelerating rates, despite the growing
minority student population across the country.
Nationwide
 70% of Black students attend minority
majority schools,
 White students are the most segregated group,
they typically attend schools where less than 20
percent of students are from other racial and
ethnic groups.
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Some sobering facts about schools

Minority schools are more highly
correlated with high poverty schools;
tend to have lower parental
participation;
 maintain fewer resources; and
 have less experienced classroom
teachers with higher turnover than
white schools.

Source: André Bell, MRO, The College Board
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Demographic changes
First talked about in the late 70’s -- higher
education ignored
 Recently, College Board has been the
leading voice in the discussion on the
national level



http://www.collegeboard.com/highered/de/index.html
Moody’s recently published a paper
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Demographics of Higher Education
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What will we look at?
High School Graduation Projections
through 2018
 by race
 by region
 College Going Rates by Race, Gender
and SES
 Current Enrollment Patterns by State

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Demographics of Higher Education
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What will we look at?


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Enrollment Patterns by Race and
Gender
Migration Data
Public Policy Issues – recent
research
Your part -- What do we think
this all means?
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Policy Related Implications for Higher
Education and State Policy Makers


What can change these projections? Are there
likely to be improvements or decreases in
graduation rates by any groups?
In the Northeast, maintaining market share will
lead to declines in enrollment for individual
institutions. Will enrollment shift sectors? How
will legislatures respond to theses shifts?
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Policy Related Implications for Higher
Education and State Policy Makers

What are the implications for tax revenues and per
capita income if the percent of college graduates
decreases?

Will new populations of students graduate in the same
patterns as their predecessors? (Majors, time to degree,
students and sports?)
Do our faculty and staff reflect mirror the new
demographics? How will that affect our ability to
recruit and retain students?

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Demographics of Higher Education
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Challenges of the Perfect
Demographic Storm

How can we reduce barriers to college access for
low-income and minority students?

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Improve K-12 preparation
Admission and financial aid policies and processes
Improve Retention
If we succeed, how will we find adequate
funding (Federal, State, Institutional) to support
increasing financial need?
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Demographics of Higher Education
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WICHE Projections
Public and Non-public high school
graduation data since 1960
 Actual from 87-88 through 01-02
 Projections from 01-02 to 2017-18
 Included details descriptions and
formulas of the ‘aging’ process as well as
detailed notes by state

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Demographics of Higher Education
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WICHE Data
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Historical and projection tables for public schools with total births, public
enrollments by grade, and high school graduates, including progression ratios;
Historical and projection tables for each racial/ethnic group with births,
public enrollments by grade, and high school graduates, including progression
ratios;
Historical and projection tables for nonpublic schools in each state with
total births, nonpublic enrollments by grade, and high school graduates,
including progression ratios;
Detailed notes for each state explaining the sources of the historical data
that underlie the projections and the methods used to generate the
projections.
Historical and projection tables for income brackets in each state with
public enrollments by grade and high school graduates, including progression
ratios.
Projections extend to the year 2017-18. Birth data are from the National
Center for Health Statistics’ Monthly Vital Statistics reports providing final
birth data for each year. Enrollment and graduate data are collected primarily
from the state education agencies. When state data were incomplete, other
sources were used and are detailed in the notes for each state.
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Number of Public High School Graduates Peaks
and Valleys …
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
3,000,000
2,900,000
2,800,000
2,700,000
2,600,000
2,500,000
2,400,000
2,300,000
2,200,000
2,100,000
2,000,000
Source: WICHE/The College Board
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Demographics of Higher Education
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College 'bubble' is about to burst
(Philadelphia Inquirer – 7/31/2006)

Administrators at local private institutions as
diverse as Chestnut Hill College, Drexel University,
St. Joseph's University, and two-year Harcum
College in Bryn Mawr say they already are
preparing for the coming shortage. In an effort to
maintain the dramatic enrollment gains they've
made, many are extending their recruiting efforts
to faster-growing states, as well as adopting new
academic programs to appeal to a wider pool of
students.
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at colleges and
universities: 1947 to 2004 (Census Bureau)
18,000
16,000
Note: Enrollment is in thousands
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
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Demographics of Higher Education
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1947
0
20
Projections of HS Graduates
in the United States
70.0%
65%
60.0%
56%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
22%
20.0%
14% 13%
10.0%
1%
0.0%
1%
Native American
6%
15%
8%
Asian American
Black
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Demographics of Higher Education
Hispanic
White
21
Projections of HS Graduates
United States: 2006-07 to 2017-18
250,000
228,994
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
74,586
3,454
3,460
-10,471
(50,000)
(100,000)
-97,528
(150,000)
Native
American
Asian
American
African
American
Hispanic
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Demographics of Higher Education
White
Private
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Transition and Completion Measures
from High School to College
80%
75%
White
70%
60%
50%
African American
Hispanic
64%
49%
53%
55%
57%
52%
45%
38%
40%
31%
30%
23%
27%
20%
10%
0%
Graduate from High
School on Time (2001)
Recent High School
Graduates that Go
Directly to College
(2001)
Three-Year Graduation
Rates of Associates
Students (2002)
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Demographics of Higher Education
Six-Year Graduation
Rates of Bachelor's
Students (2002)
23
Tomás Rivera Study
18-24 year old California Latinos
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400 person sample
200 who had never attended college and 200
who had attended college
Interviews were in English and/or Spanish
Sample representative of Latinos in US except
over 75% were HS graduates
Median income was $25,000 to $35,000
83% US born
72% had at least one foreign born parent
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Tomás Rivera Study
18-24 year old California Latinos
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98% said it was important to have a college
education
38% did not feel the benefits outweighed the
costs
Not being able to work and incurring debt were
opportunity costs associated with attending
college
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Tomás Rivera Study
18-24 year old California Latinos



Over 50% erroneously thought you had to be a
US citizen to apply for financial aid
Few respondents could accurately estimate the
cost of attending either UC or Cal State Univ –
most overestimated the cost
There is a lack for familiarity with Cal Grants
and federal grants
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Tomás Rivera Study
18-24 year old California Latinos


Almost 25% thought loan availability was
contingent on grades
30% would use a commercial bank as the source
of their loan (Aspire)
“Perceptions of College Financial Aid Among California Latino Youth”
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Implications

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
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Explaining the benefits of higher education will
continue to be a challenge, especially when
recruiting students with no family history
Opportunity costs are an impediment to many
families
Cost perceptions will continue to hamper
colleges ability to recruit
Need to better explain financial aid eligibility
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Demographics of Higher Education
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White, Non-Hispanic Degree
Attainment
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Associates
Bachelors
1981
1985
Masters
1990
1995
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Demographics of Higher Education
PhD
2003
29
PhD’s Awarded by Race
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Black, non-Hispanic
Hispanic
1981
1985
Asian or Pacific
Islander
1990
1995
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Demographics of Higher Education
American
Indian/Alaskan Native
2003
30
Master’s Degrees Awarded by Race
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Black, non-Hispanic
Hispanic
1981
1985
Asian or Pacific
Islander
1990
1995
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Demographics of Higher Education
American
Indian/Alaskan Native
2003
31
Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Race
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Black, non-Hispanic
Hispanic
1981
1985
Asian or Pacific
Islander
1990
1995
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Demographics of Higher Education
American
Indian/Alaskan Native
2003
32
Associate’s Degrees Awarded by Race
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Black, non-Hispanic
Hispanic
1981
1985
Asian or Pacific
Islander
1990
1995
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Demographics of Higher Education
American
Indian/Alaskan Native
2003
33
PhD’s Awarded by Race
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Black, nonHispanic
Hispanic
1981
Asian or Pacific
Islander
1985
1990
American
Indian/Alaskan
Native
1995
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Nonresident
alien
2003
34
College Continuation Rates
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
1976
1979
1982
1985
White
1988
Black
1991
1994
1997
2000
2004
Hispanic
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Fall 2005 Freshmen Enrollment by
Race – Four-Year Colleges (CIRP)
16%
14%
14% 14%
14%
12%
10%
11%
11%
9%
8%
9%
7%
6% 7%
7%
5%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Black
Public 4 year
Latino
Private 4 year
Asian American
Public Univ
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Demographics of Higher Education
Private Univ
36
NE HS Graduates: Changes in actual
numbers from 2006 to 2018
5,800
4,407
6,000
3,000
575
492
0
(3,000)
(6,000)
(9,000)
(12,000)
-10,829
(15,000)
-17,842
(18,000)
White
Asian
African Hispanic
American American
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Demographics of Higher Education
Native
American
Overall
37
Northeast HS Graduates: Changes in
actual numbers from 2006-07 to 2017-18
23,088
25,000
0
(25,000)
11,852
521
-7,825
-10,026
(50,000)
(75,000)
African
Asian
Native
American American American
Hispanic
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
-68,527
White
Private
38
Changes in HS Graduates in the
Northeast: 2006-07 to 2017-2018
80%
71%
70%
63%
2007
2018
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
.3% .4%
Native
American
6%
10%
Asian
American
15% 14%
Black
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
9%
12%
Hispanic
White
39
HS Graduates in New England
97,000
111,000
20
06
-0
20 7
07
-0
20 8
08
-0
20 9
09
-1
20 0
10
-1
20 1
11
-1
20 2
12
-1
20 3
13
-1
20 4
14
-1
20 5
15
-1
20 6
16
-1
20 7
17
-1
8
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Native American
Asian American
African American
Hispanic
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
White, Non-Hispanic
40
SAT Takers by Race/Ethnicity
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
New England
1% 1%
Native
American
10%
5%
Asian
American
US
86%
73%
13%
5%
Hispanic
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
4%4%
White
Other
41
Participation by Low-income
 All
New England states above the
national average of 25%
 Lowest rates are in the south and
west
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Demographics of Higher Education
42
HS Graduates in Massachusetts
50,000
40,093
47,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
20
06
-0
7
20
07
-0
8
20
08
-0
9
20
09
-1
0
20
10
-1
1
20
11
-1
2
20
12
-1
3
20
13
-1
4
20
14
-1
5
20
15
-1
6
20
16
-1
7
20
17
-1
8
0
Native American
Asian American
African American
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Hispanic
White
43
Projections of HS Graduates in
Vermont: 2006-07 to 2017-18
20
06
-0
7
20
07
-0
8
20
08
-0
9
20
09
-1
0
20
10
-1
1
20
11
-12
20
12
-1
3
20
13
-1
4
20
14
-1
5
20
15
-1
6
20
16
-1
7
20
17
-1
8
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Students of Color
White
Private
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Total
44
HS Graduates in NH:
2006-07 to 2017-18
1,000
661
500
0
597
226
32
(500)
-468
(1,000)
(1,500)
(2,000)
-1984
(2,500)
Native
American
Asian
American
Black
Hispanic
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Demographics of Higher Education
White
Total
45
HS Graduates in Massachusetts:
2006-07 to 2017-18
4,000
1,814
2,000
906
271
0
-443
(2,000)
(4,000)
(6,000)
-6,885
(8,000)
Native
American
Asian
American
Black
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Hispanic
White
46
HS Graduates in Connecticut
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
4%
8%
11% 12%
10%
15%
0%
Asian American African American
2006-07
Hispanic
White
2017-18
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Demographics of Higher Education
47
HS Graduates in NJ:
2006-07 to 2017-18
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
(2,000)
(4,000)
(6,000)
(8,000)
(10,000)
9,165
6,724
-136
6,629
-1,460
-7,664
Native
American
Asian
American
Black
Hispanic
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
White
Total
48
HS Graduates in Maryland:
2006-07 to 2017-18
8,000
5,564
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2,277
1,254
983
161
(2,000)
(4,000)
(6,000)
-6,132
(8,000)
Native
American
Asian
American
Black
Hispanic
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
White
Private
49
HS Graduates in Pennsylvania:
2006-07 to 2017-18
4,000
0
2,498
1,837
136
-1,168
(4,000)
-2,589
(8,000)
(12,000)
(16,000)
-16,242
(20,000)
Native
American
Asian
American
Black
Hispanic
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
White
Private
50
Pennsylvania High School Graduates
16,000
-1,168
White -16,242
14,000
12,000
10,000
+2,498
8,000
+1,837
6,000
4,000
2,000
+136
0
Native American Asian American
2006-07
Black, NonHispanic
2011-12
Hispanic
2017-18
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Demographics of Higher Education
51
New York High School Graduates
25,000
White -17,852
-4,200
+7,235
+489
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
+150
0
Native American Asian American
2006-07
Black, NonHispanic
2011-12
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Hispanic
2017-18
52
Changes in HS Graduates in New York
70%
65%
60%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
14%
8%
15% 13%
12% 14%
Black, NonHispanic
Hispanic
0% 1%
Native
American
Asian
American
2006-07
White
2017-2018
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
53
College Continuation Rates
in the Northeast
68%
70%
63%
63%
61%
60%
59%
59%
55%
50%
43%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Ve
rm
on
t
ire
N
ew
H
am
ps
h
an
d
M
ar
yl
ylv
nn
s
Pe
nn
e
Co
an
ia
ct
ic
ut
y
se
Je
r
ew
N
sa
c
M
as
N
ew
Yo
hu
se
t
ts
rk
0%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
54
Enrollment at Colleges in NY
Inter, 1.5%
Mass, 1.6%
PA, 1.7%
CA, 1.1% All Other, 7.2%
CT, 1.5%
Texas, 0.4%
NJ, 3.6%
NY, 81.8%
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Demographics of Higher Education
55
Enrollment at Colleges in Pennsylvania
Inter, 1.1%
Mass, 0.7%
CA, 0.5%
TX, 0.2%
All other, 7.8%
Ohio, 1.6%
NY, 3.6%
NJ, 6.6%
PA, 77.8%
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Demographics of Higher Education
56
Enrollment at Colleges in Maryland
NY, 2.5%
INTER, 1.8%
DC, 1.4%
PA, 3.1%
VA, 1.3%
NJ, 3.1%
TX, 0.4%
CA, 0.7%
MD, 79.0%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
57
Enrollment at Colleges in New Jersey
PA, 1.1%
INTER, 1.0%
NY, 2.8%
CA, 0.3%
TX, 0.1%
All other, 2.6%
NJ, 92.1%
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at Colleges in Connecticut
RI, 1.4%
NH, 1.0%
MD, 0.8%
PA, 1.4%
CA, 1.6%
ME, 0.8%
TX, 0.5%
Inter, 1.4%
All other, 5.3%
NJ, 5.3%
MA, 7.2%
NY, 10.4%
CT, 63.9%
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Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at Colleges in New Hampshire
CA, 0.9%
NJ, 1.8%
TX, 0.4%
All other, 9.7%
VT, 2.9%
NY, 3.6%
Maine, 4.2%
CT, 5.3%
NH, 53.3%
MA, 17.9%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
60
Enrollment at Colleges in Massachusetts
ME, 1.5%
Inter, 2.8%
NH, 2.6%
CA, 2.3%
RI, 1.6%
NJ, 3.3%
PA, 1.5%
VT, 0.7%
All other, 9.7%
CT, 4.7%
NY, 6.6%
MA, 62.3%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
61
Enrollment at Colleges in Vermont
CA, 1.6%
ME, 4.4%
NJ, 4.7%
PA, 2.7%
TX, 0.3%
All other, 11.4%
NH, 6.7%
CT, 7.6%
NY, 11.6%
VT, 33.0%
MA, 16.0%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
62
Projections of HS Graduates
in the West
79,952
80,000
60,000
50,157
46,397
40,000
19,344
20,000
0
(20,000)
-67
-3,694
-3,760
(40,000)
-49,615
(60,000)
Native
Asian
African Hispanic
American American American
White
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Public
Private
Total
63
College Continuation Rates in the West
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Ne
48%
ico
x
e
wM
47%
ho
Ida
46%
gon
e
r
O
44%
43%
on
nia
t
r
g
o
f
n
i
hi
s
Cal
a
W
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
39%
do
a
r
o
Col
64
Emigration of College Students
Vermont
57%
48%
46%
New Hampshire
Connecticut
NJ
43%
42%
42%
Maine
Rhode Island
37%
MD
32%
Massachusetts
18%
NY
11%
11%
Texas
Arizona
California
8%
18%
US
0%
10%
20%
30%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
40%
50%
60%
65
Percent of Freshmen from Out-ofState
Vermont
70%
67%
Rhode Island
51%
New Hampshire
40%
Massachusetts
39%
Connecticut
34%
Maine
25%
25%
25%
MD
NY
Arizona
NJ
California
Texas
9%
8%
8%
20%
US
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
60%
70%
80%
66
140,000
Projections of HS Graduates
in the South
128,372
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
24,635
12,773
8,619
4,340
0
(20,000)
-25,291
(40,000)
Native
American
Asian
American
African
American
Hispanic
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
White
Private
67
70%
64%
College Continuation Rates
in the South
61%
60%
55%
55%
54%
Nevada
Louisiana
Florida
52%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Georgia
Alabama
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Texas
68
Don’t mess with Texas! Where do
their HS Graduates go to College?
Rest of
Southwest,
1.9%
Great Lakes,
Rocky, 0.6%
0.6%
Plains, 0.7%
Southeast,
2.6%
Farwest, 0.6%
MidEast, 0.6%
NE, 0.4%
Texas, 92.1%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
69
Projections of HS Graduates
in the Midwest: 2006-07 to 2017-2018
38,242
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
14,223
456
-2,180
(10,000)
-2,675
(20,000)
(30,000)
(40,000)
(50,000)
(60,000)
Native
American
Asian American
African
American
Hispanic
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
-56,083
White
Private
70
What about gender issues?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
71
College going rates: Where are the
boys?
Males outnumber female through age 30
 Males account for less than 50% of high
school graduates
 Males account for 47% of college
freshmen
 Continuation rates vary by gender – men
around 59% and women 72%

November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
72
SAT Takers by Gender
60%
50%
54%
54%
46%
45%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
US
New England
Men
Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
73
College continuation rates
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
Males
Females
45%
40%
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
35%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
74
College Continuation Rates
by Gender and Race
80%
70%
60%
76%
74%
59%
60%
64%
66%
66%
46%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
White
Black
Men
Asian American
Latino
Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
75
Fall 2005 Freshmen by Gender by
Institution Type
70%
60%
50%
51% 49%
52%
48%
56%
44%
57%
43%
40%
59%
41%
62%
38%
30%
20%
10%
0%
VS Private
Universities
VS Public
Univ.
Public
Colleges
Men
Private
Colleges
Black Colleges
Catholic
Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
76
Fall 2005 Freshmen
by Gender and Region
60%
50%
55%
45%
56%
53%
47%
44%
55%
45%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Eastern
Midwestern
Men
Southern
Western
Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
77
Fall 2005 Freshmen
by Gender by Income
20%
15%
14%
15%
10%
18%
17%
15%14%
17%
15%
17%
16%
12% 12%
9%
11%
5%
0%
Less than 20 to 40
20
40 to 60
60 to 75
Men
75 to 100 100 to 150 150 and
above
Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
78
Fall 2005 Freshmen
Average HS Grades by Gender
39%
40%
35%
30%
26%
25%
20%
19%
27%
26%
21%
21% 21%
15%
10%
5%
0%
A or A+
A-
B+
Men
B or lower
Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
79
NE Enrollment Patterns: Full-Time
80%
Men
Women
70%
50%
56%
55%
60%
45%
55%
45%
44%
55%
45%
54%
52%
48%
46%
55%
45%
55%
45%
40%
30%
20%
10%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
U
S
To
ta
l
To
ta
l
on
t
Ve
rm
RI
H
N
as
s
M
ai
ne
M
Co
nn
e
ct
ic
ut
0%
80
NE Enrollment Patterns: Part-Time
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Women
63%
U
S
59%
To
ta
l
To
ta
l
66%
Ve
rm
on
t
H
63%
RI
63%
62%
N
M
ai
ne
Co
nn
ec
tic
ut
62%
68%
Men
M
as
s
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
81
Enrollment at Ivy League
70%
58%
60%
51%
44%
50%
52%
50%
46%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
t
In
al
n
o
ati
n
er
an
c
i
r
Af
an
c
i
er
m
A
N
ve
i
t
a
n
ca
i
r
e
m
A
ian
s
A
Men
Am
an
c
i
er
i
an
p
is
H
c
W
e
hit
Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
82
Doctoral
(minus technical universities)
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
62%
l
a
n
r
te
n
a
c
ri
f
A
e
m
A
n
n
ir ca
Na
e
tiv
Am
ca
i
r
e
A
A
n
sia
n
ca
i
r
me
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Men
57%
52%
44%
a
n
o
ti
In
56%
Women
isp
H
i
an
c
52%
e
hi t
W
83
Enrollment at Private
Liberal Arts Colleges
70%
65%
56%
60%
59%
61%
59%
58%
57%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
al
n
tio
n
n
n
a
a
a
c
c
c
ri
ri
ri
e
e
e
a
m
m
m
rn
A
A
A
e
t
ve
an
an
In
i
i
c
t
s
i
r
A
Na
Af
H
ic
n
a
i sp
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Men
Women
W
e
hit
tal
o
T
84
Enrollment at Public
Research Universities
70%
60%
62%
50%
40%
58%
57%
52%
51%
45%
30%
20%
10%
0%
at
n
r
te
In
a
n
o
i
l
a
ric
f
A
ca
i
r
e
m
nA
n
tiv
a
N
m
eA
n
an
c
i
er
ia
As
ca
i
r
e
m
nA
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Men
Women
H
isp
ic
n
a
W
e
hit
85
Public Master’s Universities
63%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
rn
e
t
In
61%
54%
52%
on
ati
al
an
c
i
r
Af
Am
an
c
i
er
tiv
a
N
an
c
i
er
m
eA
A
n
a
i
As
ric
e
m
an
60%
nic
a
sp
Hi
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Men
58%
57%
W
e
hit
tal
o
T
Women
86
Public Liberal Arts Colleges
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
rn
e
t
In
56%
on
ati
al
an
c
i
r
Af
Am
54%
60%
an
c
i
er
tiv
a
N
an
c
i
er
m
eA
A
n
a
i
As
60%
ric
e
m
an
65%
nic
a
sp
Hi
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
56%
55%
Men
W
e
hit
tal
o
T
Women
87
Public General
Baccalaureate/Associates
64%
63%
62%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
rn
e
t
In
57%
on
ati
al
an
c
i
r
Af
Am
55%
an
c
i
er
tiv
a
N
an
c
i
er
m
eA
A
n
a
i
As
ric
e
m
an
nic
a
sp
Hi
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
59%
57%
Men
W
e
hit
tal
o
T
Women
88
Public Two-Year Colleges
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
rn
e
t
In
56%
on
ati
al
an
c
i
r
Af
Am
65%
62%
55%
an
c
i
er
tiv
a
N
an
c
i
er
m
eA
A
n
a
i
As
ric
e
m
an
58%
nic
a
sp
Hi
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Men
58%
W
e
hit
58%
tal
o
T
Women
89
Race by Type of Private College
73%
75%
63%
60%
64%
60%
45%
30%
15%
16%
10%10% 8%
10%
2% 4% 3%
12%
12%
4%
7%
0%
African American
Asian American
Hispanic
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Bachelors/Associates
Liberal
Arts Masters
Demographics of
Higher Education
White
Universities
90
Race by Type of Public College
66%68%
58%60%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
17%15%
14%
9%
3% 3%
6% 8%
15%15%
11%
8%
0%
African American
Asian American
Hispanic
NovemberPublic
2006 NEAIRLA
-- The Changing
Bachelors/Associates
Public Masters
Demographics of Higher Education
White
Research
91
For Profit Colleges
68%
70%
60%
50%
58%
61%
55%
45%
42%
40%
62%
39%
38%
59%
41%
32%
30%
20%
10%
0%
International
African
American
Native
American
Men
Asian
American
Hispanic
White
Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
92
For Profit Colleges
Unknown
16%
Asian
American
4%
International
4%
Native
American
1%
Hispanic
17%
Caucasian
39%
African
American
19%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
93
Percent of Total Undergraduate State Aid
Not Based on Need, 1982 to 2002
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
94
Four-Year College &University Enrollment Rates of 1992
HS Graduates by Family Income and Math Test Scores
90%
80%
70%
Lowest Income
Second Quartile
Third Quartile
Highest Income
78%
68% 69%
59%
60%
47%
50%
40%
33%
30%
20%
84%
15% 14%
21%
37%
27%
10%
0%
Lowest Third
Middle Third
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Top Third
95
College Entrance within One-Year of
High School Graduation
70%
1972
64%
60%
55%
1980
2001
52%
50%
40%
30%
20%
13%
10%
0%
White
African American
Hispanic
Source: Higher Education and the Color Line, Pg 37 .
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Maximum
Difference
96
College Entrance within 2.5 years of
graduation by SES
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1972
88%
1992
78%
63%
51% 52%
43%
36%
27%
Top quartile
25th to 75th
Bottom quarter
Maximum
Difference
Source: Higher Education and the Color Line, pg. 37.
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
97
Levels of Education for the High
School Class of 1992 ( by 2000)
60%
53% 51%
51%
50%
38%
40%
41%
33% 35%
35%
30%
20%
19% 20% 17%
16%
6%
10%
20%
6%
0%
No College
Native American
Some College
Hispanic
African American
BA
Caucasian
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Asian American
98
Implications for the States –
Changes in Personal per Capita
Income
80% 70%
1980 to 2000 2000 to 2020
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
52%
49%
37%
-4%
Massachusetts
-5%
Texas
30%
-5%
-3%
New York
Colorado
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
-11%
California
99
Implications for the States – Personal
per Capita Income
30,000
2000
2020
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Massachusetts
Texas
New York
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
Colorado
California
100
Percent Changes in Educational Attainment,
2000-2020 Projections:(25-64 Year-Olds)
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
101
Summary

HS graduation projections
in NE going down over all
 Increases in groups with lower college
continuation rates
 Increasing in states that do not export
students
 Will affirmative actions changes/legal cases
stifle enrollment by students of color in
states like California and Texas?

November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
102
Summary
Male/Female ratios not likely to
improve
 Colleges in NE going to have to work
harder just to maintain market share –
expand marketing efforts and develop
new strategies

November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
103
Implications




More competition for fewer students in the
North East
More expense to attempt to recruit students
from outside the region
Will college going rates increase for different
ethnic groups? Are we ready?
Will the pressure to maintain/increase market
share lead to a growth in discounting and
increase in state and institutional merit aid
awards?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
104
Demographic Changes Likely to
Widen the Access Gap






Next wave of high school graduates will look
much different than today
Number of high school graduates increasing
 Till 2009, falls to 2004 levels in 2014, then growth
will surpass 2008 levels
Increases in underrepresented minorities
Increases in some areas of country but not others
Rising tuition and fees Federal and State aid
patterns make colleges appear unaffordable
Income differences by race/ethnicity will challenge
access for Blacks/Hispanics
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
105
Growing interest in State Data Bases
May Also Affect Enrollment Managers
Easier to track institutional outcomes.
 Given current linear simplistic thinking of
policy makers, this could disadvantage
schools that are less selective.
 May see more nuanced definitions of
persistence and continuing that may help
institutions that attract large numbers of
mobile students

November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
106
Summing Up: Moody’s 2006
Higher Ed Outlook

Continued higher education participation rate
increases across all demographic groups

Heightened competition for students in
demographically vibrant states, as colleges &
universities seek to expand their traditional
markets
Potential increases in financial aid/tuition
discounting above the rate of tuition growth,
especially in demographically challenged states

November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
107
Moody’s 2006 Higher Ed Outlook
Enrollment/Demand Trends


Many institutions in states with difficult
demographic environments reaching out beyond
their core markets to recruit additional out of
state students. (approximately 80% of students enroll
in their home state)
Building a presence in a new market may take
several years to effectively develop and translate
into real revenue growth from stronger out-ofstate enrollment
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
108
Moody’s 2006 Higher Ed Outlook
Enrollment/Demand Trends


Further demand for graduate and professional
programs, and education adult programs,
although this is a highly competitive and often
cyclical market and necessitates careful
management
The community colleges may experience the
most rapid growth, as first generation college
attendees enroll, leading to institutions to focus
more on transfer populations
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
109
Broad Institutional Enrollment
Management Considerations





Does your staff (the faculty and administrators)
resemble in the composition of future student body?
Will your strategy be to target these new groups of
students or will you attempt to adapt to changes as they
occur?
What are the financial resources (including financial aid)
necessary to meet the institution’s enrollment goals?
If students come in with weaker preparation, what will
be your response?
What will be the impact on retention and graduation?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
110
Specific Implications for Enrollment
Managers? It Depends

Institutional type and sector



Public or private
Two year or four year
Selective or less selective
Geographical location
 Institutional draw (market position)

November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
111
More…..

Direction of campus aid policies hard to
discern




For the moment, growing competition around
merit aid
Growing public attention on negative effects of
merit aid
Emerging focus on need based aid
There is a finite amount of money campuses can
spend on aid
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
112
Additional Implications for Enrollment
Managers
• Some
institutions will enroll student bodies that are
less academically prepared than current classes.
• Some institutions will see shrinking enrollments
because of declines in the number of high school
graduates in their states or regions.
• Some institutions may need to expand or alter their
recruitment strategies and redefine the target
populations they seek to attract and enroll.
• The racial and ethnic composition of students on
campus may be markedly different from current
classes.
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
113
Emerging Era of the Community
College?
•
•
•
Demographic shifts pose potential problems –
they have more in common characteristics of
students attending 2 year colleges
Students starting in 2 year colleges may already
have a predisposition for publics
Public policy trends could result in longer term
student shifts toward community colleges which
could result in more students at publics
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
114
How do we use this data?

Enrollment projections modeling




Trends in applications by state and region
Average market share over recent years
Projections of applicants by state and racial/ethnic group
Enrollment management research opportunities




Strategies for increasing market share
Strategies for expanding recruiting areas
Communications/publications strategies – publish in
difference languages (especially for parents), hire multilingual recruiters
Consider new financial aid/financing strategies
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
115
What do these colleges have in
common?





Bradford College
Westbrook College
Ricker College
Trinity College
Notre Dame
No longer exist or exist under a different name
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
116
References
Publications

Postsecondary Opportunity July 2004, October 2004, November 2004 and December 2004

Trends in Educational Equity of Girls and Women, NCES.

College Board Data and Reporting Products, Integrated State Summary Report New England - All Schools

2004 College-Bound Seniors: A Profile of SAT Program Test Takers

Enrollment in Postsecondary Education Institutions, Fall 2002 and Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2002

The Condition of Education, 2004: National Center for Education Statistics

Education Pays 2004 and 2005: The College Board

Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage? American Council on Education
Center for Policy Analysis, 2000 and updated tables and figures, August 2003.

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity:
Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, December 2003.

The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 2004, Cooperative Institutional Research Program, Higher
Education Research Institute, UCLA, December 2004.
Books

Mismatch: The Growing Gulf Between Men and Women, Andrew Hacker, Scribner, 2003.

Raising Cain: Protecting the Emotional Life of Boys, Dan Kindlon and Michael Thompson, Ballantyne, 2000.

Conditions of Access: Higher Education for Lower Income Students, Donald Heller, Editor, Praeger/ACE,
2002.

America’s Untapped Resource: Low Income Students in Higher Education, Richard D, Kahlenberg, Editor,
The Century Foundation, 2004.

The Source of the River: The Social Origins of Freshmen at America's Selective Colleges and Universities;
Douglas s. Massey, Camille Z. Charles, Garvey F. Lundy, Mary J. Fischer, Princeton University Press, 2003.

Higher Education and the Color Line: College Access, Racial Equity and Social Change. Edited by Gary
Orfield, Patricia Marin and Catherine L. Horn, Harvard Education Press, 2005.
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing
Demographics of Higher Education
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