Transcript EDPAC 2005
Innovation in the Exponential Economy Bio/Nano/ Info The Exponential Economy Ken Dozier Executive Director, WESRAC 12/3/09 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) The Western Research Application Center Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Can You Find the Billionaires ? “It’s easy to pick the ‘best and brightest’ who look like us, act like us and learn like us. The challenge is to identify the students who are brighter and better than us, and don’t look like us, or learn like us.” Mark Guzdial Georgia Tech ACM 12/2009 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Where are the Brains? (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995) Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Technologies Change Fast Bio-Tech Info-Tech Nano-Tech Source: SRI International 2002 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) We Think We Are This Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) We Are This Richard Thaler Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness 2008 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Homer’s Economic Skills • CONYONERO SALESMAN: Okay, here’s how your lease breaks down. This is your down payment, then here’s your monthly, annnnnnnnd here’s your weekly. • HOMER: And that’s is right? • SALESMAN: Yep….oh, then after your final monthly payment there’s the routine CBP, or Crippling Balloon Payment. • HOMER: But that’s not for a while, right? • SALESMAN: Right! • HOMER: Sweet! Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Anchor and Adjust “where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh - Popular Mechanics, 1949 only 1.5 tons” “This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us” - Western Union, Internal memo, 1876 “The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949 “I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ” - Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” - Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 Source: “The Future is Ours” Communication of the ACM, March 2001 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) What is Knowledge ? Truth Universal Knowledge Belief Social Personal No Debate Converge on debate Diverge on debate Phenomena Theory Guess Explicit Tacit Observation Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Exponential Dynamic Systems Common modes of complexity in dynamic systems Source: System Dynamics, John Sterman, 2000 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Exponential Economy The Internet Copyright SRI International 2002 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Can Our Brains Handle It? • Judgmental Forecasts of Exponential Growth are Highly Conservative. • People Tend to Think in Terms of Unit Differences Rather than Percentage Differences • J. Scott Armstrong (1985) Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Exponential Growth • How thick do you think a paper folded in-half 42 times would be? • How thick would it be after 100 folds? Source: “Long Range Forecasting” Armstrong 1985 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Exponential Growth The Answers • 42 folds = 440,000 Km (the distance from the earth to the moon.) • 100 folds = 850 trillion times the distance from the earth to the sun! Source: “Long Range Forecasting” Armstrong 1985 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Exponential Growth • • It has two characteristics that are very important to note. The first characteristic is its power. Exponential growth can occur very rapidly. The second characteristic is its insidiousness. Exponential growth can "sneak up" on a person! Consider the case of repeatedly folding a standard piece of paper in half, doubling its thickness with each fold . After five or six folds, the paper is not particularly thick. But how thick would it be after 36 more folds? As shown in Figures 7a and 7b, after 42 folds a standard piece of paper would be approximately 280,000 miles thick -- more than the distance from the Earth to the moon! Further, the shape of the plot shows that the big explosion in thickness occurs at the end of the plot. For most of the simulation run, the system’s growth is hardly distinguishable from the horizontal axis . The last few doublings, however, really make the thickness grow . http://www.systemdynamics.org/DL-IntroSysDyn/exgr.htm – Figure 7a Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Figure 7b HPC and Next Generation Biology • Simulating 100 microseconds of protein folding could take 1025 machine instructions • This computation would take three years on a PetaFlop computer. – "Jaguar" is one of only two known computers on Earth with peak performance exceeding a million billion (10^15) operations per second. The other one, IBM's "Roadrunner" system at Los Alamos National Lab • Keep a 3.2GHz microprocessor busy for the next million centuries. Source: Communications of the ACM. Volume 47, Number 11 (2004), Pages 34-41 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) 21 Century Research and Development Act http://www.blueribbonnano.org/ Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) California Council on Science and Technology 2004 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) The Bad News for The US? • The Brookings Institution estimated that America’s broadband decline could lead to a potential loss of $1 trillion in economic productivity over the next decade, as well as more than 1.2 million jobs that could be created by better broadband. Source: The Brookings Institute 2004 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Good News for Cities • City of Amsterdam announced a project to deploy FiberToTheUser throughout the city. http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86384 • Paris, France, announced the goal of deploying FTTU throughout “all of Paris.” http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86547 • The City of Vienna, Austria, announced plans for a citywide FTTU network that will provide residents 1 Gbps of symmetrical broadband capacity. http://www.heise.de/english/newsticker/news/68912 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Cloud Computing Utility http://compete.org/HPC Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Knowing Verses Doing Gap Never Ever Users Government Laboratories & University HPC Centers Number of Users Number of Applications Filling the Expertise Gap Moving Users Forward Entry Level HPC Users National Productivity Opportunity Experienced Industry Users 1,000 Nodes Experienced HPC “Heroes” World Class Computing Mid-Range Users 0 12 4 64 10,000+ Adapted from OSC Graphics Council and USC ISI Proprietary Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Desktop PC Entrance-Level HPC • Pre, Post Processor & Solver HPC Cloud (Remote) • Solver • Solver • Hardware: • 8 Cores • Hardware: • Software: • Windows XP • MSC.SimOffice • Mathematica • 100 – 10000 Cores • 48GB Memory • 1 Core • 3 GB Memory • Hardware: 1 Gbps • Software: • Linux • 10 times faster Solving than PC • Potential gateway to the HPC Cloud Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) 1, 12, 40 Gbps • ~ TBs Memory • Software: • Linux • 40 times faster Solving than PC 4 Tier Supply Chain J.W, Forrester, A. T. Kearney 2000 23rd Order Differential Equation Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) The Beer Game - Not Sharing Single change from ordering 4 cases to 8 cases per order cycle. Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) 10 Times Too Much Waste Knowledge sharing, reduces the damage of a simple change in the system. Densmore 0. 2005 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Dozier/Chang Findings • Disruptions move up and down the supply chain. Creates a state of co-dependency. • Knowledge sharing between members of the supply chain tend to suppress the damage created by unwanted oscillations. • Cloud computing will enable an ecosystem of super supply chains that will all the U.S. to dominate Bio/Nano/Info. Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Assessing Your Technology After-Technology (Customer Facing) Before Technology (Non-Customer Facing) Industry Adoption of Technology CIO Magazine June 2002 CEO Not Involved CEO Involved Executive’s Approach to Technology Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Contact Information For more information, please write: http://wesrac.usc.edu Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)