Transcript Slide 1

Kosi Basin Programme
Developing an evidence base in the transboundary
Koshi river basin to address impacts from climatic
and socio-economic drivers
Garrett Kilroy, Arun Shrestha,
Sagar Bajracharya, Kiran Hunzai
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Overview
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Context and planning
Preparatory phase
Characteristics and Issues in basin
Koshi programme outline
Next steps
Context of Koshi Basin
On-going relevant activities
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Third Pole Environment
Geo-PACC (CAS)
Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment (World Bank)
Ganges River Basin Management Plan (India)
Koshi basin river basin management (WECS and
WWF-Nepal)
• Sacred Himalayan Landscape Strategic Plan 20062016
• PAPRIKA – Agence Nationale de la Research (French)
• Water storage – IWMI and University of British
Columbia
Koshi River Basin
Preparatory Phase Partners
China
• Institute of Mountain Hazard & Environment (Chinese
Academy of Sciences & CN-ICIMOD)
• IGNSRR (GEO-PACC), CAREERI, CIB
Nepal
• Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS)
• Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
• Tribhuvan University
Regional:
• ICIMOD
Preparatory phase: planning
1. Vision
Preparatory Phase
For Koshi Basin by
ICIMOD and
Partners
Fully Fledged Programme
2. Situation
Analysis
7. Monitoring
and Evaluation
5. Proposal
Development
e.g. ESPA
Assess Progress
Revise Programme
Characteristics of
the Koshi, Key
Issues, & Gaps
6.
Implementation
3. Programme
Choice
of Programme Plan
Priorities identified
4. Draft
Programme Plan
Stakeholder and
Partner Approval
Preparatory phase: activities
• Develop partnerships
• Workshops and field mission
• Identify key issues and areas for collaboration
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Glaciers, glacial lakes, water resources & hazards;
Biodiversity;
Land use and land cover change;
Socio-economic development and regional development.
• Collate previous and on-going work in the Koshi Basin
• Develop programme in the Koshi basin
• Explore funding opportunities, e.g. UK-funded ESPA: wider
partnerships, IIT-Delhi
Key Issues – (1)
glaciers/water/storage/hazards
No. of Glacial
lakes in Koshi
(Nepal)
2001
2009
1062
599
Change
between 2001
and 2009
Nos.
Area
-44%
3%
Source:
Ives, Shrestha &
Mool, 2010
Different hydrological
systems
Sun Koshi
Arun
Tamur
10000
Arun
Tamur
Bagmati
1000
1000
100
10
1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Percent of time specified discharge was
equalled or exceeded
100%
Discharge as proportion of basin area X 1000
Discharge (cubic metres/sec)
Sun Koshi
Bagmati
100
10
1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Percent of time specified discharge was equalled
or exceeded
Data: 1962-1995, Department of Hydrology & Meteorology
Average monthly water yield
at Chatara (Saptakoshi)
SWAT modelling, PRECIS
300
B2 scenario
BL
A2 scenario
Water Yield (mm)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Source: Gosain, Shrestha & Rao (2010)
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
• General increase in
water yield
• More increase in
wet season
• Possible shift in
peak month
• Large uncertainties:
– Global datasets
– No consideration of
future LU change
– Limited hydromet
data
Groundwater inputs
Data: www.whymap.org
Sediments
Key Issues – (2) Biodiversity
and land use/cover
Protected Areas
Hands Around Everest Project, 2003
Key Issues – (3) Socio-economic /
development
Socio-economic Indicators in Nepal
Population below
Total Poverty Line
1996
Population below
Food Poverty Line
2003
1996
1996
2003
30
20
10
0
Pop. under the Non-food Poverty Line (%)
40
40
30
20
10
Nepal
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
Upper Koshi
Districts
2003
60
50
Pop. under the Food Poverty Line (%)
Pop. under the Total Poverty Line (%)
50
Population below
Non-Food Poverty Line
Upper Koshi
Districts
Nepal
Upper Koshi
Districts
Nepal
National Living Standards Survey, 2003 and 2006
Draft Koshi Programme
Overall Goal:
• To contribute to an evidence base on
how climatic and socio-economic
drivers impact on the interrelationships between natural and
human systems to allow for the
development of integrated responses
to protect ecosystems and reduce
poverty.
Draft Conceptual Framework
Draft Programme Work Areas
1. Coordination, integration and data management
2. Climatic, cryospheric and hydrological characterization, monitoring and
modeling
3. Basin wide socio-economic sectoral analysis of water and land use:
baseline and future projections
4. Water related hazard assessment and management; including sediments,
GLOF, flash floods, landslide and drought
5. Biodiversity and ecosystem services; status characterization and
degradation assessment
6. Evaluation of different water storage components (natural and man-made)
7. Water availability and efficiency in the agricultural sector
8. Adaptation and livelihood strategy development for impacts from climatic
and socio-economic drivers
9. Development of integrated policies and strategies for governments,
international donor community, NGOs and CBOs
Next Steps
• Conclusion of preparatory phase:
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Final workshop Spring 2011
Joint reports
Koshi basin information system
Koshi programme finalised
• Partnership Development:
– Consolidation of Chinese and Nepali partners
– Development of new partners, especially India
• Exploration of funding opportunities:
– UK Environmental Services for Poverty Alleviation
– Research Consortium developed, Write-Shop December 2010
• Third Pole Environment:
– Koshi River Basin programme will be a beneficiary and contributor
Thank you