Local Business Needs Assessment A Partnership between The San Mateo County Community College District, The San Mateo County Workforce Investment Board & The San Mateo County Economic Development Association

Gregory M Stoup Director of Planning & Research San Mateo County Community College District Cañada College

Analysis of EMSI Labor Market Data

Occupational employment projections for San Mateo County for the period 2012 – 2017 Hierarchical occupational framework (Federal SOC Codes; N = 1,421) • 23 occupations at level 1 (Major Groups) • 97 occupations at level 2 (Minor Groups) • 461 occupations at level 3 (Broad Occupations) • 840 occupations at level 4 (Detailed Occupations)

Example

SOC Code

21-0000 21-1000 21-1010 21-1011

Level Occupational title

1 2 3 4

Community and social services occupations Counselors, social workers, and other social service specialists Counselors Substance abuse and behavioral disorder counselors

Dataset includes current employment levels, projected openings due to growth, retirements and turnover, median hourly wages and the education level associated with each detailed occupation

A quick look at the biggest and fastest growing Major Occupations

Level 1 occupations with the highest levels of employment (2012)

Rank Occupation Title

1 2 3 Sales and related occupations Office and administrative support occupations Management occupations 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

--

Business and financial operations occupations Food preparation and serving related occupations Computer and mathematical science occupations Transportation and material moving occupations Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations Personal care and service occupations Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations

…All other occupations (N=13)

Currently Employed

63,562 57,011 44,507 38,441 28,911 26,029 24,239 20,652 19,453 18,890

18,488

Pct of County

14% 10% 9% 9% 8% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4%

23%

Level 1 occupations with the highest projected job openings (2017)

Rank Occupation Title

1 Sales and related occupations 2 3 4 5 Office and administrative support occupations Management occupations Business and financial operations occupations Food preparation and serving related occupations 6 7 8 9 10 - Computer and mathematical science occupations Transportation and material moving occupations Personal care and service occupations Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations Life, physical, and social science occupations

…All other occupations (N=13)

Projected Openings

11,601 7,786 7,560 7,510 6,818 5,505 3,999 3,990 3,972 3,179

18,488

Pct of County

14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4%

26%

What does this tell us?

1. Size matters; being big yields more job growth 2. Many of the largest and fastest growing occupations are at the entry level in the local service sector

Keep in mind

1. Employment growth in an occupation can come from two sources A. New Job Growth B. Job turnover

Industry Life Cycle

Occupational growth driven primarily by New Jobs Occupational growth driven primarily by Job Turnover Occupational growth driven primarily by New Jobs Time

Local Projected Job Openings for all 23 Major Occupations in San Mateo County

Major Occupation Title

Sales and related occupations Office and administrative support occupations Management occupations Business and financial operations occupations Food preparation and serving related occupations Computer and mathematical science occupations Transportation and material moving occupations Personal care and service occupations Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations Life, physical, and social science occupations Education, training, and library occupations Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations Production occupations Construction and extraction occupations Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations Architecture and engineering occupations Healthcare support occupations Protective service occupations Community and social services occupations Legal occupations Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations Military Occupations

Projected 2017 Job Openings

11,601 7,786 7,560 7,510 6,818 5,505 3,999 3,990 3,972 3,179 2,615 2,504 2,346 2,180 1,984 1,799 1,160 1,152 1,045 697 652 201 153

Percent that are New Jobs

28% 18% 33% 54% 22% 62% 19% 39% 40% 49% 37% 36% 32% 8% 18% 24% 31% 54% 20% 34% 39% 19% 6%

Percent from Turnover

72% 82% 67% 46% 78% 38% 81% 61% 60% 51% 63% 64% 68% 92% 82% 76% 69% 46% 80% 66% 61% 81% 94%

Top five occupations with strongest growth in new jobs Major Occupation Title

Sales and related occupations Office and administrative support occupations Management occupations

Business and financial operations occupations

Food preparation and serving related occupations

Computer and mathematical science occupations

Transportation and material moving occupations Personal care and service occupations

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations Life, physical, and social science occupations

Education, training, and library occupations Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations Production occupations Construction and extraction occupations Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations Architecture and engineering occupations

Healthcare support occupations

Protective service occupations Community and social services occupations Legal occupations Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations Military Occupations

Projected 2017 Job Openings

11,601 7,786 7,560

7,510

6,818

5,505

3,999 3,990

3,972 3,179

2,615 2,504 2,346 2,180 1,984 1,799 1,160

1,152

1,045 697 652 201 153

Percent that are New Jobs

28% 18% 33%

54%

22%

62%

19% 39%

40% 49%

37% 36% 32% 8% 18% 24% 31%

54%

20% 34% 39% 19% 6%

Percent from Turnover

72% 82% 67%

46%

78%

38%

81% 61%

60% 51%

63% 64% 68% 92% 82% 76% 69%

46%

80% 66% 61% 81% 94%

Now let’s drill down to the more detailed occupational definitions and incorporate worker wage and skill level information

Level 4 occupations with the highest levels of employment (2012)

Rank Occupation Title

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Retail salespersons Real estate sales agents Managers, all other Cashiers, except gaming Management analysts Personal financial advisors General and operations managers Janitors and cleaners Office clerks, general Executive secretaries & admin assistants

Employed

11,037 10,244 7,945 7,765 7,391 7,279 6,598 6,236 6,137 5,874

Median Hourly Wage

$11.14

$8.49

$25.28

$10.93

$31.11

$26.35

$57.30

$12.06

$15.00

$25.06

Education Level

Short-term on-the-job training Postsecondary vocational award Work experience in a related field Short-term on-the-job training Degree plus work experience Bachelor's degree Degree plus work experience Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Work experience in a related field Level 4 occupations with the highest projected job openings (2017)

Rank Occupation Title

1 2 3 Retail salespersons Real estate sales agents Cashiers, except gaming 4 5 6 7 8 9 Waiters and waitresses Managers, all other Personal financial advisors Management analysts Securities, commodities, and sales agents Computer software engineers, applications 10 Child care workers

Projected Openings

1,913 1,913 1,870 1,779 1,699 1,671 1,612 1,560 1,168 1,081

Median Hourly Wage

$11.14

$8.49

$10.93

$9.13

$25.28

$26.35

$31.11

$28.32

$48.80

$11.71

Educational Level

Short-term on-the-job training Postsecondary vocational award Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Work experience in a related field Bachelor's degree Degree plus work experience Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Short-term on-the-job training

Level 4 Summary

1. Once again we see that growth is largely a function of size (the largest occs have the most openings) 2. Both top 10 lists have a mix of low skill/wage and high skill/wage jobs

Next Step

Can we use the education and skill level information to help us group the occupations into meaningful cohorts?

San Mateo employment and wage profile by worker education level

Worker Education Level

Short Term Training Moderate Training Long Term Training Related Work Exp Post Secondary Voc Awared AA Degree BA Degree Grad Degree

Total Current 2012 Employment

134,147 49,740 32,274 54,315 29,712 16,579 93,313 25,984

Percent of Total Current 2012 Employment

31% 11% 7% 12% 7% 4% 21% 6%

Total Projected 2017 Openings

24,006 6,602 5,094 8,316 4,795 3,020 18,608 4,625

Percent of Total Projected 2017 Openings

32% 9% 7% 11% 6% 4% 25% 6%

Current Median Hourly Wage

$14.90

$15.00

$21.80

$21.90

$21.64

$28.15

$31.92

$36.51

Observation: there is something of a bimodal distribution on worker education level. The largest two segments are the Short Term Training and BA Degree workers. Note also that the BA worker capture over twice the hourly wage as the short term training worker.

Source of job openings for San Mateo by worker education level

Worker Education Level

Short Term Training Moderate Training Long Term Training Related Work Exp Post Secondary Voc Awared AA Degree BA Degree Grad Degree

Total Projected 2017 Openings

24,006 6,602 5,094 8,316 4,795 3,020 18,608 4,625

Percent that are New Jobs

34% 5% 20% 32% 5% 40% 33% 19%

Percent from Turnover

66% 95% 80% 68% 95% 60% 67% 81% Observation: jobs at both ends of the skills spectrum have strong new job growth

Now let’s take the education and skill level information available for the detailed occupational categories and apply it to the list of Major Occupations

Education and skill requirements for top level occupations

Occupational Title

Management Business and financial operations Computer and mathematical science Architecture and engineering Life, physical, and social science Community and social services Legal Education, training, and library Arts, design, entertainment, sports, & media Healthcare practitioners and technical Healthcare support Protective service Food preparation and serving related Building, grounds cleaning &maintenance Personal care and service Sales and related Office and administrative support Farming, fishing, and forestry Construction and extraction Installation, maintenance, and repair Production Transportation and material moving

Projected 2017 Openings

7,560 7,510 5,505 1,160 3,179 697 652 2,615 3,972 2,504 1,152 1,045 6,818 2,346 3,990 11,601 7,786 201 1,984 1,799 2,180 3,999

On the Job Training

0% 7% 0% 1% 0% 10% 13% 13% 47% 4% 71% 88% 97% 84% 80% 40% 83% 81% 87% 45% 90% 86%

Work Experience

30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 11% 3% 16% 5% 26% 16% 16% 12% 8% 4% 3%

Percent of Openings Requiring Vocational Award or AA Degree

0% 3% 18% 14% 8% 0% 13% 11% 5% 61% 29% 0% 0% 0% 14% 18% 1% 0% 0% 47% 5% 0%

BA or Grad Degree

19% 68% 82% 85% 92% 90% 73% 69% 39% 35% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11%

Degree plus Work Experience

52% 22% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Top five occupations being driven by new job growth Occupational Title

Management

Business and financial operations Computer and mathematical science

Architecture and engineering

Life, physical, and social science

Community and social services Legal Education, training, and library

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, & media

Healthcare practitioners and technical

Healthcare support

Protective service Food preparation and serving related Building, grounds cleaning &maintenance Personal care and service Sales and related Office and administrative support Farming, fishing, and forestry Construction and extraction Installation, maintenance, and repair Production Transportation and material moving

Projected 2017 Openings

7,560

7,510 5,505

1,160

3,179

697 652 2,615

3,972

2,504

1,152

1,045 6,818 2,346 3,990 11,601 7,786 201 1,984 1,799 2,180 3,999

On the Job Training

0%

7% 0%

1%

0%

10% 13% 13%

47%

4%

71%

88% 97% 84% 80% 40% 83% 81% 87% 45% 90% 86%

Work Experience

30%

0% 0%

0%

0%

0% 0% 6%

0%

0%

0%

11% 3% 16% 5% 26% 16% 16% 12% 8% 4% 3%

Percent of Openings Requiring Vocational Award or AA Degree

0%

3% 18%

14%

8%

0% 13% 11%

5%

61%

29%

0% 0% 0% 14% 18% 1% 0% 0% 47% 5% 0%

BA or Grad Degree

19%

68% 82%

85%

92%

90% 73% 69%

39%

35%

0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11%

Degree plus Work Experience

52%

22% 0%

0%

0%

0% 1% 1%

8%

0%

0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Top five occupations being driven by new job growth Closely related occupations Occupational Title

Management Business and financial operations Computer and mathematical science

Architecture and engineering

Life, physical, and social science Community and social services Legal Education, training, and library Arts, design, entertainment, sports, & media

Healthcare practitioners and technical

Healthcare support Protective service Food preparation and serving related Building, grounds cleaning &maintenance Personal care and service Sales and related Office and administrative support Farming, fishing, and forestry Construction and extraction Installation, maintenance, and repair Production Transportation and material moving

Projected 2017 Openings

7,560 7,510 5,505

1,160

3,179 697 652 2,615 3,972

2,504

1,152 1,045 6,818 2,346 3,990 11,601 7,786 201 1,984 1,799 2,180 3,999

On the Job Training

0% 7% 0%

1%

0% 10% 13% 13% 47%

4%

71% 88% 97% 84% 80% 40% 83% 81% 87% 45% 90% 86%

Work Experience

30% 0% 0%

0%

0% 0% 0% 6% 0%

0%

0% 11% 3% 16% 5% 26% 16% 16% 12% 8% 4% 3%

Percent of Openings Requiring Vocational Award or AA Degree

0% 3% 18%

14%

8% 0% 13% 11% 5%

61%

29% 0% 0% 0% 14% 18% 1% 0% 0% 47% 5% 0%

BA or Grad Degree

19% 68% 82%

85%

92% 90% 73% 69% 39%

35%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11%

Degree plus Work Experience

52% 22% 0%

0%

0% 0% 1% 1% 8%

0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Possible occupational segments

1. Life, physical & social science

• 44 detail occupations •

2. Healthcare*

61 detail occupations •

3. Business & Financial

The five segments collectively account for

30 detail occupations • • • Current Jobs = 12,177 • Current Jobs = 24,269 Projected Openings = 3,179 • Most jobs require Post Secondary Degree/Certificate • •

128, 600 current jobs

Projected Openings = 3,656

(28% of county)

Jobs are a mix of training and Post Secondary

25,000 projected job openings (32% of county)

• • • Current Jobs = 38,441 Projected Openings = 7,510 Most jobs require Post Secondary Degree/Certificate •

12,500 projected opening from new growth (48 % of county) 5. Computers Math & Engineering*

• • • • • Projected Openings = 3,972 Jobs are a mix of training and Post Secondary Degree/Certificate • • • • 35 detail occupations Current Jobs = 31,007 Projected Openings = 6,297 Most jobs require Post Secondary Degree/Certificate * Segments made up of two major occupational groups. Healthcare is the combination of Healthcare practitioners & technical occupations (SIC 29) and Healthcare support occupations (SIC 31). Computers Math & Engineering is the aggregate of Computer, math & science occupations (SIC 15) and the engineering portion of SIC 17, Architecture & engineering occupations.

Are there any other occupational segments worthy of inclusion?

Should we consider any occupations where the growth is driven by turnover?

SIC 41: Sales & related occupations

• • • • single largest employing sector (63,000) Transferable skills that accelerate career advancement Over two-thirds require post secondary education Real Estate related occupations make up the biggest segment of this group

SIC 49: Installation, maintenance & repair

• • • Large pct of openings from turnover Nearly 50% of jobs require voc ed or AA degree Fairly high median wage (short pathway to economic security)

Top five occupations being driven by new job growth Closely related occupations Occupational Title

Management

Business and financial operations Computer and mathematical science Architecture and engineering* Life, physical, and social science

Community and social services Legal Education, training, and library

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, & media Healthcare practitioners and technical Healthcare support

Protective service Food preparation and serving related Building, grounds cleaning &maintenance Personal care and service

Sales and related

Office and administrative support Farming, fishing, and forestry Construction and extraction

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Production Transportation and material moving * Projected openings reflects the removal of the architectural occupations from the segment

Projected 2017 Openings

7,560

7,510 5,505 792 3,179

697 652 2,615

3,972 2,504 1,152

1,045 6,818 2,346 3,990

11,601

7,786 201 1,984

1,799

2,180 3,999

On the Job Training

0%

7% 0% 1% 0%

10% 13% 13%

47% 4% 71%

88% 97% 84% 80%

40%

83% 81% 87%

45%

90% 86%

Other candidate occupations Work Experience

30%

0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 6%

0% 0% 0%

11% 3% 16% 5%

26%

16% 16% 12%

8%

4% 3%

Percent of Openings Requiring Vocational Award or AA Degree

0%

3% 18% 14% 8%

0% 13% 11%

5% 61% 29%

0% 0% 0% 14%

18%

1% 0% 0%

47%

5% 0%

BA or Grad Degree

19%

68% 82% 85% 92%

90% 73% 69%

39% 35% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0%

16%

0% 0% 0%

0%

0% 11%

Degree plus Work Experience

52%

22% 0% 0% 0%

0% 1% 1%

8% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0%

0%

0% 0% 0%

0%

0% 0%

Thoughts?

APPENDIX

A detailed listing of occupations within each Cluster

(Lists limited to occupations employing at least 100 workers in San Mateo County)

1. Life, physical & social science

Occupation Title

Medical scientists, except epidemiologists Market research analysts Clinical, counseling, and school psychologists Chemists Biochemists and biophysicists Biological technicians Chemical technicians Environmental scientists and specialists, including health Physicists Microbiologists Life, physical, and social science technicians, all other Physical scientists, all other Survey researchers Urban and regional planners Biological scientists, all other Life scientists, all other Psychologists, all other Environmental science and protection technicians, including health Geoscientists, except hydrologists and geographers

2012 Employment

2,824 2,280 1,138 822 782 694 508 287 268 259 194 190 181 170 169 148 145 123 109

2. Healthcare

(part a)

Occupation Title

Registered nurses Physicians and surgeons Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses Pharmacy technicians Dental hygienists Pharmacists Dentists, general Medical and clinical laboratory technicians Physical therapists Radiologic technologists and technicians Speech-language pathologists Health diagnosing and treating practitioners, Medical and clinical laboratory technologists Surgical technologists Veterinary technologists and technicians Therapists, all other Medical records and health information technicians Emergency medical technicians and paramedics Dietitians and nutritionists Chiropractors Occupational therapists Veterinarians Respiratory therapists Physician assistants Diagnostic medical sonographers Opticians, dispensing

2012 Employment

4,782 2,214 1,139 533 487 444 443 441 376 340 334 312 278 277 257 255 244 232 190 186 172 163 148 135 115 111

2. Healthcare

(part b)

Occupation Titles

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Home health aides Medical assistants Dental assistants Massage therapists Healthcare support workers, all other Medical transcriptionists Veterinary assistants and laboratory animal caretakers Pharmacy aides Medical equipment preparers

2012 Employment

2,263 1,555 1,403 1,114 603 540 421 208 147 125

3. Business & Financial

Occupational Title

Management analysts Personal financial advisors Accountants and auditors Business operation specialists, all other Financial analysts Appraisers and assessors of real estate Financial specialists, all other Employment, recruitment, and placement specialists Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and farm products Human resources, training, and labor relations specialists, all other Compliance officers, except agriculture, construction, health and safety Cost estimators Training and development specialists Loan officers Wholesale and retail buyers, except farm products Tax preparers Compensation, benefits, and job analysis specialists Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators Meeting and convention planners Logisticians Credit analysts Budget analysts Agents and business managers of artists, performers, and athletes Insurance underwriters Financial examiners

2012 Employment

7,391 7,279 5,593 4,599 2,885 1,195 967 827 799 770 757 597 590 509 501 496 485 322 317 315 289 260 206 164 113

4. Art, design & new media

Occupation Title

Photographers Graphic designers Writers and authors Musicians and singers Multi-media artists and animators Public relations specialists Art directors Interpreters and translators Coaches and scouts Editors Merchandise displayers and window trimmers Producers and directors Entertainers and performers, sports and related workers, all other Technical writers Interior designers Music directors and composers Media and communication workers, all other Audio and video equipment technicians Reporters and correspondents Film and video editors Radio and television announcers Commercial and industrial designers Fine artists, including painters, sculptors, and illustrators Artists and related workers, all other Sound engineering technicians Fashion designers Camera operators, television, video, and motion picture

2012 Employment

4,533 1,794 1,442 1,386 1,333 1,312 886 864 816 636 456 455 414 376 319 293 284 212 211 204 202 196 187 157 136 120 111

5. Computers Math & Engineering

Occupation Title

Computer software engineers, applications Computer software engineers, systems software Computer systems analysts Network systems and data communications analysts Computer support specialists Computer specialists, all other Computer programmers Network and computer systems administrators Database administrators Computer and information scientists, research Operations research analysts Statisticians Civil engineers Computer hardware engineers Industrial engineers Biomedical engineers Aerospace engineers Mechanical engineers Electrical engineers Electronics engineers, except computer Electrical and electronic engineering technicians Engineering technicians, except drafters, all other Industrial engineering technicians Electro-mechanical technicians Environmental engineers Mechanical engineering technicians

* List does not include architecture occupations listed in Major Category (SIC 17)

2012 Employment

5,741 4,153 3,609 2,498 2,404 1,984 1,983 1,901 595 458 354 260 699 553 553 476 428 388 340 338 305 194 164 132 127 107

Additional Material

Maneuvering from occupations to industries

Industry employment profile for Accountants & Auditors

Industry Title

Offices of Certified Public Accountants Other Accounting Services Tax Preparation Services Payroll Services Corporate, Subsidiary, and Regional Managing Offices Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals Custom Computer Programming Services

2012 Jobs

4,032 3,722 1,353 1,127 1,104 639 513

2017 Jobs

4,474 4,069 1,469 1,216 1,238 695 547

Change

442 347 116 89 134 56 34

% Change

11% 9% 9% 8% 12% 9% 7%