EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Supply and demand scenarios for EU27

David Blanchard, European Commission

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Outline of presentation

Current situation of EU27 Projections to 2020 Baseline scenario New Energy Policy scenario Moderate and high oil price variants .

General conclusions

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EU27 primary energy demand - 2006 Consumption

1825 Mtoe

Fossil fuels ~

80% of the energy mix

E U2 7 , G R O S S IN LA N D C O N S UM P T IO N ( E N E R G Y M IX in M t o e , %) ( 2 0 0 6 )

Nuclear 255,34 Renewables 129,15 7% 14% So lid fuels 325,23 18% Gas 437,93 24% Oil 673,47 37%

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EU27 indigenous production - 2006 Indigenous production 880 Mtoe Import dependency 54%

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gas EU27 power generation - 2006 Diversified electricity mix but greater dependency on

(from 7 to 21% over 1990-2006)

EU 27 primary energy demand - 2020

2100 2000 Moderate prices Baseline High prices 1900 1800 1700 Moderate prices New Energy Policy High prices 1600 1500 2005 Source: PRIMES model 2010 2015 2020

EU 27 fossil fuel production (Mtoe) - 2020

1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 2005 2010 2015 2020 High prices Baseline Moderate prices High prices New Energy Policy Moderate prices

1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 2005

EU 27 Net imports (Mtoe) – 2020

2010 2015 2020 Moderate prices Baseline High prices Moderate prices New Energy Policy High prices

EU 27 Fuel mix (% in primary energy) – 2020 Baseline - moderate prices RES Nuclear 11,3% 10,0% Oil 35,7% Solids 17,4% Gas 25,7% New Energy Policy - moderate prices Nuclear 12,7% RES 15,8% Oil 35,5% Solids 12,6% Gas 23,3% Baseline - high prices RES 11,6% Nuclear 13,1% Oil 34,1% Solids 17,9% Gas 23,3% New Energy Policy - high prices Nuclear 13,9% RES 16,4% Oil 33,9% Solids 15,1% Gas 20,6%

700

EU27 primary consumption of gas (Mtoe) 2020 -

650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 Moderate prices Baseline High prices Moderate prices New Energy Policy High prices 200 150 100 2005 2010 2015 2020

EU 27 gas imports (Mtoe) - 2020

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 Source: PRIMES model 2010 stable 2015 2020 Moderate prices Baseline High prices Moderate prices New Energy Policy High prices

EU 27 import dependency (%) - 2020

New Energy Policy - high prices New Energy Policy moderate prices Baseline - high prices Baseline - moderate prices 0 10 20

Oil

30 40 50

Gas

60 70 80

Solids

90 100

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Infrastructures development

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Strategic Energy Review » Priority projects » Solidarity and responsability mechanisms 3rd internal market package to stimulate investment along agreed 10-year plans Financing from EIB and others to cover non commercial risk and Recovery Action Plan TEN-E Green Paper (  EU Energy Security and Solidarity Instrument), Communications on LNG, refineries

Infrastructure

priority projects

Baltic interconnection plan North Sea offshore grid LNG N-S interconnections within Central and South-East Europe Southern gas corridor Mediterranean energy ring

Conclusions

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General perspectives

Conclusions of the gas crisis to be drawn .

‘Vision for 2050’ to be prepared .

Cooperation with stakeholders