Transcript NSUS Inception Meeting March 8th 2010

Caribbean Network for Land and Urban Management
Small and Medium Enterprises as
indicators of resilience to climate
change in the Caribbean
Asad Mohammed and Perry Polar
May 5th 2015
UWI, Trinidad
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Many Indicators of significance- shift in IDB lending
Measuring vulnerability to Climate Change- weak data or
unrealistic data expectations
Projectation and the failure of institutional strengthening- the
CNULM and its work
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The Caribbean Network on Urban and Land Management
(CNULM) based at UWI was formed in 2008. Brings together
universities, agencies and organizations involved in Urban
and Land management across the region.
This presentation is based on a technical paper prepared for
the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) entitled “Small
and Medium Enterprises as indicators of resilience to climate
change in the water sector of the Caribbean”
Insights based on review of literature, interviews and
sampling in T&T and Jamaica, focus group and general
observations.
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How does one determine if an infrastructural
project has affected the vulnerability to
Climate Change in a limited geographic area?
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Vulnerability is: “the degree to which a system is susceptible to,
and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,
including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a
function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate
change and variations to which a system is exposed, its
sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity”
Vulnerability, a measure of possible future harm, is not an
observable phenomena which can be easily measured (such as
height). Hence there is need to make the concept operational
by mapping it to observable phenomena (Indicators)
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One to One or Composite indicators/
Index (e.g. Human Development
Index)
Developing vulnerability indicators to
CC is complex:
◦ defining the vulnerable entity (country, city,
household etc.)
◦ wide range of hazards and the political/
economic/ social factors which influence
vulnerability and
◦ requires a predictive model which factors in
time
http://www.ntnu.edu/geography/climate
Hinkel (2011) identified six purposes for assessing
vulnerability:
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To
To
To
To
To
To
identify mitigation targets
identify particularly vulnerable people, regions or sectors
raise awareness of climate change
allocate adaption funds to particularly vulnerable regions
monitor the performance of adaptation policy, and
connect scientific research
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Lending agencies setting climate change targets
◦ IDB has set a target of 25% of total lending to support climate change
initiatives, a substantial increase from the 2006-2009 target of 5%
(McCarthy et al. 2012) . Shifting of lending portfolio to the Caribbean and
Central American region.
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Measuring the change in vulnerability in a specified
geographical area as a result of an infrastructural
improvement or other type of project would be of importance
to both donor and lending agencies as it would determine if
they are meeting their targets.
Project impacts can be direct, additional or serendipitous
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The aim is to develop a method is robust but simple enough
to allow for urban practitioners, Non-Governmental
Organisations (NGOs), business associations, communities
and individuals to participate in the data gathering and
understand the results.
This mirrors monitoring and evaluation procedures being
developed by the IDB in their Emerging and Sustainable Cities
Initiative (ESCI) where a platform for citizens led monitoring
of programmes is developed very much in the form of the
Bogota Como Vamos programme, Colombia.
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Measuring impacts on the community directly is possible.
However, we postulate the rate of change in SME parameters
may be higher than in households and thus more measurable
to determine serendipitous impacts.
Small and Medium Enterprises (including micro) (SMEs):
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discrete enumerable entities
have a range of characteristics which are also measurable
comprise the majority of the private sector, particularly in the Caribbean
normally conduct risk management as part of their daily operations
are impacted by small and large scale interventions of any nature which
can lead to closure (1/0)
Some data may already be collected by national agencies
Can be rapidly surveyed
the health of some are linked to the health of their host community
May successfully lobby for improvements more so than communities
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Measurement of changes the
SME population or
parameters related to SMEs,
we postulate could provide:
◦ an indication of the vulnerability
and adaptive capacity to climate
change of the private sector in the
community
◦ Due to the relationship of some
private sector activities to
community development it can
act as a proxy indicator of
community health.
http://solutions-review.com/backup-disaster-recovery/hp-data-protector
/
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Indicators:
◦ SMEs per area; Type of industry; Registration status of business; Tenure
status; Insurance; Data storage; Organization membership, and
Topography and environmental conditions (originally 34 indicators)
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Categorization:
◦ Very high vulnerability (5), High vulnerability (4), Moderate vulnerability
(3), Low vulnerability (2) and Very low vulnerability (1).
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Weighting and composite score:
◦ Topographical and Environmental conditions (0.25); Type of Industry (0.2);
SMEs per area (0.15); Registration, Tenure status and insurance status
(0.1); Type and location of data storage and organisation membership
(0.05).
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Sampling:
◦ Pre project and post project assessment
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Policy interventions:
◦ Areas with ‘Very High Vulnerability’ and ‘High Vulnerability’ should be
prioritised for interventions to reduce their vulnerability. Areas with
‘Moderate’, ‘Low Vulnerability’ or ‘Very Low Vulnerability’ should be
monitored for changes.
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The higher the density of SMEs the stronger the relationship
to the host community.
SMEs will be classified according to number of employees
based on the national classifications for SME (i.e. < 50
employees for T&T). The number of SMEs in each sample area
(e.g. T&T -81,922 businesses) will be determined and divided
by the area of the country (e.g. T&T -5128 km2) to determine
the range.
Range
e.g. T&T
Vulnerability
0 to national average for Trinidad and Tobago
0-16
Very high vulnerability (5)
National average +1 to (√ national average) 3
17-64
High vulnerability (4)
(√ national average) 3 +1 to (√ national average) 4
65-256
Moderate vulnerability (3)
(√ national average) 4 +1 to (√ national average) 5
257-1024
Low vulnerability (2)
> (√ national average) 5
>258
Very low vulnerability (1)
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In the case of localised disasters, businesses which are highly
dependent on the local community are more vulnerable than
businesses which service a wider geographical range.
If the adaptive capacity of the community is high the business
are likely to survive disaster and conversely if the community
has low adaptive capacity the businesses will suffer.
Type
Linkage
Vulnerability
Food and personal items
Very high linkage
Very high vulnerability (5)
Services
High linkage
High vulnerability (4)
Large retail/ Manufacturing
Moderate linkage
Moderate vulnerability (3)
Construction
Linked
Low vulnerability (2)
Other (national Sugar, oil etc.)
Not highly linked
Very low vulnerability (1)
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An increasing proportion of registered businesses to informal
businesses will give an indication of formal growth in the area
and increasing resilience.
The percentage of registered SMEs relative to informal SMEs
in a project area will be calculated using the formula
(Registered SMEs/ Informal SMEs) X 100.
Registration
Range
Vulnerability
Very low registration
0-20%
Very high vulnerability (5)
Low registration
21-40%
High vulnerability (4)
Moderate registration
41-60%
Moderate vulnerability (3)
High registration
61-80%
Low vulnerability (2)
Very high registration
81-100%
Very low vulnerability (1)
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Tenure status for SMEs can generally be classified in a
continuum from informal to formal development with a range
of intermediate tenure types and perceptions of security.
This indicator is partly paradoxical. If there is ownership of
the premises, the vulnerability level can be higher if both the
premises and business is affected. Nevertheless, when the
premises are owned the vulnerability level decreases as there
is a higher probability of improvements to reduce hazards.
Tenure Status
Vulnerability
Informal tenure (squatting)
Very high vulnerability (5)
Traditional holdings/ family lands
High vulnerability (4)
Rented premises
Moderate vulnerability (3)
Formal tenure without documentation
Low vulnerability (2)
Formal tenure with documentation
Very low vulnerability (1)
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The existence of personal (e.g. life, health etc.) or business
insurance (e.g. fire, public liability, business interruption,
goods in transit, workmen’s compensation etc.) can allow for
financial resources to be available post disaster if the
business was damaged or there was injury or loss of life by
the owner or employees.
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Insurance
Vulnerability
No personal or business insurance
Very high vulnerability (5)
Personal but no business insurance
High vulnerability (4)
Single protection business insurance
Moderate vulnerability (3)
Multiple protection business insurance
Low vulnerability (2)
Both personal and multiple protection business
insurance
Very low vulnerability (1)
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Business information (e.g. accounts, employee information,
supplier information, contracts etc.) will be necessary for
recovery post disaster. Information stored on premises
without backup are at greater risk than information stored off
site. Paper files may be more a risk than electronic files if not
copied.
Data Storage
Vulnerability
No data storage
Very high vulnerability (5)
Data on mobile device
High vulnerability (4)
Single copy paper and electronic files on
premises only
Moderate vulnerability (3)
Paper and electronic files off premises
Low vulnerability (2)
Paper and/or electronic files backed up in
multiple locations
Very low vulnerability (1)
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Some businesses are part of larger business organizations.
Businesses in internationally linked to international Business
Associations (e.g. American Chamber of Commerce of
Trinidad and Tobago) are more likely to conform to
environmental standards than locally formed Associations
(e.g. Chamber of Commerce) (Shah and Rivera 2013).
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Membership
Vulnerability
No organisation membership or links to training and networking
opportunities
Very high vulnerability (5)
No organisation membership but access to training and
networking opportunities
High vulnerability (4)
Membership in a locally formed Associations
Moderate vulnerability (3)
Membership in a internationally linked Association
Low vulnerability (2)
Membership in a internationally linked Association
Very low vulnerability (1)
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The topographical and environmental conditions significantly
determines the vulnerability of SMEs. This generally would not
change drastically with projects unless they involve unless
hard engineering adaptation solutions, for example
associated with large infrastructural projects.
Based on multi-hazard datasets and datasets on location of
businesses, an internal biophysical vulnerability score can be
calculated for SMEs.
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The location of squatter settlement in relation to multi-hazards in
Jamaica (Source: Bailey (2014)
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Climate change may impact national economies but felt by
communities and individual households. As such, there is a
growing need to build the adaptive capacity/resilience of
communities and information that helps to understand such
capacity is required for short, medium and long term
planning.
Trinidad and Tobago is behind Jamaica in spatial multihazard mapping.
Data sharing among organizations needs to be improved
Organisations with climate change data do not often have
SME data
Thank you !
Asad Mohammed
and
Perry Polar
Caribbean Network for Land and Urban Management