Transcript Slide 1

Environmental and Natural Resource Economics
2nd ed.
Jonathan M. Harris
Data Updates for 2008
Copyright © 2008 Jonathan M. Harris
Notes on Data Updates
•
Resource and environmental issues are subject to rapid change. Since
publication of the second edition of Environmental and Natural Resource
Economics in 2006, there have been a number of significant developments.
Many of these are in the area of climate change, leading to a complete
update of Chapter 18 on Global Climate Change, available as a module,
The Economics of Global Climate Change, at:
http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/education_materials/modules.html This module
can be substituted for Chapter 18; new data and figures from the module
are in the Powerpoint file Economics of Global Climate Change Figures and
Tables at: http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/publications/textbooks/ENREupdate.html
•
Other significant areas of change are resource and energy prices. After a
long period of stability or decline, many resource prices turned sharply
upward in 2006-2008. Some of these price changes are reflected in this
update, along with recent energy use trends and projections.
Recent Prices for Selected Cereal Crops
250
Current $US/Tonne
200
Wheat
150
Rice
Maize
100
50
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2008, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural
Prices; USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates;
USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain and Feed Market News.
Recent Price Trends for Selected Minerals
3.5
3
Price ($/lb)
2.5
Copper
(Domestic
Producer,
cathode)
2
Zinc
(Domestic
Producers)
1.5
Lead (North
American
Producer)
1
0.5
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Source: Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey,
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/index.html
2007
est
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2007
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/
U.S. Oil Production and Consumption, 1950-2007
Petroleum (billions of barrels per year)
8
7
U.S. Consumption
6
5
U.S. Production
(total)
4
3
2
U.S. Production
(crude oil)
1
0
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Year
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2007
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
Midyear Crude Oil Price
in 2000 Dollars/Barrel
Crude Oil Price in 2000 Dollars/Barrel
1998-2008
120
100
80
60
40
20
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
Year
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration: World Crude Oil Prices
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wtotusaw.htm
2000 Dollars calculated using price indices from the Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis).
2008 Price Index calculated from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Economic Accounts
3000
100
2500
80
2000
60
1500
40
1000
20
500
0
0
Year
Source: Earth Policy Institute, 2007 Eco-Economy Indicators,
http://www.earthpolicy.org/Indicators/Solar/2007_data.htm.
Production (Megawatts)
120
19
7
19 5
7
19 6
7
19 7
7
19 8
7
19 9
8
19 0
8
19 1
8
19 2
8
19 3
8
19 4
8
19 5
8
19 6
8
19 7
8
19 8
8
19 9
9
19 0
9
19 1
9
19 2
9
19 3
9
19 4
9
19 5
9
19 6
9
19 7
9
19 8
9
20 9
0
20 0
0
20 1
0
20 2
0
20 3
0
20 4
0
20 5
06
Cost ($US/Watt)
World Photovoltaic Production and Cost per Watt
Cost per
Watt 2007
U.S.
Dollars
Annual
Production
Megawatts
Developed Country Energy Intensity
1.050
Btu per US dollar (2000), 100-based
1.000
0.950
0.900
United States
France
0.850
Germany
United Kingdom
0.800
0.750
0.700
0.650
1991 1992
1993
1994 1995
1996
1997 1998
1999
2000 2001
2002
2003 2004
Year
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2004
Energy Intensities, Selected Countries
Energy Consumption (BTU) per dollar GDP
70,000
60,000
United States
50,000
France
Germany
40,000
United Kingdom
India
China
30,000
Brazil
Mexico
20,000
Indonesia
10,000
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2004
2006
Developing Countries Energy Intensity
1.400
Btu per (2000) US Dollar, 100-based
1.300
1.200
1.100
India
1.000
China
Brazil
0.900
Mexico
0.800
Indonesia
0.700
0.600
0.500
0.400
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2004
2004
Per Capita Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emission Rates
(2000)
6
Metric Tons of Carbon
5
4
3
2
1
sh
In
di
a
Br
az
il
hi
na
C
M
ex
ic
o
Fr
an
ce
Ja
pa
n
an
y
er
m
G
Ba
ng
la
de
U
ni
te
d
St
at
es
0
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/
45000
Latin America
(Central and South
America, Mexico)
40000
Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide
Africa
35000
Middle East
30000
Emerging Asia
25000
Transitional
Economies
20000
Other Developed
(Canada, Japan,
Australia/New
Zealand)
Western Europe
15000
10000
United States
5000
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information
Administration, International Energy Outlook 2005 ,
1990-2025 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED CO2 EMISSIONS
Carbon Emissions (Billion Tons Carbon)
12
10
8
550
ppm
6
450
ppm
4
2
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
Year
CARBON STABILIZATION SCENARIOS (450 and 550 ppm)
Source: Adapted from IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, http://www.ipcc.ch/