Transcript Slide 1

Impact of the crisis on the European transport
sector – employment, wages, gender aspect
European Transportworkers Federation
Women`s Committe seminar
Portugal 3-4 November 2010
Béla Galgóczi
[email protected]
Main framework conditions – Autumn 2010
●
●
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2
Clear signs of an end of the recession and a moderate
upturn in developed industrial economies (EU, US, Japan)
but it is volatile and still mostly due to on-off crisis
intervention measures
Two speed Europe: German economy is soaring (with
some of its smaller neighbours linked to it), while South
Europe remains in recession
The labour market situation is further on tense (with the
exception of Germany), unemployment is still growing,
wages are under pressure
The new danger: austerity
●
The debt crisis in the Eurozone has pushed
governments in a number of high-debt and/or
high deficit countries,
● such as Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal and
Spain, to apply draconian austerity measures.
● Under pressure from the financial markets
countries with low debt ratios, such as
Germany and France, have also adopted
consolidation programs.
● This abrupt farewell to stimulus packages and
the expansionary fiscal policy threatens to
sweep away the hesitant and fragile recovery
3
in Europe.
Europe in 2010 – a divided picture
●
GDP is expected to grow (annual average) by 1.0 per cent
in the EU-27 and by 0.9 per cent in the Eurozone in 2010
● Signs of recovery took greater momentum in Germany in
the second quarter of 2010.
● 3.7 per cent year-on-year increase of GDP in the second
quarter of 2010
● helped the Eurozone upwards with year-on-year GDP
growth of 1.7 per cent (instead of the forecast 1.4 per
cent)
● The current upswing was driven by a surge in German
exports that were mostly boosted by the weak euro in the
first half of 2010.
● This upswing seems to be over now…
4
Gross domestic product in 2009 and
prognosis for 2010 (annual growth)
2009
annual change in %
5
2010*
-10
-15
-20
Data Source: European Commission (2009).
5
CY
PL
MT
FR
EL
PT
BE
LU
ES
AT
NL
EA
EU
SK
CZ
UK
SE
DK
DE
IT
BG
HU
RO
IE
FI
EE
SI
LT
-5
LV
0
Unemployment rate, 2009-2010
Jan. 2009
Jan. 2010
in %
25
20
15
10
5
6
LV
ES
EE
LT
IE
SK
HU
PT
FR
EA
EL
EU
SE
FI
PL
IT
CZ
BG
BE
UK
DE
DK
RO
MT
SI
CY
LU
AT
NL
NO
0
Industrial output – spring 2010
●
Industrial output of the EU-27 showed a clear
upswing by over 10% by Spring 2010
● This was however only enough to bring
industrial output back to the level of 2001
● The scar of the economic crisis remains there
● Slide 10 shows the upswing by product
groups, intermediate goods (like steel, car
parts, chemicals) taking the lead by over 10%
year-on-year increase
7
Industrial output: with the upswing back in 2001
Data Source: European Commission (2009).
8
Transport sector – the lifeblood of the economy
Transport,
storage
Total EU27
economy
9
Value added
share
2007
Employment
share
2007
Labour
productivity
growth
(1995–2007
Value added
growth
(1995–2007)
Employment
growth
(1995–2007)
7.0
5.8
3.3
4.0
0.7
100.0
100.0
1.4
2.5
1.0
Source: European Commission
Transport sector – the lifeblood of the economy
●
The global economic crisis and the collapse of world trade in 2009 had a
major impact on the transport sector
World container traffic (TEUs) fell by 26% in 2009, while air freight ton-km
dropped by 10%. Preliminary data for 2009 also indicate a 23% reduction in
rail ton-km and a reduction of just over 21% in road ton-km in the European
Union.
Passenger transport has not been affected as significantly as freight
transport. Still, air passenger transport in IATA member countries dropped
by 3.5% in 2009, about the size of the fall of rail passenger transport (-3.8%)
in the 52 member countries of the International Transport Forum.
●
10
In Western Europe, the share of transport infrastructure investment as a
share of GDP continued to decline to below 0.8% in 2008 (1995: 1%). In
Eastern and Central Europe, the strong recent acceleration in the volume of
infrastructure investment has slowed down. Still investment in inland
transport infrastructure increased over 17% in real terms in the period 20072008, with only 2.5% growth in Western European countries.
Transport sector employment in Europe
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●
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●
11
In the EU-25, a total of 8.2 million people were employed in all
transport services combined in 2004. Railway transport
accounted for just 11 percent, or 900,000 jobs. Rail employment
has fallen in the last few decades and even in the short period of
2000 and 2004, the number of jobs was cut by 14 percent.
Road passenger and freight transport jobs, by contrast, number
some 4.3 million, and air transport jobs number 400,000 (Syndex,
2009).
According to the International Association of Public Transport
(UITP), an estimated 900,000 people are employed in urban public
transport in the 25 member states of the European Union.
Railways can generally be regarded as sources of green
employment. In many countries, the trend over the last few
decades has however been away from this mode of transport, and
towards cars, trucks, and planes. Employment—both in the
operation of railway lines and in the manufacture of locomotives
and rolling stock—has fallen accordingly.
Labour market prospects
By early 2010 unemployment has further grown in all EU
countries, by summer 2010 only signs of stabilisation
in a number of countries although on a very high level
●
High unemployment will remain a huge problem in the
mid-term even if output starts to grow
● It is a further danger that output growth is based on
productivity growth and not on employment growth
● We should not forget that manufacturing output fell by
19% in the first Q of 2009, employment fell by 6%
● In automobile industry output down by 40% in Q1,
employment by 7.5%
● It will take a long time to restore pre-crisis
employment
12
Key role of labour market buffers, 2009Q2 (change compared to 2008Q2)
chapter 2 and 3
10
GDP percentage change
employment rates: percentage point changes
unemployment rates: percentage point changes
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
DK
DE
UK
EU 27
Source: Eurostat online data base (European Labour Force Survey and National Accounts). Age: 16-64.
13
ES
Development of unemployment by gender in the crisis,
2008Q2 and 2009Q2
25
2008Q2
2009Q2
20
15
10
women
5
0
0
NL LU AT CY CZ SI BG GR IT DK MT RO BE PL DE FR UK EU PT SE HU SK FI IE LT EE ES LV
27
5
men
10
15
20
25
14
Data source: Eurostat (2009) European Labour Force Survey (ELFS). Age: 15-64
Unemployment rates by labour market subgroup,
2009Q2
total
gender
age
qualification level
nationality
20
15
10
5
0
female
male
youth prime-age older
(15-24) (25-49) (50-64)
low
medium
high
EU 27 outside EU national
foreigner
27
foreigner
15
Data source: Eurostat (2009) European Labour Force Survey (ELFS). Age: 15-64 if not stated otherwise.
Rate of change of unemployment by labour market
subgroup: 2008Q2-2009Q2 (2008Q2=100)
total
gender
age
education
nationality
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
total
female
male
youth prime-age older
low
(15-24) (25-49) (50-64) (ISCED
0-2)
medium high
(ISCED (ISCED
3-4)
5-6)
EU27 outside national
foreigner EU27
foreigner
16
Data source: Eurostat (2009) European Labour Force Survey (ELFS). Age: 15-64 if not stated otherwise.
Short time working schemes in the economic crisis
17
Company-level crisis-response agreements in transport related sectors
Compa
ny
Count
ry
Sector
Date
Shorttime
work)
Austrian
Airlines
AT
16/2009
X
Brussels
Airlines
BE
10/2009
X
Czech
Airlines
CZ
SAS
DK/N
O/SE
Loxam
FR
Arcando
r
DE
Lufthan
sa
Cargo
TUI
Aer
Lingus
DE
Alitalia
IT
Italtel
IT
Teleco
m Italia
TNT
IT
LOT
PL
TP
PL
British
Airways
UK
G4S
Cash
18
Services
UK
Civil
aviatio
n
Civil
aviatio
n
Civil
aviatio
n
Civil
aviatio
n
Machi
nery
hire
Touris
m and
retail
Civil
aviatio
n
Travel
Civil
aviatio
n
Civil
aviatio
n
Teleco
ms
Teleco
ms
Postal
service
s
Civil
aviatio
n
Teleco
ms
Civil
aviatio
n
Cash
transit
I
DE
IE
NL
Emplye
concess
ions
(pay,
hours)
X
Empl
guara
ntees
X
2009
X
12/2008
X
X
10/2008
X
X
X
3/2009
11/2008
X
9/2008
X
X
X
X
X
X
6/2009
X
X
7/2009
X
X
3/2009
X
10/2009
X
10/2008
X
X
X
6/2009
X
2009
X
Redunda
ncy assist
X
2009
2/2009
Alterna
tives
to
redund
ancies
X
X
Productivity, inflation, wages
In the next slides we show major trends in productivity,
nominal wages and inflation based on the
Commissions Ameco data basis
The first graph shows long-term productivity trends,
where the industry and manufacturing have built up a
huge productivity advantage compared to the whole
economy
During the crisis some of this `productivity reserve`
disappeared, but the advantage remained
Slides 13-14-15 show trends on whole economy level,
as this is what counts at wage negotiations
19
Longer term trend of productivity (before crisis)
annual change
(%)
LP Total Economy
LP Total Industry
7
LP Total Manufacturing
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
20
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Development of productivity, 2009-2010
6
2009
2010
4
2
0
-4
-6
-8
-10
21
LT
RO
SI
LV
DE
FI
EE
LU
UK
NL
CZ
SE
HU
AT
BE
IT
SK
EU
BG
EA
MT
DK
NO
CY
FR
EL
PT
IE
PL
ES
-2
7
6
-1
-2
-3
-4
22
IE
PT
ES
BE
LU
FR
CY
EE
DE
EA
AT
CZ
IT
SI
SK
EU
NL
DK
EL
FI
MT
SE
UK
NO
BG
LV
PL
HU
LT
RO
Inflation by country, 2009-2010
2009
2010
5
4
3
2
1
0
Development of nominal wages, 2009-2010
annual change (%)
10
2009
2010
5
LV
LT
EE
IE
EU
CZ
HU
DE
MT
UK
SE
LU
FR
EA
BE
IT
NL
FI
AT
SI
RO
NO
ES
PL
DK
PT
SK
CY
EL
BG
0
-5
-10
-15
23
Wage share in GDP
DE
as percentage of
GDP
ES
66
UK
FR
64
EU
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
24
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real wage developments, 2009, 2010
●
2009: EU-27 average increased by 0.55%
● + 0.88 per cent in the Euro area
●
●
●
Germany saw a decrease by 1.5 per cent.
The situation was worst in Latvia and Lithuania, where real wages
declined by 11 and 5 per cent,
in 2009, Bulgaria, Greece had the highest increases, by 4%
●
In 2010 real wages to grow by 0.37% in the EU27 and by 0.61% in the Eurozone.
●
Greece: a real wage drop by 3.6% and further CEE
countries + UK and Ireland is also likely to have a
decrease
Spain and Germany: slightly increase (by 0.5 and 0.8
per cent).
●
25
Wage formula in 2009 and 2010
●
●
●
●
●
26
In 2009 the wage formula was `over-performed` by 2.9%
in the Eurozone: 2 % drop in productivity and 0.9%
increase of real wage
Not so in the EU-27 level, where in 2009 both
productivity and real wages decreased by 2%
For 2010 for the Euro area expects a lower real wage
increase (1.5 per cent) than that of productivity (almost
2%).
For the EU-27, again under-performing by 1.6%, with a
productivity increase of 2 per cent and a real wage
increase of 0.4 per cent.
Eurozone (without Germany) rather balanced, Germany
and non-Eurozone MS under pressure
Conclusions
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27
Even if the vague signs of an upturn get manifested in
the rest of the year, auterity packages pose a huge
threat
Labour market is further on under stress
2009 was only an exception that the wage formula was
fulfilled (but only in the Eurozone without Germany)
Wage increases would be a precondition for recovery
and the interest of all players as consumer demand is
key in overcoming the crisis!
GERMANY should take the lead (in wage increases) –
signs of dynamic wage inreases (2.7% real wage
inrease forcast for 2010 – largest in a decade)