Transcript ICES-work-2015-and-beyond

ICES work 2015 and beyond
NSAC EXCOM 23rd September 2014
Poul Degnbol
• Recurrent advice:
– Elasmobranchs (incl rays and skates in the NS)
16/10; Norway pout 3/10, Pandalus
• Update based on Q3 surveys in 2014 mid
nov
• Special requests:
– NS Haddock (EU/Norway) – not feasible
anymore
– Crangon (Germany/Netherlands)
ICES work in 2014
•
Benchmarks early 2015:
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WKNSEA
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•
–
WKPLE
•
•
•
Risk based approach to by-catch species
Landing obligation – methods for survival. WKMEDS process
FMSY as ranges
New advice format for fisheries focus and integration
Popular advice
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–
–
•
Sandeel end february
NS main package 30/6
Sharks 30/9
Approach and methods development – w implications for advice
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–
–
–
•
ple-eche, ple-skag, ple-2123, Ple-24-32
23-27 February 2015
Recurrent TAC advice
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–
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•
cod-347d, wit-nsea, Mur-347d, Sol-nsea
2-6 February 2015, Data compilation 10-13 November 2014
Publication of ‘popular advice’ sheets shortly after main advice
Further development of overview and availability
Feed back and suggestions very welcome!
ICES work can be followed
–
–
On the external webpage http://www.ices.dk/community/Advisory-process/Pages/default.aspx
In details /real time on sharepoint http://groupnet.ices.dk/Workplan/default.aspx
ICES work in 2015
• WKNSEA
– cod-347d, wit-nsea, Mur-347d, Sol-nsea
– 2-6 February 2015, Data compilation 10-13
November 2014
• WKPLE
– ple-eche, ple-skag, ple-2123, Ple-24-32
– 23-27 February 2015
Benchmarks NS 2015
Low risk –
No
immediate
regulation,
observe
WKLIFE 2013 + 2014
High risk –
technical
measures/
mitigation
Risk based approach to by-catch species PSA
Data & knowledge provision
for biodiversity & ecosystem function
high
medium
low
1
Integrating Cat
mixed
evidence & objectives
Data & knowledge
provision for yield
Cat 2
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Cat 6
Data for classical fisheries assessments AND
ecosystem impact assessment
VMS data Bottom gear
activity 2009
and 2012.
2009
2012
Bottom trawl, beam trawl,
seines and dredges.
Not including Spanish, Icelandic,
Faroese, Russian data
• Workshop on Methods for Estimating Discard Survival (WKMEDS)
– Develop guidelines and where possible identify best practice for
undertaking discard survival studies (using the framework detailed in
the report of STECF Expert Working Group EWG 13-16) (2014
Workshop);
– Identify approaches for measuring and reducing, or accounting for, the
uncertainty associated with mortality estimates;
– Critically review current estimates of discard mortality, with reference
to the guidelines detailed in 1, and collate existing validated mortality
estimates;
– Conduct a meta-analysis, using the data detailed in 3, to improve the
understanding of the explanatory variables associated with discard
mortality and identifying potential mitigation measures;
• Resulting in guidelines
• Meetings 2014 (february and november), 2015 and 2016
developing sections of guidelines
Landings obligation – survival guidelines
• The effects of discard ban not predictable
• ICES advice will
– Be based on historical data (past practices)
including past discards in advice
– As data under the new regime become
available advice will be based on those
Landings obligation - advice
• Commission will incorporate FMSY as a range in
future management plan proposals
• Ranges cannot be established on basis of science
• ICES can advice on candidate ranges based on
– ‘Pretty good yield’ (say more than 95% of MSY)
– Limited by precautionary reference points
• ‘Placeholder’ ranges have been proposed for
Baltic stocks, to be updated based on actual
assessments / benchmarks in March 2015
• Expect Commission to ask for ranges prior to
further management plan proposals
FMSY as ranges
0.8
0.7
MSY
95 % of
MSY
0.6
Yield
0.5
0.4
FMSY range identified as
‘pretty good yield’ (say more than 95% of MSY)
and limited by Fpa
0.3
0.2
0.1
F MSY
F pa
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Fishing mortality
Range
New advice format
• Address fisheries issues (mixed fisheries
issues, bycatch, ecosystem impacts)
• Integrate with ecosystem advice (interactions
between fisheries and other sectors)
• Simplification
• Multiple communication uses
• Efficiency
Structure of recurring advice
For each ecoregion
• Ecosystem overviews with Ecosystem advice
•Advice linked to interaction between economic
sectors
• Fisheries advice
•Single stock advice qualified by
•Interactions between fisheries, mixed fisheries and
ecosystem impacts of fisheries
• Single stock background information
Includes an overview of the stock advice with links to
the latest single stock advice sheets
Stock
Advice
Brill in Subarea IV
(North
Sea)
and
Divisions
IIIa
(Skagerrak – Kattegat)
and VIId,e (English
Channel)
New data (landings and lpue and effort
data) available for this stock do not
change the perception of the stock.
Therefore, the advice for this fishery in
2015 is the same as the advice for 2014:
ICES advises on the basis of the ICES
approach to data limited stocks that catches
should be no more than 2727 tonnes. All
catches are assumed to be landed.
Cod in Subarea IV
(North
Sea)
and
Divisions
VIId
(Eastern Channel) and
IIIa West (Skagerrak)
ICES advises on the basis of the EU–
Norway management plan that catches in
2015 should be no more than
35 486 tonnes. If discard rates do not
change from those in 2013, this implies
landings of no more than 26 713 tonnes.
Cod in Division IIIa New data (catch and surveys) available
East (Kattegat)
for this stock do not change the
perception of the stock. Therefore, the
advice for 2015 is the same as the advice
for 2013 and 2014 : ICES advises on the
basis of precautionary considerations that
there should be no directed fisheries and
bycatch and discards should be minimised.
Stock advice
Link to stock Date of release
sheets
MSFD advice
• Commission is reviewing the decision on
descriptors
• ICES provides input regarding D3 (fish stocks),
D4 (foodwebs) and D6 (benthic habitats)
• Inputs regarding monitoring
• Upcoming: measures
Next steps towards EAF support - ICES
Fisheries:
Incorporate species interactions – 'considerations'
Incorporate drivers and impacts
Baltic cod as demonstration case
Integrated assessments
IA groups now established for all east Atlantic ecoragions (incl NS
and Baltic) plus NW Atlantic
Demonstration integrated advice
ICES contributes to MSFD development
Descriptor updates
Integrated monitoring
Main challenge: the institutions we speak to do not communicate efficiently
nor have matching competemces
l
l
l
l
MIRAC meeting 2015:
During week 3 (12 – 16 / 1 2015, ICES HQ)
General stakeholder meeting plus a meeting with specific CFP focus
Thanks