Transcript 投影片 1

Presentation on
Malacca Straits :
Refined Risk Assessment
By Harold Hai
and Paul Chan,
on 2nd May, 2007
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Purposes of the Assessment
1.
Investigate likely causes to damages in various natural
resources – Retrospective Risk Assessment
2.
Define likely harm to ecological system & human health –
Prospective Risk Assessment
3.
Encourage management intervention
4.
Provide some conclusion & recommendation for strengthening
marine pollution risk management in the Straits
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Malacca Strait Map
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1. Initial Risk Assessment
(Retrospective)
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A.
Decline in habitats
A1. Mangroves
How bad ?

All the 3 counties in average lost their
mangroves substantially by over 50% in the last
20 years
- Indonesia – largest mangroves area and with
highest lost
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A.
Decline in habitats
A2. Peat Swamp Forest
How bad?



Indonesia – about 50% lost
Malaysia – about 77% lost
Singapore – Comparatively small
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A.
Decline in habitats
A3. Coral Reef
How bad ?
1. See Conditions of growth
2. Indonesia – 42% poor, 29% fair, 24% good and only 5%
excellent
3. Malaysia – Most in fair conditions
– none in excellent condition
4. Singapore – highly stressed – No analyses of changing
diversity
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A.
Decline in habitats
A4. Seagrass beds
How bad ?
1. No formal quantitative data on areal coverage
2. 50 species known seagrass in the world
3. 12 founded in Indonesia
4. 9 found in Malaysia
5. 7 found in Singapore
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A. Decline in habitats
A5. Soft bottom habitats
How bad ?
1. No formal quantitative data on areal coverage
2. Quality is more concerned
- originally support commercial and non-commercial
benthic species
- affected recently by chemical including TBT
- cause female gastropods imposex
- negative correlation to shipping route
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Why ?
1. Mostly by anthropogenic destruction for economical
development
2. Pollution products derived from land activities
e.g. Metals, Pesticides, untreated sewage and industrial
discharge, oil spills and herbicides
3. Logging
4. Sedimentation (by poor upland management)
5. Fishing intensity & trawling
6. Massive land reclamations
7. Natural disasters e.g. storms or diseases
8. Deposit of mining spoils and tailings
9. Excessive deposition of silt due to deforestation and blast
fishing
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Then….
1. Reduced protection from coastal erosion, typhoon and
floods, nursery ground for commercial and noncommercial fish and invertebrates
2. Reduced protection from endangered species and
conserving biodiversity
3. Reduced fishing production
4. Economic losses from reduced tourism
5. Increase sediment
6. Contamination of marine food products
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B.
Biodiversity
B1. Non-commercial Species
How bad ?

A lot of indigenous fish once abundant now become rare,
endangered or extinct e.g. Alosa toil is rare and Lactarius
lactarius is now extinct, sittings of sting ray have decreased
and dugongs were once common in Strait but now rare
Why ?

Loss of major habitats

Direct ecotoxicological effect of contaminants of various
kinds
Then…

Loss of contribution to stablility and functioning of
ecosystems

Reduce aesthetic and tourist attraction
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B.
Biodiversity
B2.
Commercial Species
How bad ?

Reducing Catch per unit effort

Fishermen are moving away from the Straits to other waters
Why ?

Overfishing

More effective fishing methods – ultrasonic fish detector, larger fishing net
with finer holes etc.

Increase of fishermen since 1960

Soft bottom species e.g. seaweeds, horseshoe crabs. Shrimps, bivalves,
gastropods, seacucumber and sea urchins were trawled indiscriminately

Seabed were totally destructed
Then…

Biodiversity and overall quantities of commercially valuable species were
exploited

Economical return on fishing were then reduced
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C. Human Health
How bad ?
 Gastrointestinal and other communicable
diseases was not totally correlated with the water
quality or contaminated seafood consumption or
dermal exposure
 Relevant figure on morbidity is unavailable
 Some particular acute cases due to specific
accidents
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2. Refined Risk Assessment
(Prospective)
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2.
-
Refined Risk Assessment Stage
(Prospective)
Prospective Risk Assessment
To estimate the likelihood of adverse effect to targets
(humans, ecosystem in Malacca Straits) from existing
and might existing environmental conditions.
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Prospective Risk Assessment
For human health risk assessment;
- RQ = (MEL or PEL)/ (PNEL or LOC)
For ecosystem risk assessment
- RQ = (MEC or PEC)/ (PNEC or STD)
-
Note:
MEL = measured exposure level; PEL = predicted exposure level;
PNEL = predicted no (observable) effect level; LOC = Level of concern;
MEC = measured environmental concentration; PEC = predicted env. conc.;
PNEC = predicted no effect conc.; STD = Standards (worldwide/ local).
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Prospective Risk Assessment




RQ >= 1
Give a signal of problem which increase with
size of ratio;
RQ <1
The likelihood of effect is low/ a situation of
no concern.
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Prospective Risk Assessment

RQ is not given a precise probability of adverse
effect since PNEC (eco-toxicological &
toxicological data), MEC & MEL (sampling &
analytical techniques), PEC/ PEL (assumptions)
depend on different variables.
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Prospective Risk Assessment
Major concerns:
1. Heavy metals
 in water (RQ = MECs/STDs)
 in sediments (RQ = MECs/ Critical conc.)
 Human health (RQ = Daily Metal Intake/
Tolerable Daily Intake)
 Heavy metals: As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni,
Pb, Zn)
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Prospective Risk Assessment
2. Pesticide
 In water (MEC/ STD)
 In sediment (MEC/Critical Sediment conc)
 Human health (Daily Intake/ LOC)
 Pesticides: DDT, Endrin, Heptachlor, etc (totally
7 kinds).
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Prospective Risk Assessment
3. TBT
 Include conc. in water, in sediment & to human health.
4. Nutrients (N, P) & Oxygen Demand
 In water body
5. Total Suspended Solids
 In water body
6. Coliforms (total & fecal)
 In water and sediments, to human health.
7. Oil, Grease, Petroleum, Hydrocarbons and Tar Balls
 In water, sediments and to human health.
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Prospective Risk Assessment


Risk assessment also consider accidental
situation such as accidental spillage of oil
tankers in sea
Accidental discharge was measured to be major
contribution of MEC in water, so must be taken
into account.
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Prospective Risk Assessment



By the analysis of all concerned categories of
materials, a comparative risk assessment based
on RQ of different materials was produced to
help easier understanding and deciding the risk
management.
RQ< 1, no immediate concern;
RQ>1000, immediate risk reduction measures.
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Prospective Risk Assessment
Table 44.
Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities
Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Water-borne Contaminants
Contaminants
RQs
<1
Metals
1-10
10-100
100-1000
----------------------------------
>1000
Cu
•
Pesticides
TBT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
•
•
BOD
-----------------------------------
TSS
-----------------------------------
Oils and
Hydrocarbons
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
••
Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs
given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated
with filled circles.
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Prospective Risk Assessment
Table 45.
Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Ecological Entities
Within the Straits of Malacca Exposed to Sediment-associated Contaminants
Contaminants
RQs
<1
1-10
10-100
100-1000
>1000
•
Metals
--------------------
Cu
Dieldrin •
Pesticides
•
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Aldrin •
TBT
Endosulfan
----------------
Oils and
Hydrocarbons
------------------------
Lines show the range of RQs determined in the prospective analysis and based on MECs
given in the Profiles. Selected compounds or sites having particularly high RQs are indicated
with filled circles.
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Prospective Risk Assessment
Table 46.
Comparative Risk and Uncertainty Assessments for Human
Health from various Contaminants
Contaminants
RQs
<1
1-10
10-100
100-1000
Copper
--------------------------------------------------------------
Zinc
--------------------------------
Cadmium
------------------------------------------------------------
Lead
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mercury
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iron
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Chromium
-----------------------------
Manganese
-----------------------------
Nickel
---------------------------
Arsenic
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pesticides
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Coliforms
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lines show the range of RQs determined in the propective analysis and based
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on PECs
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Prospective Risk Assessment
Implication for risk management
1. immediate action to heavy metals after identified the
source;
2. TSS for ecological system;
3. Oil and hydrocarbons are a cause of concern;
4. Pesticides are a worry in sediments;
5. Potential health effects from contaminated shellfishes
and fishes.
6. Coliforms from sewage pollution represents better
sewage treatment required.
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Summary and Recommendations
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
1. Development of a coordinated monitoring
program for natural resources
- More precise and consistent inventory of quality
and quantity of natural resources
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
2. Development of a coordinated monitoring
program for chemical contaminations
- Standardization of measuring method and
analytical procedure to obtain mutually recognized
and consistent data
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
3. Development of exposure models
-
Model incorporating hydrodynamic profile in the
Straits
Distribution and decomposition of contaminants
can be more precisely predicted
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
4. Harmonization of cirtical concentrations
- PNEC can be mutually agreed
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
5. Detailed risk assessment of metals in water
- A more refined study on sources and
exposure levels on certain extraordinary
hazardous metal e.g. Hg and Cu
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
6. Determination of sources and critical effect
levels for suspended solids
- A more detail analysis on land-based activities
and mangroves to the level of suspended solid
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
7. Oil and hydrocarbon contamination
- Needs to know more about composition and
distribution
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
8. A risk-based strategy for avoiding ecological
impacts from oil spills
- To minimise exposure of sensitive habitats
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
9. Ecological risk from nutrients
-
Identify certain signs of eutrophication
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
10. More refined risk assessment of pesticides in
sediments
- A more extensive and carefully designed sampling
program for verifying the mathematical modeling of
distribution
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
11. Human health effects from marine
contaminants
-
A more detail assessment on likely impacts from
major contaminant
- More effective treatment facilities for industrial
and municipal sewage discharges
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
12. Further consideration of causes of decline in
commercial fisheries
- A more intensive study on causes of decline
- A review of methods for assessing fish stocks and
sustainable yields
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Recommendations from the Assessment Report
13. Benefit-cost analysis as an integral part of risk
management program
- Benefits from improved management by avoiding
damages should be noticed
- A drive or incentive for littoral states and related
parties to improve their environmental policies
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Additional Recommendations
1.
2.
3.
Remedial policies should be adopted by the littoral
states to mitigate the further deterioration of the
environment
To establish contingency plan to tackle with
accidental oil or chemical spillages.
To identify certain parameters of continuous
monitoring on predicting the triggering of seasonal
eutrophication before it occurs
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Additional Recommendations
4.
5.
6.
Long term agreement on sustainable fishing practices
should be ratified among the littoral states like what
some European countries are doing e.g. max. catch
weight per trip and minimum weight per fish etc.
More stringent environmental policies and legislation
should be established among the littoral states.
An open and convenient complaint system,
investigation organisations and effective punitive and
self-adjustable mechanism should be established
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Additional Recommendations
7.
8.
9.
Physical observation and primary data should be collected
particularly for this study to verifying the accuracy of the
MECs collected, especially for those without significant
inventory of data, e.g. oil and hydrocarbons
Clinical survey data of acute cases on human health by
seafood poisoning should be collected for further refined risk
assessment
A simplified and concise version of this report should be
written for a better communication with non-environmental or
technical personnel, government officers, public media or even
general public who are the in fact the decision makers and
influencers of environmental policies.
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Additional Recommendations
10. The formulation of localized NOEL due to differences in
environmental conditions and susceptibility levels of
ecological species and human beings to relevant contaminants
11. Synergistic effect of mixture of chemicals in different
territories should be identified and assessed.
12. More effective sewage water treatments should be installed for
improve the discharges to the Straits.
13. Hong Kong and Chinese governments should carry out similar
extensive refined risk assessment periodically for Hong Kong
and PRD regions due to the serious environmental damages
on ecological system and potentially on human health.
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Conclusion

ERA is a vital tool in communicating all the stake
holders concerned including government, relevant
trade and industries organisations, citizens and green
groups etc. for their awareness and actions on
improving the environment.

Without any change in their mindset, legislation,
policy making, mode and practice of industrial
operations and daily habits, it is just useless.
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Conclusion

This Malacca straits research provides a good example
for HK government and local expertise to consider and
even to force building up a local continuous ecological
data-bank so as to reserve valuable natural habitats.
Also, this helps to provide information for conducting
SEA, EIAs and improve accuracy and efficiency of
EIAs in HK.
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Conclusion

In prospective RA, uncertainly analysis was considered
and conducted for each contaminant/ pollutant. One
major uncertainty parameter in PNEC/ PNEL is no
local standard. Thus, standard in other countries such
as EU is applied that is not truly appropriated for local
conditions. Limited baseline data cannot give a good
estimation of risk/impact. Set up a local standard and
data are must.
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Conclusion

In geological location, Malacca Straits is downstream of
Delta region. Exchange of ecological data/ research in
future provides a broad view of source of impact in
this SE asia sea region.
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Thank you !
Any Question ?
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