Transcript Slide 1

A FORESIGHT STUDY OF TECHNOLOGYENHANCED PROFESSIONAL LEARNING IN
EUROPE
Challenges, Technologies, and
Future Trends
Lampros Stergioulas
Department of Information Systems & Computing,
Brunel University, West London, UK
Objectives of this study
The ultimate aim is to build a roadmap that will:
 integrate business drivers with enabling technologies
to provide a framework for coordinating R&D to
meet the challenges for European Technology
Enhanced Professional Learning (TEPL)
 develop a value accumulating, ongoing roadmapping
process with a high potential for sustainability
 Promote a knowledge network of roadmapping that
amplifies the efforts of various groups and crystallizes
them at European level
 Time line: 0-10 years from now
What is a roadmap?
 A Roadmap is not a tool for predicting the future
 A Roadmap is a time-based plan that defines
– where we are (state of the art)
– where we want to go (vision statements)
– how to get there (action plan)
 A Roadmap is a learning process for the interested
community
Components of the ProLearn roadmap
Where we want to go?
How to get there?
Vision: tacit idea representing the desired future state
Expressed future state: instantiation of the vision in a formal and
systematic way (vision statements = challenges)
The underlying concepts, their contexts and their relationships are analysed,
articulated and modelled
Gap analysis: between the current state of the art and desired future state
(critical capabilities needed to turn into reality one or more vision statements)
Actions: a portfolio of short-, mid- and long-term actions and
recommendations, based on the gap analysis
Desired future
“finding the currents that lead you where you want to go” (proactive), instead of
“floating in the currents you are presently in” (reactive)
Everyone tries to formulate their own desired future,
as a result of this no one will have the desired future,
and the reality will focus on negotiation, ongoing interplay
that will actually form the future.
our approach is to start by inventing the future and to “plan backwards” from
there in order to link up with today
Roadmap framework
 In our context, roadmapping is a
knowledge creating process that
spirals outwards from the core partners
of our Network (individuals, groups, the
whole Network) to the entire scientific
community and industry.
 Therefore, it is both a learning activity
and a knowledge creation process for the
community that builds the roadmap.
 The key to knowledge creation lies in the
four SECI modes of knowledge
conversion, which occur when tacit
knowledge and explicit knowledge interact
with each other (Nonaka).
“ Because tacit
knowledge includes
mental models and
beliefs in addition to
know-how, moving
from tacit to the
explicit is really a
process of articulating
one’s vision of the
world – what it is and
what it ought to be.”
Nonaka
SECI Modes of knowledge creation
• Socialization (sharing tacit knowledge): The process of
sharing experiences (tacit knowledge), thereby creating
new tacit knowledge.
• Externalization (converting tacit knowledge into explicit
knowledge): The process of articulation and conversion
of tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge.
• Combination (Systematic combining of explicit
knowledge): The process of restructuring and
aggregating explicit knowledge into new explicit
knowledge.
• Internalization (Internalizing new knowledge as tacit
knowledge by the organization): The process of
reflecting on explicit knowledge and embodying explicit
knowledge into tacit knowledge.
THE ROADMAPPING KNOWLEDGE PROCESS MODEL
– A continuous process
Systemizing ba
Knowledge
OUTPUT
Manifestos
Gap Analysis
Reflective
Analysis
tools
INPUT
Context Maps
Connecting
Deducing
Conceptual
modeling
tools
Combination
Explicit
Internalization
Associate
Core
Tacit
Community building
events
OUTPUT
Explicit Vision
Collective
perspective
INPUT
- Scenarios
- Trends
- Seed visions
Socialization
INPUT
networking
Activities
projects
Originating ba
Experiencing
Empathizing
OUTPUT
Increased
individual
understanding
Tools
supportin
g debate
Articulating
Conceptualizing
OUTPUT
Increased
Understanding
Actions &
time plans
Scientific Community & Industry
Externalization
Reflecting
Embodying
Dialoguing ba
Exercising
ba
INPUT
Manifestos
Gap Analysis
Scenarios
 25 scenarios were processed and analyzed
 Scenario sources:
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PROLEARN: 11 scenarios
“Transforming knowledge 2003”, Paul Lefrere: 7 scenarios
Time2Learn project: 1 scenario
ROCKET project: 2 scenarios
Ariel Project: 4 scenarios.
Scenario analysis process
The Scenarios
Training Contexts
The driving forces
behind the scenario,
Why this scenario?
Drivers
Where the focus
should be if we wanted
to realize the scenario?
Challenges
Political
Socio-Cultural
Business
Priority Areas
Technology
The primary focus of
the scenario
The six main sessions of the symposium:
Industry challenges in Professional Learning: Time-toproficiency, Competency and Human Capital Management. How to
promote Learning Culture, Knowledge Sharing and Innovation?
The theme was introduced by Richard Straub (IBM, eLIG)
Trends that are shaping the E&T in Europe: economical, sociocultural and political. The theme was introduced by Claudio Dondi
(Scienter)
Learners perspective: Continuous Professional Development,
employability, flexibility and survivability of European citizens; New
paradigms of learning. The theme was introduced by Mervyn Jones
(Imperial College, IACEE)
Technology trends and their impact on learning, training,
processes and organizations. The theme was introduced by
Wayne Hodgins (Autodesk, IEEE)
New forms of organization: partnerships, changing workplace
organizations, networked organizations, value-networks. The
theme was introduced by Wayne Hodgins (Autodesk, IEEE)
Prolearn perspective: Future directions of Technology Enhanced
Professional Learning - Learning Manifesto. The theme was
introduced by Erik Duval (Ariadne) and Vana Kamtsiou (NCSR
Demokritos)
Symposium main conclusions
 Greater understanding is needed of what the knowledge worker needs are
and what the skills and competencies in the new knowledge society and
knowledge work should be.
 An important change relating to the organization of jobs and company
structures is emerging, which tends towards the demise of hierarchy as
well as of specific titles and job descriptions, with a strong tendency towards
flexible types of jobs defined by the particular “project” assignments.
 An increased imbalance of education was identified between higher ranked
and lower ranked employees, as well as between small and large
enterprises. In reality, “the future is already here but unequally distributed”.
 The most-likely-to-succeed future type of training will be the “personalized
learning”, which offers to the specific person the right skills, at the right time
within the specific context (work, social, technical, cognitive etc).
 We also observe an increasing convergence between formal and
informal training.
Symposium main conclusions
 The vision for the future Knowledge Workers focuses on three main axes:
 promotion of innovation, creativity, proficiency and flexibility in learning and
work,
 maximum employability of the European labor force, and
 equal opportunities in education and career.
 The management of human resources has to change and learning has to
be integrated with the working and business processes.
 Time-to-proficiency becomes increasingly important in order for the
European companies to stay competitive.
 The training programmes have to be aligned with the strategic goals of
the enterprise.
 A tendency of convergence between work and personal life is
observed, where the lines between learning and work, work and leisure,
and also formal, informal, non formal forms of learning, are becoming
more and more blurred.
 The need of greater flexibility in professional development is a stressinducing factor for the employees, as it creates intense feelings of
insecurity towards work.
Major Trends in TEPL
Today
Producers
Standardized
In-house
Vertical
position-based
hierarchy
entity
Tomorrow
Market
Consumers
Products and
services
Company structures
Outsourced
Horizontal projectbased interdisciplinary
teams
Self –employed
Employees
National identities
Customized
People
Interests & motives
Aging
Young
More independence
Close supervision
Employees
More responsibility
Major Trends in TEPL
Today
entity
Simpler
Slowly changing
Serial (8 hours)
Low capital costs
More complex
Skills
Work patterns
Business processes
Value chains
Production of goods
Tomorrow
Faster changing
Parallel (24/7/365)
Customer perceived
values
Value nets
Companies
Provision of services
Powerful trends
Work Longer
Globalization
Competition
…make
us…
Work harder
Travel more
Labor shortage
Work complexity
Learn faster
eLearning market trend: towards a commodity market
and commercialization of learning
Core vision of TEPL in 2015
“Support knowledge workers with technology-enhanced learning
by promoting motivation, performance, collaboration, innovation
and commitment to lifelong learning.”
A knowledge worker is someone who:
 doesn’t just consume knowledge but who is able to create it
 reflects critically on every level of activity in the organization
and contributes back.
The Six Prolearn Vision Statements
“Everyone should be able to learn
anything at anytime at anyplace”
“Access to professional
learning for all – extending
the knowledge based
society”
(personalization – adaptation)
IST challenge
V6
V1
Social inclusion
“Socio-economic systems
– market take up”
TEPL
V5
V2
Socio-economic
Systems :
Market take-up
V4
“Learning as a means to
increase employability”
(flexibility and survivability
of employees)
Learner’s perspective:
Continuous personal
Development
Recognition and portability
Of learning achievements
(3G, IpV6, nanotechnologies,
convergence, web services,
ambient intelligence
scenario)
V3
“Learning as a means to
support and enhance work
performance”
Industry challenges:
•Performance support
•Continuous improvement
•Incremental development
•Processed based integrated
learning)
“Promote innovation and
creativity and
entrepreneurship”
Industry challenges:
•Innovation
•Entrepreneurship
•ability to change
•Competency and performance
management