Transcript Political Research and Statistics

Political Research and Statistics
8/26/2013
Readings
• Bring your cd's and a flash drive to class on
Thursday
• Pollack Textbook
– Introduction
– Ch: 10 Thinking Empirically, Thinking
Probabilistically
– Ch: 1 The Measurement of Concepts (6-13)
OPPORTUNITIES TO DISCUSS
COURSE CONTENT
Office Hours
• The University Requires faculty hold 5 hours a
week
• I hold 14 hours a week
Office Hours
• When
– Monday, Wednesday and Friday 10-12
– Tuesday and Thursday 8-12
– And by appointment
• Where
– Doyle 226B
• Phone – 428-1294
• Email- [email protected]
ABOUT THE CLASS
What’s New for 2013
• Four Exams instead of three
– Less high-stakes testing
– Less information to study for each exam
– Exams will be shorter in length
• That means we will have class today
Important things from the Syllabus
• Attendance
• Homework
• The Paper
Electronic Device Policy
• The use of cell phones,
smart phones, or other
mobile communication
devices is disruptive, and is
therefore prohibited during
class. Except in
emergencies, those using
such devices must leave the
classroom for the
remainder of the class
period.
About the Computers
• Use them for class, not
for personal business
• If you can only use
them for evil, turn them
off.
The Textbooks
The Textbook
• 4th Edition (older editions
are different)
The Workbook
• 4th Edition (older editions
will not work)
We need to cover a lot of ground
• This is the only
methods/stats class for
POLS and ENSP
• It counts for your
computer class
• Math is not hard, if it
was you wouldn’t be in
college
Asking Questions
• Don’t Be afraid
• Assume someone else
has the same question
• Don’t ask your friends
• Come to office hours
Course overview
In this class we cover the essential statistics used
in the social sciences
• The goal of this course is to prepare you for a
career in the social sciences or a related field.
• The class begins with research design and
culminates with multivariate regression.
Course Overview
• Methodological proficiency is ascertained in
three ways
– computer competency assignments
– statistical computation and interpretation homework
– in-class examinations.
• The Class culminates with a semester length
research paper in which you formulate and
empirically test a hypothesis using the
appropriate methodology.
CLEARLY STATED LEARNING
OUTCOMES
Course Learning Objectives
1. Students will learn the research methods
commonly used in behavioral sciences and
will be able to interpret and explain empirical
data.
2. Second, as this course fulfills the
Computational Skills portion of the University
degree plan, students will achieve
competency in conducting statistical data
analysis using the SPSS software program.
Course Learning Objectives
3. Students will learn the basics of polling and be
able to analyze and explain polling and survey
data.
4. Students will learn the basics of research design
and be able to critically analyze the advantages
and disadvantages of different types of design.
5. Students will be able to use the statistical tools
learned in class to test a political research
hypothesis and present these results in a
research paper.
THINKING ANALYTICALLY IN THE
SOCIAL SCIENCES
We focus on empirical research
• actual objective
observation of political
and social phenomena.
• Things that can actually
be measured
The Opposite of Empirical is Normative
• judgments about what
should be.
• The answers depends
on who is answering the
question.
• Normative statements
are unscientific.
THINKING SCIENTIFICALLY
What is a Social Science
• The application of
empirical research in
which the researcher
adheres to certain welldefined principles for
collecting, analyzing
and evaluating political
information
• Examples
–
–
–
–
–
Psychology
Sociology
Economics
Political Science
Public Policy
What is Science?
• It has to do with the
way questions are
formulated “Political
Research”
• And Tests these through
a set of rules and forms
“and statistics”
The Goal is Scientific Knowledge
• Study society scientifically and empirically
• Develop answers to questions about society
MAKING KNOWLEDGE SCIENTIFIC
Objective
• We Look at things without bias
Balanced
• Good research examines the question from
more than one point of view or one variable
Evidence
• Good Research is
Supported by Evidence
• The 50 million
uninsured Americans
for example
Scientific Knowledge is Non-Normative
• Based on What We
Think
• The pepsi challenge
Subject to Empirical Verification
• Nixon-Kennedy Debate
• Top Party Schools or is
it?
• If you can’t
measure/prove it, it
isn’t scientific
knowledge
Put out the Long Form Sooner
Generalizable
• Applies to more than one case
• Covers a wide range of phenomenon
• They wouldn’t announce them if they didn’t
happen…
Scientific Laws in the social sciences
• Why so few?
• Unit of analysis
• What we study
In the Social sciences
GOOD AND BAD RESEARCH
Good Social Science Research
• Pertains to the
discipline
• Significant
• Simple
Bad Social Science research
• Not-germane to the
discipline
• Normative
• Based on discrete facts
• Who won the 2012
Election?
The First Steps in Measurement
CONCEPTS
What are Concepts?
• Concepts are the words
we use to describe
political, social and
environmental
behaviors
• They name and
describe the external
world
The Conceptual Definition
• This is the conceptual definition takes abstract
things and make them real.
• States the concept in unambiguous terms
• Must communicate
– The variation within a concept
– The subject to which the concept applies
Types of Concepts
• Socio-economic
• Attitudinal
• Behavioral
• Environmental
The Operational Definition
• Turning your concept
into something that can
be measured
• Must be precise and
accurate
• This can be very difficult
What Does Sustainability mean to
you?
The Operational Concept of Organic
The Concept of Poverty
Absolute Depravation
• The Federal Government
sets the poverty guidelines
• This is then used to
determine eligibility for
benefits
Relative Depravation
Definitions must match
When Concepts and Operations do not
match
The Old Catholic= Pro-Life