Transcript Seminar – 19th Jan 2008
Iran: The Stand-Off
Triumphant Institute of Management Education P Ltd
www.time4education.com
Iran - Background
• It was known as Persia until 1935.
• Iran became an Islamic republic in 1979 after the ruling monarchy was overthrown and Shah
was forced into exile. • Conservative clerical forces established a
of government with ultimate political authority vested in a learned religious scholar referred to commonly as the Supreme Leader.
• He is accountable only to the Assembly of Experts - a popularly elected 86-member body of clerics.
IAEA Report
• The November 2011 Report states: – Iran had carried out activities "relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device“.
– It said that some of these activities could only be used to develop nuclear weapons: • though it did not say that Iran had mastered the process, nor how long it would take Iran to make a bomb.
– The report documents alleged Iranian testing of explosives, experiments on detonating a nuclear weapon, and work on weaponisation - the processes by which a device might be adapted and hardened to fit into the nose-section of a missile.
– There are some allegations that are listed openly for the first time: • Iran has used computer modelling on the behaviour of a nuclear device.
UN Security Council
• UNSC has ordered Iran to stop enrichment: – Because the technology used to enrich uranium to the level needed for nuclear power can also be used to enrich it to the higher level needed for a nuclear explosion.
– Iran hid an enrichment programme for 18 years, so until its peaceful intentions can be fully established, it should stop enrichment and other nuclear activities – Under international law, an order from the Security Council supersedes rights granted by other Intl Org. – The Council has ordered sanctions under Article 41 of the UN Charter: • This enables it to decide "what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions". • The Council has also called on Iran to ratify and implement an arrangement allowing more extensive inspections as a way of establishing confidence.
Why Iran is refusing
• Under the NPT: – a signatory state has the right to enrich uranium to
be used as fuel for civil nuclear power
. – Such states have to remain under inspection by the IAEA. – Iran is under inspection, though not under the strictest rules allowed because it will not agree to them. – Note: Only those signatory states with nuclear weapons at the time of the treaty in 1968 are allowed to enrich to the higher level needed for a nuclear weapon.
• It is simply doing what it is allowed to do under the treaty and intends to enrich only for power station fuel or other peaceful purposes. – Iran: UN resolutions are politically motivated.
Why Iran is refusing
• Iran says it will not make a nuclear bomb. • Following the IAEA report, President Ahmadinejad declared: – "We do not need an atomic bomb. The Iranian nation is wise. It won't build two atomic bombs while you have 20,000 warheads.“ • Ali Khamenei, who is reported to have issued a fatwa some time ago against nuclear weapons, has said: – "We fundamentally reject nuclear weapons."
How soon can it make a Nuclear Weapon?
• Experts believe that technically it could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb within a few months. – A US general said in April 2010 that Iran could still take several years after that to make a device. – Leon Panetta said in 2010 that it could take 2 yrs – Israel's retd Intel chief has said it could take till ’15.
– Hillary Clinton said in January 2011 that sanctions had slowed down Iran's nuclear work. • She also said that Iran had faced technical difficulties. Possible a reference to Stuxnet, – But in July 2011, Iran said it was installing new, faster centrifuges to speed progress in uranium enrichment. • It could shorten the time needed to stockpile material that can have civilian as well as military purposes, if processed much further.
How soon can it make a Nuclear Weapon?
• On Feb. 24, United Nations nuclear inspectors reported that Iran was moving rapidly to produce nuclear fuel at a deep underground site that Israel and the United States have said is virtually invulnerable to attack.
– The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency indicated that for the first time, Iran had begun producing fuel inside the new facility in a mountain near the holy city of Qum. – The agency’s inspectors found in their visits over the past three months that Iran has tripled its production capacity for a type of fuel that is far closer to what is needed to make the core of a nuclear weapon.
How soon?
• The report about progress at the new facility is likely to inflame the debate over whether Iran is getting closer to what Israel’s defense minister, Ehud Barak, calls entering a “zone of immunity.” • The phrase refers to a vaguely defined point beyond which Iran could potentially produce weapons fuel without fear of an air attack that could wipe out its facilities.
• American officials insist that Iran’s progress has been halting at best.
– Despite Iran’s repeated boasts, it is still having trouble deploying significant amounts of next generation equipment to make fuel.
NPT
• In theory Iran could leave the NPT with three months notice and it would then be free to do what it wanted. • However, by doing that it would raise suspicions and leave itself open to attack. • If, while remaining in the treaty, it enriched to nuclear weapons level or was found diverting material for a bomb in secret, it would lay itself open to the same risk.
UN Sanctions
• The UN has imposed four sets of sanctions, in Security Council resolutions 1737, 1747, 1803 and 1929.
– These seek to make it more difficult for Iran to acquire equipment, technology and finance to support its nuclear activities. – They ban the sale to Iran of materiel and technology related to nuclear enrichment and heavy-water activities and ballistic missile development – They restrict dealings with certain Iranian banks and individuals – Stop the sale of major arms systems to Iran • Russia has cancelled the sale of an anti-aircraft missile system – Allow some inspections of air and sea cargoes.
UN Sanctions
• What they do not stop is: – Trade in oil and gas, the major source of Iran's income.
US & EU Sanctions
• The US brought in restrictions on trade with Iran after the taking of American hostages in 1979, which it tightened in 1995, and in 2010 additionally targeted Iranian finances, shipping and the Revolutionary Guard.
• In January 2012: – The US imposed sanctions on Iran's central bank and against three oil companies that trade with Iran, including China's state-run Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp. – The sanctions prevent the companies from receiving US export licences, US Export Import Bank financing or any loans over $10m from US institutions.
US & EU Sanctions
• Later that month European Union foreign ministers formally adopted an oil embargo against Iran. • This involves an immediate ban on all new oil contracts with Iran, while existing contracts will be honoured until 1 July 2012.
Iran’s Response
• In retaliation to the sanctions, Iran vowed to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit point. • Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the United States would “take action and reopen the strait,” which could be accomplished only by military means, including minesweepers, warship escorts and potentially airstrikes.
• On Feb. 19, Iran’s government ordered a halt of oil exports to Britain and France. – However, Britain and France depend little on Iranian oil, so their targeting may be a mostly symbolic act.
Iran
• By February 2012, the tightening of sanctions by the West appeared to be taking a toll. – Iran’s economy was showing further signs of strain, with the government looking for ways to avoid the use of dollars in international oil trade – New reports of problems importing food – A Gallup poll suggesting a majority of Iranians were worried about financial pain from the penalties already imposed. – In addition activities like: • attacks on Israelis attributed to Iran; • Ahmadinejad’s renewed posturing over his country’s latest nuclear advance • Threats of cutting off oil sales from six European countries – suggest that Iranian leaders were responding frantically to the sanctions.
Talks Or Buying Time?
• The previous round of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program broke down over a year ago in Turkey • But in January 2012, amid the tough economic sanctions adopted by the United States and Europe, Iran signaled readiness to resume talks with the United States, China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain. – According to the Associated Press, Mr. Ahmadinejad told students in the southern city of Kerman that he is ready for negotiations, but he said that the new sanctions would not force Iran to give in to demands by the Western powers to end its nuclear enrichment program.
Talks …
• On Feb. 17, the United States and the European Union signaled that negotiations with Iran could soon begin. • Iran dropped previously unacceptable preconditions for talks in a letter from its senior nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, who declared his country’s “readiness for dialogue” at “the earliest possibility.” – The offer appeared to be a genuine concession by Iran, though one made under the duress of tightening economic sanctions against the country. • On Feb. 17, another salvo was fired. The Belgium-based Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, known as Swift, said that it was “ready to implement sanctions against Iranian financial institutions.”