Transcript Slide 1
Peak Phosphorus
Peak Phosphorus
Naomi Radke, seecon international GmbH
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Peak Phosphorus
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Contents
1. Introduction 2. Methodology and Analysis 3. Impact 4. Sceptics of the Hubbert Curve 5. Future Management of Phosphorus Peak Phosphorus 3
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1. Introduction
Why Phosphorus?
All modern agricultural systems are dependent on continuous input of
phosphorus fertiliser (P)
as a nutrient for the plant.
Source: http://www.finegardening.com/how to/articles/fertilizing-basics.aspx
[Accessed: 06.03.2013]
Thus, without phosphorus fertiliser we cannot produce food!
But, where does phosphorus come from ...? Peak Phosphorus
Source: FALL (2009)
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1. Introduction
Where does Phosphorus come from?
Source: CORDELL et al. (2009)
Peak Phosphorus Today, phosphorus fertiliser is primarily artificial, derived from
phosphate rock .
Source: http://permaculturenews.org/2009/01/14/phosphorus matters/ [Accessed: 07.03.2013]
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1. Introduction
Phosphate Rock Resources Worldwide
http://aquat1.ifas.ufl.edu/guide/hu mimpac.html
[Accessed: 29.09.2010]
Peak Phosphorus
Source: ROSEMARIN et al. (2009)
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1. Introduction
Phosphate Rock Resources Worldwide
• • Of all artificial fertilisers phosphorus is the most limited Predictions for supply worldwide vary from 130 years max. to only 60 years
Source: ECOSANRES (2008)
7 Peak Phosphorus
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1. Introduction
The Phosphorus Peak
Phosphate rock is a
non-renewable resource
. Thus its derivation will have a
PEAK
Currently, there are no considerable alternatives that could replace phosphate rock on the market! • • • which occurs when 50% of the resource is used up from then on: • production will • market prices will exact time of global peak is disputed Peak Phosphorus 8
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2. Methodology and Analysis
The Phosphorus Peak
Peak phosphorus is calculated based on estimated P in current world phosphate rock reserves. Area under Hubbert curve =
depleted P
Peak Phosphorus The modelled Hubbert curve of phosphorus production and actual production (black dots)
Source: CORDELL ET AL. (2009)
Estimated peak of global production: in 2034 9
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3. Impact
Fertiliser Prices affect Food Affordability
Fertiliser prices are rising continuously.
Fertiliser prices are bound to world market prices – how long can farmers from the “third world” afford them?
Source: http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04262007/Ethanol-Fertilizer-Natural-Gas.html
. [Accessed 31.05.2010]
Peak Phosphorus 10
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3. Impact
World Rock Phosphate Production vs. World Population
• • World Population ( ) = World demand for phosphate fertilizers ( ) Future conflicts on the access to phosphate are likely, due to the limited reserves and the concentration of significant minable resources in a small number of countries.
Source: WERNER et al. (n.y.)
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3. Impact
Global Food Production vs. World Population
World food production increases relatively more than world population When peak phosphorus occurs, it will lead to a
food crisis
Source:
http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/events/archive/2011/paa/david_lam.html
Peak Phosphorus 12
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3. Impact
What is the Link to Peak Oil?
Peak Phosphorus
• No replacement of phosphorus as fertiliser for food production • Recyclable (within economic and technical limits) Link!
Peak Oil
• Replacement with other forms of energy possible (e.g. biofuels, renewable energies) • Not recyclable Oil price increased (due to proximity of peak oil) biofuel crop production increased demand for demand in phosphorus fertilisers increased phosphorus peak comes closer Peak Phosphorus 13
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4. Sceptics of the Hubbert Curve
Does a Peak truly exist for Scarce Resources?
Sceptics of the peak claim that: • one scarce resource can infinitely be replaced by another resource (according to neoclassical economic theory) BUT: there is no replacement for phosphorus in order for plants to grow • peaks exist but occur in the distant future
STILL
the Hubbert Curve with its peak gains traction as oil price drastically increased in the last years. Peak Phosphorus 14
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
The Current Situation
The current system is inefficient!
one-way street!
Mining and Processing Phosphate Rock Fertilizer application Harvest Consumption Excretion Discharge into rivers/lakes NPK Peak Phosphorus 15
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
Opportunities for Improving Efficiency
Mining and Processing Phosphate Rock Fertilizer application Harvest Consumption Excretion Discharge into rivers/lakes efficiency in mining and processing phosphate rock Peak Phosphorus NPK closing the phosphorus cycle 16
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
Examples of Closing the Phosphorus Cycle
•
Capturing human and animal excreta
e.g. Urine diversion and faeces dehydration for application as fertilizer
Capturing food and crop residues
• e.g. Composting
Source: TILLEY et al. (2008)
Peak Phosphorus
Source: GREEN PARENTHOOD (2010)
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
Case studies of Capturing Human and Animal Excreta
•
Case study large-scale (
Adapted from :
RICHERT (2009); HORT (n.y.))
Ecological Tenant-Owner’s Society, Stockholm, Sweden • Housing complex with 32 flats • Technology: urine-diverting dehydrating porcelain toilet with flush (0,1 l/flush) for urine and dry faeces collection • Urine stored in a large tank under the house • Urine transported to a farm 3-4 times a year where it is stored in large reservoirs and applied to the fields in spring Peak Phosphorus 18
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
Case studies of Capturing Human and Animal Excreta
•
Case study small-scale
(Adapted from TILLEY et al. (2008))
Allotment gardens in Cagayan de Oro, Philippines • Toilets on 9 self-sustaining allotment gardens for 100 poor urban families • technology: double-vault urine-diverting dehydrating toilet, waterless urinal from recycled plastic container for men • Urine stored in container under the toilet house (can be used after 1 month storage), faeces (sawdust and lime added for drying) dries for one year in a vault under the toilet house • diluted urine and dried faeces used for fertilizing the garden Peak Phosphorus 19
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
Case study of Capturing food and crop residues
•
Case study small-scale
(Adapted from KINOBE et al. (2010))
Composting at households in Kitgum Town, Uganda • 9 households composting their solid organic household waste (primarily food waste) • self-built compost heaps with windrow method (see middle photo) • 4-5 months until organic waste turns into compost. Compost can be used as fertilizer • Steps: preparation of waste degradation of waste curing and screening of compost Peak Phosphorus
Source: KINOBE et al. (2010) Source: KINOBE et al. (2010)
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4. Future Management of Phosphorus
The Challenge: Time Frame
... in order for the system to become more efficient, the infrastructure has to be given !
Currently, the time frame used in the markets (e.g. fertiliser market) and governmental institutions is market actions.
short-term
(5-10 years). Therefore, phosphorus scarcity is not yet addressed adequately in policies and
Think long-term!
A
long-term
(50-100 years) time frame is required in order to understand, manage adapt the current system in a timely way and thus to feed humanity without compromising the environment, livelihoods and economies.
Peak Phosphorus 21
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4. Future Management of Phosphorus
The Challenge: Integrated Solutions
... in order for the system to become more efficient, the infrastructure has to be given !
International institutional arrangements are INCONSISTENT with natural phosphorus cycle:
Division Water & Sanitation sector
phosphorus = pollutant in wastewater
Agricultural sector
phosphorus= fertiliser commodity
Opportunity for integrated solutions!
Source: RICHERT (2009)
Peak Phosphorus 22
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5. References
CORDELL, D., DRANGERT, J.-O., WHITE, S. (2009): The story of phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought. In: Global Environmental Change 19, 292-305. Available at: http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/CORDELL%20et%20al%202009%20%20The%20story%20of%20phosphorus.pdf
[Accessed: 05.03.2013] ECOSANRES. (2008): Closing the loop on phosphorus. (=EcoSanRes Factsheet, No. 4). Harare (Zimbabwe): Stockholm Environment Institute EcoSanRes Programme. Available at: http://www.ecosanres.org/factsheets.htm
[Accessed: 27.09.2010] FALL, A. (2009): Urban Urine Diversion Dehydration Toilets and Resuse O u agadougou Brukina Faso - Draft. Eschborn: Sustainable Sanitation Alliance (SuSanA). Available at: http://www.susana.org/images/documents/06-case-studies/en-susana-cs-armenia-hayanist-school.pdf
[Accessed: 07.03.2013] GREEN PARENTHOOD (Editor) (2010): 11 Green New Years Resolutions For 2011. Available at: http://www.greenparenthood.com/blog/2010/12/29/11 green-new-years-resolutions-for-2011/ [Accessed: 30.03.2011] HORT, N. ; EKBO (Editor) (n.y.): Alternatives to Conventional Wastewater Systems. Stockholm: Ecological Tenant-Owners’ Society in Orhem. Available at: http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/URINE%20LARGE%20SCALE%20Stockholm%20Sweden.pdf
[Accessed: 11.03.2013] KINOBE, J.; OLWENY, S.; NIWAGABA, C. (2010): Composting at Households in Kitgum Town, Uganda - Draft. Eschborn: Susana. Available at: http://www.susana.org/images/documents/06-case-studies/en-susana-cs-uganda-kitgum-town-composting-at-households-2010.pdf
[Accessed: 11.03.2013] PHADKE, S. (2009): Poo. Pune: Aman Setu Publication. Available at: http://www.susana.org/lang-en/library?view=ccbktypeitem&type=2&id=706 [Accessed: 05.03.2013] RICHERT, A.; EcoSanRes (Editor); Richert Miljoekompetens (Editor) (2009): Large Scale Handling of Urine and Faeces. (pdf presentation). Stockholm: Stockholm Environmental Institute. Available at: http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/RICHERT%202009%20Large%20scale%20application.pdf
[Accessed: 11.03.2013] ROSEMARIN, A. BRUIJNE, DE G., CALDWELL, I. (2009): Peak Phosphorus. The next inconvenient truth. In: The Broker Magazine, Issue 15. Leiden: IDP.Available at: http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/Articles/Peak-phosphorus [Accessed: 11.03.2013] TILLEY, E.; LUETHI, C.; MOREL, A.; ZURBRUEGG, C.; SCHERTENLEIB, R. (2008): Compendium of Sanitation Systems and Technologies. Duebendorf and Geneva: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG). Available at: http://www.eawag.ch/forschung/sandec/publikationen/index [Accessed: 15.02.2010] WERNER, C. ,MANG, H. P., KLINGEL, F., BRACKEN, P. (n.y.): General Overview about ecosan. PowerPoint Presentation. Eschborn: Ecological Sanitation Programme of the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) GmbH Peak Phosphorus
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