Transcript Introduction

1.1
Introduction
Chapter 1
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.2
The Nature of Derivatives
A derivative is an instrument whose
value depends on the values of other
more basic underlying variables
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.3
Examples of Derivatives
•
•
•
•
Forward Contracts
Futures Contracts
Swaps
Options
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.4
Derivatives Markets
• Exchange traded
– Traditionally exchanges have used the openoutcry system, but increasingly they are switching
to electronic trading
– Contracts are standard there is virtually no credit
risk
• Over-the-counter (OTC)
– A computer- and telephone-linked network of
dealers at financial institutions, corporations, and
fund managers
– Contracts can be non-standard and there is some
small amount of credit risk
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.5
Ways Derivatives are Used
• To hedge risks
• To speculate (take a view on the future
direction of the market)
• To lock in an arbitrage profit
• To change the nature of a liability
• To change the nature of an investment
without incurring the costs of selling
one portfolio and buying another
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.6
Forward Contracts
• A forward contract is an agreement to buy
or sell an asset at a certain time in the future
for a certain price (the delivery price)
• It can be contrasted with a spot contract
which is an agreement to buy or sell
immediately
• It is traded in the OTC market
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.7
Foreign Exchange Quotes for
GBP on Aug 16, 2001 (See page 3)
Spot
Bid
1.4452
Offer
1.4456
1-month forward
1.4435
1.4440
3-month forward
1.4402
1.4407
6-month forward
1.4353
1.4359
12-month forward
1.4262
1.4268
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.8
Forward Price
• The forward price for a contract is the
delivery price that would be applicable
to the contract if were negotiated
today (i.e., it is the delivery price that
would make the contract worth exactly
zero)
• The forward price may be different for
contracts of different maturities
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.9
Terminology
• The party that has agreed to buy
has what is termed a long position
• The party that has agreed to sell
has what is termed a short
position
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.10
Example (page 3)
• On August 16, 2001 the treasurer of a
corporation enters into a long forward
contract to buy £1 million in six months
at an exchange rate of 1.4359
• This obligates the corporation to pay
$1,435,900 for £1 million on February
16, 2002
• What are the possible outcomes?
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.11
Profit from a
Long Forward Position
Profit
K
Price of Underlying
at Maturity, ST
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.12
Profit from a
Short Forward Position
Profit
K
Price of Underlying
at Maturity, ST
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.13
Futures Contracts
• Agreement to buy or sell an asset for a
certain price at a certain time
• Similar to forward contract
• Whereas a forward contract is traded
OTC, a futures contract is traded on an
exchange
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.14
Examples of Futures Contracts
• Agreement to:
– buy 100 oz. of gold @ US$300/oz.
in December (COMEX)
– sell £62,500 @ 1.5000 US$/£ in
March (CME)
– sell 1,000 bbl. of oil @ US$20/bbl.
in April (NYMEX)
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.15
1. Gold: An Arbitrage
Opportunity?
• Suppose that:
- The spot price of gold is US$300
- The 1-year forward price of gold is
US$340
- The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5%
per annum
• Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
(We ignore storage costs and gold lease rate)?
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.16
2. Gold: Another Arbitrage
Opportunity?
• Suppose that:
- The spot price of gold is US$300
- The 1-year forward price of gold
is US$300
- The 1-year US$ interest rate is
5% per annum
• Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.17
The Forward Price of Gold
If the spot price of gold is S and the forward
price for a contract deliverable in T years is F,
then
F = S (1+r )T
where r is the 1-year (domestic currency) riskfree rate of interest.
In our examples, S = 300, T = 1, and r =0.05 so
that
F = 300(1+0.05) = 315
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.18
1. Oil: An Arbitrage
Opportunity?
Suppose that:
- The spot price of oil is US$19
- The quoted 1-year futures price of
oil is US$25
- The 1-year US$ interest rate is
5% per annum
- The storage costs of oil are 2%
per annum
• Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.19
2. Oil: Another Arbitrage
Opportunity?
• Suppose that:
- The spot price of oil is US$19
- The quoted 1-year futures price of
oil is US$16
- The 1-year US$ interest rate is
5% per annum
- The storage costs of oil are 2%
per annum
• Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.20
Exchanges Trading Options
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Chicago Board Options Exchange
American Stock Exchange
Philadelphia Stock Exchange
Pacific Stock Exchange
European Options Exchange
Australian Options Market
and many more (see list at end of book)
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.21
Options
• A call option is • A put is an
an option to buy
option to sell a
a certain asset
certain asset by
by a certain
a certain date
date for a
for a certain
certain price
price (the strike
(the strike
price)
price)
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.22
Long Call on Microsoft (Figure 1.2, Page 7)
Profit from buying a European call option on Microsoft:
option price = $5, strike price = $60
30 Profit ($)
20
10
30
0
-5
40
50
Terminal
stock price ($)
60
70
80
90
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.23
Short Call on Microsoft (Figure 1.4, page 9)
Profit from writing a European call option on Microsoft:
option price = $5, strike price = $60
Profit ($)
5
0
-10
70
30
40
50 60
80
90
Terminal
stock price ($)
-20
-30
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.24
Long Put on IBM (Figure 1.3, page 8)
Profit from buying a European put option on IBM:
option price = $7, strike price = $90
30 Profit ($)
20
10
0
-7
Terminal
stock price ($)
60
70
80
90
100 110 120
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.25
Short Put on IBM (Figure 1.5, page 9)
Profit from writing a European put option on IBM:
option price = $7, strike price = $90
Profit ($)
7
0
60
70
Terminal
stock price ($)
80
90
100 110 120
-10
-20
-30
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.26
Payoffs from Options
What is the Option Position in Each Case?
K = Strike price, ST = Price of asset at maturity
Payoff
Payoff
K
K
ST
Payoff
ST
Payoff
K
K
ST
ST
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.27
Types of Traders
• Hedgers
• Speculators
• Arbitrageurs
Some of the large trading losses in
derivatives occurred because individuals
who had a mandate to hedge risks switched
to being speculators
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.28
Hedging Examples (page 11)
• A US company will pay £10 million for
imports from Britain in 3 months and
decides to hedge using a long position
in a forward contract
• An investor owns 1,000 Microsoft
shares currently worth $73 per share. A
two-month put with a strike price of $65
costs $2.50. The investor decides to
hedge by buying 10 contracts
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.29
Speculation Example
• An investor with $4,000 to invest feels
that Cisco’s stock price will increase
over the next 2 months. The current
stock price is $20 and the price of a 2month call option with a strike of 25 is
$1
• What are the alternative strategies?
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull
1.30
Arbitrage Example (pages 12-13)
• A stock price is quoted as £100 in
London and $172 in New York
• The current exchange rate is 1.7500
• What is the arbitrage opportunity?
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th edition © 2002 by John C. Hull