Towards identifying policies to address educational quality

Servaas van der Berg Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University PSPPD Project – 28 March 2011 Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

Issues

• • • • •

SA school performance in perspective:

Schools and the labour market Weak performance, even in African context Poverty cannot explain this – SA’s poor fare worse than Africa’s poor The school system has two parts, one functioning fairly well, the other extremely weakly Resources bring little improvement in weak schools, due to functionality issues •

Features of poorly functioning schools:

Slow macro pacing, poor use of instructional time, low curriculum coverage • • • Low cognitive demand, weak assessment, little feedback Lack of textbooks/workbooks/reading material (some teachers think textbooks and workbooks are ‘not applicable’ in FP; libraries seldom function) Problems with second language teaching and learning

Policy directions

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• • •

SA’s dualistic school system and labour market High productivity jobs & incomes

•

High quality schools

±10% of schools, mainly ex-white, but racial composition changed ±10% of labour force – mainly professional, managerial & skilled jobs • Produce strong cognitive skills Requires graduates, good quality matric, or good vocational skills Historically mainly whites • Teachers well qualified, schools function well, good assessment, parents involved •

Vocational training

•

Affirmative action

• • •

Low productivity jobs & incomes

Often manual or low skill jobs Limited or low quality education Minimum wage can exceed their productivity •

Some talented, motivated or lucky students manage the transition

• • • •

Big demand for good schools, despite fees

•

A few schools cross the divide Low quality schools

Produce very weak cognitive skills Teachers less qualified, de-motiva ted, many schools dysfunctional, weak assessment, little parental involvement, strong union presence Mainly former black (DET) schools

Education affects labour market outcomes

4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Employment probability, 2005 (conditional) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Education (years)

Log of wage, 2005 (conditional) • • • Good education provides access to

top end of labour market

– (better) • jobs, higher wages

Skills shortage

at top end causes a • wage premium Oversupply of unskilled workers depresses wages at bottom end

Race between demand and supply of skills

will determine skills premium This premium and the distribution of educational attainment are currently

central to SA income inequality

5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Education (years)

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Education also determines individual prospects – with a potential vicious circle of weak education and poverty

1.SES at birth 2. Cognitive ability in early childhood 6. Labour market performance 3. Educational performance in early school years 5. Ultimate educational attainment and quality 4. Educational achievement at matric Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

Black matriculants, 1982-2007

(’000) 1982 1992 2007 Growth rate p.a. 1982-1992 Growth rate p.a. 1992-2007 Endorsements (University exemptions) 7 34 51 17.1% 2.7% Other matric passes 27 117 241 15.8% 4.9% Total 34 151 292 16.1% 4.5%

Potentially holds back economic growth and black social mobility Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

200 100 0 600 565 500

Literacy score in PIRLS 2006

400 300 500 405 302

Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

80 60 40

% below low international benchmark (400) in PIRLS 2006 (Gr.4; in SA Gr.5)

These are “very low reading achievers”, “at serious risk of not learning how to read” (Trong 2009) –

yet quite a number of them eventually pass matric

67 72 74 78 34 36 40 46 20 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 15 16 18 0

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Mean Maths score in TIMMS 2003

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 a g n Si re o p o K a re g n o H g n o K T a a n iw J a a n p iu lg e B m e th e N d n a rl s A u a s li tr a U SA Sw n e d e En d n la g Sc n a tl o d ra Is l e Z w e N n la a e d Sl o v ia e n Ita ly o N rw y a ru p y C s ra h a B in Es n to ia g n u H ry a y la a M ia s o Sl ia k a v tv a L ia s s u R ia ith L ia n a u rm A ia n e Se ia rb M & .

a lg u B a ri m o R ia n a o ld o M a v d e c a M ia n o a b e L n o n rd o J n a n a Ir n o d In ia s e is n u T ia Eg t p y Pa n ti s le e e il h C o M c ro o c Ph p ip il s e in w ts o B a n a A i d u ia b ra Sa n a h G a A H T U A IC R F SO

Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

% of SA students exceeding performance at 75th percentile of developed countries (“who would ‘make it’ economically in developed countries")

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600 550 500 450 400 350 300

Mean Reading scores (SACMEQ III)

12 Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

450 400 350 600 550 500

Mean Reading score for poorest 25%

(SACMEQ III) 13 Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

Lowess regression on schools’ average maths score, SA & other SACMEQ countries

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Schools’ average maths score, SA vs. other SACMEQII countries

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Kernel density curves of matric average by race, 2005

Indian Coloured White 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Aggregate Matric Average

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PIRLS reading scores by school type

0 200 400 reading test score African language schools 600 800 English/Afrikaans schools 17 Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

Gr.6 reading test scores by SES quintile

18 Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

0 20 40 Total numeracy score NSES 2009 African lnaguage students in ex-DET schools African language students in ex-white schools Afrikaans/English language students in ex-white schools kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 1.5053

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Literacy achievement by former department and grade, NSES

0 20 40 60 Literacy score DET (B) 2007 DET (B) 2009 HOA (W) 2008 80 DET (B) 2008 HOA (W) 2007 HOA (W) 2009 Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union 100

Numeracy score by SES, former dept and home language

NSES2009 Gap explains middle class flight to ex-white schools -2 -1 0 Socio-economic status African language in ex-white schools Afrikaans/English lin ex-white schools 1 Ex-DET schools Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union 2

School & individual SES & Maths score, SACMEQIII

-2 -1 0 1 Mean School SES (Average SES of students in the class) Quintile 1 Quintile 3 Quintile 5 Quintile 2 Quintile 4 22

Figure 9

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Results from NSES

Macro-pacing:

• • Maths topics covered: 75% of HOA but just 26% of DET learners were in schools where more than 25 different maths topics were covered Literacy/language exercises: 33 in DET schools, 75 in HoA schools • Some teachers may cover new topics slowly to accommodate prior learning deficits • However, insufficient curriculum coverage a major indicator of inefficiency

Resources:

outcomes Only weak evidence that pupil-teacher ratios, class sizes, teacher knowledge and access to textbooks and information technology improve

Teacher and management “efficiency”

variables have a significant positive effect on learner performance, e.g. • Existence of curriculum planning for a full year • A functional timetable • • • Good-quality inventories for learning and teaching support materials (LTSM) Low teacher absenteeism, up-to-date assessment records Various measures of curriculum coverage Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union 23

Some findings from WCED Grade 3 project Low cognitive demand:

• • Teachers, principals, curriculum advisors & parents are oblivious of the level of under-achievement •

To correct their behaviour, teachers must first realise there is something to correct

• Setting incentives/structures to ensure appropriate assessment practices is thus crucial Few principals take instructional leadership in FP seriously • •

Curriculum advisors:

Do not observe classrooms & teaching Focus on teaching methods (form) rather than content and coverage (substance) Teachers confused about curriculum documents to use Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union 24

Classroom observations: Literacy & numeracy

• • • • •

Literacy

Limited opportunities to handle books Limited teaching of reading and writing Read and write mainly isolated words Little emphasis on comprehension of text Little elaboration on learner responses • • • • • • Reading largely collectivised • Little vocabulary & spelling development or teaching of phonics

Numeracy

Teachers lack theory of how children develop number concepts Use mainly concrete methods for solving problems Everyday knowledge obscures learning of mathematics Extremely slow pace Low conceptual level of instruction Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union 25

95%

WCED study: % of Gr. 3 learners who could verbally answer questions below

(in home language)

98%

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

27% 72% 34% 36% 71% 50% 69% 17%

2 x 2 5 x 5 Learner 1 2 x 3 10 x 10 Learner 2 2 x 2 3 x 6 Learner 3 2 x 3 4 x 5 Learner 4 2 x 4 6 x 6 Learner 5 But ¾ of Gr.3 teachers said they covered times tables 3+ days per week Yet barely half of teachers were confident that most of their learners could correctly answer “2 times 4”

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Teacher views on % of class at appropriate level in Numeracy for grade at beginning and end of year 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

79% 85% 84% 47%

Grade 1 teacher Grade 2 teacher Grade 3 teacher % achieving WCED standard in tests Grade 1

56%

Grade 2

55%

Grade 3

Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union 22%

End of Grade 3

School level CASS and exam marks for Maths HG 2005, and trend line

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PIRLS

•

Classroom practices & homework frequency

Different classroom practices may bring different benefits in low-SES schools: • • • In African-language schools, regular classroom exercises as well as diagnostic testing had positive and significant impacts on reading A limited homework impact is found for African-language schools (though individuals who spend more time on reading homework of their own accord perform better) Extended learning time is not common in African-language schools (fewer than 40% provide this facility). However, if it is provided and if more than 75% of learners take part in it, then there is a significant, positive impact on test performance 29 Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

PIRLS: Parental involvement

At household level, positive effects on reading scores come from: • • • • Help with homework Parents’ education Regular joint reading activities at home Parent-child communication in language of test School SES may affect the nature, quality and impact of parent involvement: • • If parents doubt their own ability to make useful contributions they are less likely to become involved, or their involvement may not be of sufficient depth This may explain the minor impact of parental involvement in poorer schools 30 Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

31 • • • •

SACMEQ results & policy conclusions

At least one year of quality pre-school education will assist poorer learners especially Poor learners have less access to textbooks – evidence shows more textbooks can improve reading performance Practical policies should be explored that encourage teachers to prescribe homework and enable learners to complete it Teachers’ subject expertise has only a small positive impact • At Grade 6 level policy should perhaps rather focus on helping teachers to convey subject material Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

How weak is teacher subject knowledge?

In SACMEQ III, Maths teachers participated in a Maths tests & English teachers in a reading test Example of one answer on a Maths test: 33 • •

Most Grade 6 Maths teachers (57%) thought the answer was

15 percent (presumably they just calculated 75 minus 60 =15 !!!) Only 24% of Maths teachers got this right, i.e. answered 25% Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

Policy directions

• • • •

Importance of accountability structures in public sector:

In schools, accountability needs to focus on time, coverage, assessment • Principals need to take instructional leadership seriously

Importance of information:

Teachers must know • • Appropriate level of cognitive demand Required level and pace of coverage are Parents/children need to know how they perform Testing and information flows are thus crucial • Feedback is crucial – to convert data into information, to allow accountability 34 Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

Policy directions

(cont.)

• • • • • •

Specific interventions:

Quality pre-schools Books (textbooks, workbooks, readers, library books) from early grades • But library model of provision within schools has collapsed – alternative models need attention Homework Assessment practices – cross-marking, etc.

Teacher subject knowledge – long term issue (recruitment, entry requirements) Appointment and contracts of principals 35 Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union

Taking library books home from school Yes

No No library books available

SACMEQII 2000

49%

32% 18%

SACMEQIII 2007

32%

9% 59% 36 Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development A partnership between the Presidency, Republic of South Africa and the European Union