Transcript Slide 1

Strategic Plan2005
Science-Society Interactions
Strategic Plan2001
Challenges identified for NCAR
Intellectual
Human resource development and education
Application of science to societal needs
“Societal needs of the next half-century”
Global population
Technological development and effects on
environment
Global climate change and other environmental
changes, including ‘surprises’
5 June 2005
Strategic Plan2005
Science-Society Interactions
Strategic Plan2001
Objectives:
 Develop science for national/international assessments of climate variability
and change, ozone depletion, etc.
 Improve understanding of the science-practice interface
 Develop collaborative ties to other societal impacts centers and relevant
stakeholder groups
Activities:
Activities:
Annualclimate
meetingchange
on climate
change science/decision-making
 Annual
science/decision-maker
meeting
Policy-relevantresearch
research
 Policy-relevant
Createand
anddistribute
distributescientific
scientificinformation
informationininresponse
responsetotosocietal
societalneeds
needs
 Create
Fosterdialogues
dialogueson
onatmospheric
atmosphericissues
issueswith
withinterested
interestedpublics
publics
 Foster
Publicoutreach:
outreach:summary
summaryand
andexplanation
explanationofofresearch
researchactivities
activities&&results,
results,
 Public
andtheir
theirlinkage-relevance
linkage-relevancetotosocietal
societalconcerns
concerns&&national
nationalneeds
needs
and
5 June 2005
Strategic Plan2005
Science-Society Interactions
NCAR’s Mission
to support, enhance, and extend the capabilities
of the university community, nationally and
Strategic
Plan
internationally; to understand2001
the behavior of
the atmospheric and related systems and the
global environment; and to foster the transfer of
knowledge and technology for the betterment of
life on Earth.
5 June 2005
Challenges Related to the Atmosphere
Climate Change Imposes Increased Risks to
Environment (Biosphere) and Society
Biosphere – what we’re really interested in – environmental
changes by themselves are not the problem, it’s what those
environmental changes mean for life
NCAR does a tremendous job in its
intellectual and technological contributions
to understanding climate and weather
There needs to be a stronger link to where
the science is needed most:
Society and Ecosystems
5 June 2005
Climate Change
5 June 2005
TWO Major Challenges
Linking climate change and
the biosphere
Linking society and science
"I say the debate is over. We know
the science, we see the threat and
we know the time for action is
now."
-- A. Schwarzenegger, June 1, 2005
Environmental Action Plan for CA
2010, 2000 levels
2020, 1990 levels
2050, 80% of 1990 levels
"If we are saying that the loss of
species in and of itself is inherently
bad – I don't think we know enough
about how the world works to say
that."
– Craig Manson, Int. Dept., appointed by
Pres. Bush to oversee Endangered
Species Act, Nov. 12, 2003
“I’ve always said it’s a serious long-term issue that needs to be dealt with,
and … my administration isn’t waiting around... we lead the world when it
comes to dollars spent - millions of dollars spent - on research about climate
change. We want to know more about it. It’s easier to solve a problem when
you know a lot about it.”
– G. W. Bush, June 7, 2005, Meeting with Tony Blair
5 June 2005
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #1
Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems
(both managed and wild ecosystems)
Why this challenge?
 Human activities affect virtually every ecosystem
 Interactions between climate, ecosystems, and resource use are
critical to understanding:
–
–
–
climate change
environmental impacts
societal response options
 Societal welfare ultimately depends on ecosystem welfare
The larger calling:
 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment – identified gaps that fit
within NCAR’s mission.
5 June 2005
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #1
Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment – scientific gaps
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
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Nature of interactions among drivers in particular regions and across
scales
Responses of ecosystems to changes in nutrients and CO2
Nonlinear changes in ecosystems; thresholds; dynamic characteristics of
systems that lead to irreversible changes
Relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services
Approaches to nest or link scenarios developed at different geographic
scales
Models of the relationship between ecosystems and human well-being
Models to link ecological and social processes
Communicating to non-specialists the complexity of holistic models and
scenarios involving ecosystem services.
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #1
Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems
Combine climate change
predictions with ecosystem
response predictions
1996-2005
Simple - organism level
Complex
- ecosystem
&
50 published
studiesresponse
using GCM
feedbacks
(carbon cycle
work)
climate
predictions
in ecosystem
studies
Develop model output useful to
ecosystem studies
Encourage use of that output
Extremes rather than averages
34 Hadley
HadCM3)
Variables
useful(HadCM2,
to ecosystem
studies
16 CGCM
Include
ecosystems in models
13 NCAR (CSM, CCSM, LSM,
PCM, RegCM)
Data 7accessibility
ECHAM
Dedicated
visitor program
4 CSIRO
Colloquia
Ensure that climate change is
considered in ecosystem
management
5 June 2005
University researchers, ecosystem
managers, etc
Some work already being tackled:
Fisheries, agriculture, water resources
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #2
Improving Science-Society Interactions
Why this challenge?
 Climate stresses on society will increase
What makes societal systems vulnerable?
What
increases
society’sscientific
adaptive capacity?
 The
demand
for relevant
information in support of decision-making
are thresholds
to societal
adaptability?
willWhere
increase
in all weatherand climate-sensitive
sectors
What,
when, in what
form dorequires
decision-makers
need role
scientific
information? How
 The
sustainability
transition
a significant
of (atmospheric)
can
mutual
benefits be increased?
science
andinteractions,
technologytrust,
andand
understanding
of human dynamics
The larger calling:
IPCC assessments – TAR and AR4 point to need for better decision-support,
understanding of human system dynamics
CCSP Strategic Plan – growing interest in decision support
Nat. Acad. Sci. – various efforts linking physical and social sciences in context
of global environmental change
GEO – Global Environment Outlook of UNEP
5 June 2005
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #2
Improving Science-Society Interactions
Enhanced research on sciencedecision making interactions,
VAR, societal interactions
Identification of critical thresholds in
societal and environmental systems
Growing partnerships with
decision-makers in government
and private sector
Facilitate use of science in critical
decisions
Increase preparedness for weather &
climate impacts and change
Role in national & international
assessments
Modeling the human-system
component of CCSM and regional
models
Develop regional-global models that
capture societal inputs in Earth
System Modeling efforts
5 June 2005
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES
Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions
NCAR uniqueness, role as
integrator and facilitator
Credible information source with tremendous
modeling and expert capacity
Organizational structure that allows crossdisciplinary collaboration
NCAR can seize the opportunity to apply its
expertise (atmospheric science) in
biospheric and societal studies
5 June 2005
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES
Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions
Scientific activities to make
progress in topic area
Enhanced research on science–decisionmaking interaction, vulnerability-adaptationresilience, and on societal interactions
Growing partnerships with decision-makers in
government and private sector
Enhanced research on ecological impacts;
stronger engagement of universities, etc
Combine climate change predictions with
ecosystem response predictions
Develop model output useful to ecosystem
studies
Encourage use of that output through
workshops, etc.
5 June 2005
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES
Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions
Leverage strengths/expertise
of labs, divisions and
institutes
SERE-ISSE
SERE-CCB
SERE-Box4
• Vulnerability/adaptation
• Use/value of information
• Decision-making under
uncertainty
• Communication and
social change
• Regional modeling
ESSL-CGD-CCSM, TIMES/BGS, ACD
Climate Modeling
Modeling human system component of CCSM
Air-pollution modeling
RAL - Decision-making tools
ECSA Junior Faculty Forum
“Downscaling Climate Change: Extreme Events,
Regional Impacts, and Ecosystems”
Opportunity Fund – ecology-climate proposals
5 June 2005
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES
Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions
Tools needed to develop,
improve or extend goals
GIS, agent-based modeling, policy analysis and
other decision-support tools;
Achieving some goals are not tool-dependent
Modeling, ecological forecasting, dataset
development (e.g., GIS)
Statistical downscaling and statistics of extreme
events
5 June 2005
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES
Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions
Support NCAR community
service mission
The mission of NCAR:
Realize “science in the service of society” by
better understanding the interaction between
science and society
Research and information transfer for “the
betterment of life on Earth”
Desirable/essential
partnerships within/outside
NCAR (esp. universities)
Natural integration across many NCAR groups
University Community (beyond atmospheric
Sciences – Environmental and Social Sciences)
Government agencies (national to local)
RISA and other research & assessment centers
International research centers
NGO’s
Private sector (e.g., energy companies, water
resources, insurance)
5 June 2005
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES
Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions
Education, Outreach,
Knowledge transfer
5 June 2005
Natural avenue for connecting with public
Make better use of NCAR’s expertise
Expand public awareness of societal
dependence on ecosystems, and ecosystem
dependence on climate
MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES
Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions
NCAR Capacity to Undertake Suggested Program
EXISTING SUPPORT:
NEEDS:
1. Assessment Initiative
Human Resources
2. Regional Modeling
1. Ecosystem Scientists
3. ASP Postdoctoral Program
2. Social Scientists
4. CCB
3. Strong visitor program
5. RAL – Technical support
6. ESSL – Climate change research
Strong Outreach
1. Workshops
2. Data development
5 June 2005
SUMMARY
Ecological Impacts
Science-Society Interactions
Improving Interactions between Science and Society
Requirements:
1. Understand societal needs (environment, health, well-being)
2. Understand societal response to climate change and other
environmental issues
3. Advance research that leads to “betterment of life on Earth”
This will help NCAR in its application of NCAR science to societal needs ; and
will better illustrate the relevance of NCAR’s work
Two main challenges are natural avenues for pursuing these goals:
1. Encouraging stronger research on Science-Society Interaction
2. Stronger application of NCAR science to environmental studies
5 June 2005