Transcript Document

Natural Gas Technology:
Investing in a Healthy U.S. Energy Future
Plenary Panel: Balancing the Technology Role
It’s Gonna be Gas:
Let’s Make it a Smooth Ride
Scott W. Tinker
Eugene Kim
Bureau of Economic Geology
John A. and Katherine G. Jackson School of Geosciences
The University of Texas at Austin
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
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Historical
U.S.
Energy
Consumption
U.S. Energy
Consumption
U.S.
Energy
Consumption
U.S. Energy
Energy
Consumption
Forecast
U.S.
Consumption
Forecast
U.S. Energy Consumption
100%
1973
100%
120
1
160.00
0.9
140.00
100
Total Market
% ofQuad
BTU
Market
Total
% of
BTU
Quad
Percentage
of Market
Share
80%
80
70
0.880%
120.00
0.7
80
60%
Liquids (Oil)
100.00
0.660%
Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy
Hydroelectric
Hydroelectric
Nuclear
Energy
Nuclear Energy
Natural
Gas,
NRH
Gases and
Renewables
Natural
Gas
Natural Gas
60
80.00
0.5
10
40%
60.00
0.4
40
90
0.3
20
40.00
20
20% 20%
0.2 Solids
20.00Liquids
30
0.1
0
Gases
+
Renewables
0%
0.00
0% 0
Liquids
Liquids Oil Imported
Imported
100
40%
Solids
Oil Produced
Solids Oil
Produced
Coal
Coal
Wood and Waste
Wood and Waste
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
50
l
40
l
30
l
20
10
l
l
l
l
l
l
ll
100
l
ll l
l
60
l
ll
ll
ll lll
l
2040
2025
2010
1995
1980
1965
1950
80
l
Data:Data:
EIA EIA
Data: EIA
Natural Gas
& NRH Drivers
l 1975
l 1980
Supply
Instability
•Efficiencyll 1985
1990
l 1995
Price
Volatility
2000
•EconomiclStability
Governmental Policy
•Economic Well Being
Technology
•Environmental Quality
•Resource Availability
70
ll
ll
ll
1935
50
1920
1905
1890
1875
60
1860
1845
Forecast Tinker
40
1845 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
90
l
l
100
90
80
Solids (Wood, Coal)
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Gases (Natural Gas, Nuclear, Renewables, Hydrogen)
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Efficiency
Natural Gas is Efficient Relative to
Other Electricity Generation Fuels
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
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Economic Stability
10.00%
$35.00
Crude Oil Domestic Wellhead Price
8.00%
$30.00
6.00%
$25.00
Natural Gas Could Help Stabilize
Energy Price Volatility
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
4.00%
$20.00
2.00%
$15.00
0.00%
$10.00
-2.00%
$5.00
-4.00%
$0.00
Crude Oil Domestic Wellhead Price ($/bbl)
GDP Growth (% change from previous year)
GDP Growth
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Economic Well-Being
Per capita income
$30,000
United
States
$25,000
Canada
France
Germany
United Kingdom
$20,000
Japan
Italy
Economic Prosperity Relies on
$15,000
Available, Affordable Energy
Saudi Arabia
$10,000
Indonesia
Mexico
Brazil
Russia
$5,000
China
India
0
0
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
Note: 15 largest
economies
shown in red.
5
10
15
20
25
Per-capita oil consumption (bbl/yr)
30
Source: JPT, May 2001
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Environmental Quality
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel Source
3,500,000,000
U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector
3,000,000,000
Other Renewables
Non-Electricity Generation in Residential,
Commercial and Industrial
Hydro
Transportation
Nuclear
Electricity Generation
2,500,000,000
Mkwh
1,600
2,000,000,000
Natural Gas
1,500,000,000
Petroleum
1,000,000,000
Coal
1,200
MM Metric Tons of Coal
500,000,000
0
1950
1960
1970
1990
1980
2000
Natural Gas is Clean(er)
Data, EIA, 2000
800
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Electricity Generation
3,000,000,000
Short Tons
2,500,000,000
400
2,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
0
1949
1,000,000,000
1954
1959
1964
Other Units
Gas-Fired Units
Petroleum-Fired Units
Coal-Fired
Units
1969
1974
1979
500,000,000
0
1989
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
1984
1989
1994
1999
Data: EIA, 2002
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Data, EIA, 2000
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Resource Availability
& Sustainability
1999 NPC Study (NPC, 1999b)
Recoverable Portion of In-Place Gas Resource (Tcf)
Cumulative Production (811)
Reserves (157)
Reserve Growth (305)
Undiscovered, Unconventional
Reserves (1,004)
Unassessed Unconventional Reserves (400)
U.S. Production to Date
Increasing
Increasing
Decreasing
Increasing
development
technology
Potential
gasuncertainty
concentration
needs
costs
Resource
Natural Gas Resources are Available
Although More Unconventional
Geopressured Brine (Up to 24,000)
Gas Hydrate (Up to 300,000)
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
Not Assessed by NPC
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U.S. Natural Gas
An Unconventional Future
“Conventional” Unconventionals
Shale
25,000
Deepwater+Subsalt Offshore
L48 Unconventional Onshore
Shallow Offshore
L48 Conventional Onshore
Tight Gas, Shale Gas, CBM
Coalbed Methane
$3
20,000
15,000
$2
10,000
“Unconventional” Unconventionals
$1
Deep (>15,000
ft)
Associated
and High-Perm
Gas
Subsalt
5,000
0
1949
Wellhead Price ($/mcf)
Annual Natural Gas Production (Bcf)
Tight30,000
(Low Permeability)
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981 1985 1989 1993
Deep
Water
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
Year
EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
Methane Hydrates
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Tight Gas, Shale Gas, CBM
Fractures
Fracture
Transmitted Light
CL
Match point
Fracture Strike
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
East Texas, Travis Peak Formation
Laubach et al., 2000, The Leading Edge
Laubach, 1997, AAPG Bulletin
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Policy & Investment
Tight Gas Resources
*Advanced Stimulation Technology
*Greater Green River Basin Shale Gas
*Piceance Basin
Federal Alternative
State of Texas
Fuels Production Credit
Incentives
GRI Tight GasGas
for Unconventional
3,500.0
3,000.0
$3
Bcf
2,500.0
$2
DOE
2,000.0
1,500.0
11 Tcf Incremental Gas
1,000.0
Wellhead Price ($/Mcf)
4,000.0
$1
500.0
0.0
1970
GRI, 1999, GRI’s Gas Resource Database.
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
1975
1980
DOE personal communication.
1985
1990
1995
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE TIGHT GAS BASINS
(Technically Recoverable Resources)
Rocky Mountain
Foreland
(13.7 Tcf)
San Juan
(5.6 Tcf)*
Permian Basin
(19.5 Tcf)
0
400 m i
0
600 km
Midcontinent
(16.9 Tcf)
Appalachian
(18.3 Tcf)
Arkla-Tex
(29.8 Tcf)
N
78 Tcf
Texas Gulf
Onshore
(9.1 Tcf)
Bu rea u
of
Ec on o mi c
G eo lo g y
Data: NPC (2000), * Based on estimates of NPC (1993),
QAc9715c
San Juan Basin tight gas resource included with oil field reserve appreciation and new fields in NPC (2000)
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
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Policy & Investment
Shale Gas Resources
Antrim Shale Research
Appalachian Basin Shales
350.0
GRI
Bcf
250.0
$2
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
2.2 Tcf Incremental Gas
DOE
(1976-1992)
0.0
1980
GRI, 1999, GRI’s Gas Resource Database.
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
Wellhead Price ($/Mcf)
300.0
$1
1985
DOE personal communication.
1990
1995
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEVONIAN SHALE BASINS
Technically Recoverable Resources
Michigan Antrim
(16.9 Tcf)
Appalachian
(23.4 Tcf)
Illinois
New Albany
(2.9 Tcf)
Ft. Worth
Barnett Shale
(7.2 Tcf)
Bu rea u
of
Ec on o mi c
G eo lo g y
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
0
400 m i
0
600 km
Data: NPC (2000)
Cincinnati
Arch
(2.2 Tcf)
N
40 Tcf
QAc9712c
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Policy & Investment
Coalbed Methane Resources
1,200.0
1,000.0
Bcf
800.0
DOE
600.0
Federal Alternative
Fuels Production Credit
for Unconventional Gas
$2
400.0
4.5 Tcf
Incremental Gas
200.0
$1
0.0
1980
GRI, 1999, GRI’s Gas Resource Database.
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
Wellhead Price ($/Mcf)
GRI
1985
DOE personal communication.
1990
1995
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE COALBED METHANE BASINS
(Total Most Likely Resources)
Powder River
(24.0 Tcf)
Uinta & Piceance
(5.5 Tcf)
San Juan
(10.2 Tcf)
Bu rea u
of
Ec on o mi c
G eo lo g y
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
0
400 m i
0
600 km
Hanna-Carbon (4.4 Tcf)
Raton-Mesa (3.7 Tcf)
SW Coal Region
(5.8 Tcf) Black Warrior
(4.4 Tcf)
Data: PGC (2001)
Northern Appalachian
and PA Anthracite
(10.6 Tcf)
N
81 Tcf
Alaska
(Bering River, North Slope,
Chignik and Herendeen Bay)
(57.0 Tcf)
QAc9714c
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Deep Gas
Seismic Attribute Analysis
Source:
A. Guzman, 2001, HGS
PEMEX E&P Planning
Jalapa
Cardel
Veracruz
Córdoba
Lagarto
Miralejos
P.Oro
T. Higueras
180Km²
M.R.A. Cópite
M.Pionche
Mecayucan
277 Km²
Playuela
240 Km²
Cocuite
Angostura
Tlacotalpan
Estanzuela
SÍSMICA 3D
CAMPO DE GAS
O ACEITE
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
R.Pacheco CoapaMirador
Gloria
San Pablo
Veinte 280 Km²
Nopaltepec
Novillero
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MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP (>15,000 FT) GAS BASINS
(Total Most Likely Resources)
Montana
Folded Belt
(5.2 Tcf)
Greater Green River
(8.4 Tcf)
Wind River
(5.0 Tcf)
San Joaquin
(9.0 Tcf)
Permian
(12.9 Tcf)
Bu rea u
of
Ec on o mi c
G eo lo g y
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
0
400 m i
0
600 km
Appalachian
(5.0 Tcf)
Anadarko, Palo Duro
(17.7 Tcf)
LA, MS, AL Salt
(15.8 Tcf)
Texas
Gulf Coast
(14.3 Tcf)
62 Tcf
N
Louisiana
Gulf Coast
(14.5 Tcf)
Data: PGC (2001)
QAc9713c
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Deep Water Gas
Salt Tectonics
Physical Models
Seismic Studies
Field Studies
Numerical Models
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
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Martin Jackson, AGL, BEG
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP-WATER GAS BASINS
(Total Most Likely Resources)
Pacific Slope
(8.9 Tcf)
71 Tcf
Louisiana Slope
(12.4 Tcf)
Texas Slope
(4.3 Tcf)
0
400 m i
0
600 km
Gulf of Mexico OCS
(47.7 Tcf)
Bu rea u
of
Ec on o mi c
G eo lo g y
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
Data: PGC (2001)
N
Eastern Gulf Slope
(7.6 Tcf)
QAc9716c
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Policy & Investment
Creating Unconventional Resources
30,000
U.S. Fossil Energy R&D Funding
(Technically
Recoverable)
Deepwater+Subsalt Offshore
$1,600L48 Unconventional Onshore
Tight
Gas
$1,400
25,000
20,000
$1,200
78 Tcf
Shale
Gas
$1,000
40 Tcf
$800
CBM
81 Tcf
Millions $
Annual Natural Gas Production (Bcf)
Unc. Gas Major Basins
15,000
Private
Federal
170 Tcf
10,000
$600
Deep
Gas
$400
62 Tcf
5,000
$200
Deep Water
0
$0 1953
1949
1957
1992
1961
71 Tcf
1965
1993
EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
1969
1973
1994
1977
1981
1995Year
1985
1989
1996
332 Tcf
1993
1997
1997
2001
2005
1998
2009
2013
1999
Data: Science and Engineering Indicators 2000, NSF.
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Summary
Efficiency, economy, environment and resource
availability all point towards a natural gas future.
Natural gas will come increasingly from
“unconventional sources”, and history shows that a
balance between production incentives and technology
investment will result in the creation of new
unconventional natural gas resources.
The Federal/Private research and technology
investment ratio needs to be increased if the U.S.
transition to natural gas is to be smooth.
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
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Thank you!
Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2002
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