What government policy might mean for local authorities and their partners working in SE London Christine ME Whitehead London School of Economics SELPH Conference Lewisham, 6 December 2010

Why all the Hurry?

• Narrow window of opportunity • Need for change across the system if any part to work effectively • Changing understanding and expectations • “It’s not working and its expensive” – so worth changing almost whatever • Ideology

Why is London being treated differently?

• Seen to be working • Elected regional authority • Need to plan at regional level accepted • Need for additional new homes on whatever criterion • But localism is highly relevant – at community level as well as local authority and sub-regional level

What is meant by Community Level?

• Parishes – but do they exist everywhere/ are they relevant to decision-making?

• Who has a voice and how do referenda work?

• Is there a voice for the incomer?

• Will most responses be negative? – in particular when it comes to development

New Homes Bonus

• Political imperative that it succeeds – Implies build simply/quickly; starting now • Emphasis on greenfield in the South and East Local freedom to match costs/viability to benefits on standards • Net new additions – so effect on authorities with large regeneration projects highly negative • Not clear how current brown field programmes can be funded • Implications for grant allocation if do not provide • Is it enough to offset NIMBY/BANANAisms?

Housing Changes: 1. Local Housing Allowance

• LHA changes affect almost everyone in the country but the immediate large scale effects concentrated in London • Caps affect relatively small numbers of people but 5+ especially likely to hit particular groups • Adjustment to 30% - but in many boroughs, far more than 30% of tenants on LHA – So impact depends on the rent gradient in the area. Inherently many will have to top up or move

Housing Changes: 1: Local Housing Allowance (continued) • Increases in rents against CPI will worsen the situation further over time • For all that the ‘affordable’ areas are concentrated in the East and in outer boroughs • These are areas where there is more private rented housing but there are also already areas of concentrated deprivation and of those on LHA • Will rents come down? The argument that the government is a ‘monopsony buyer’ has some merit. But least likely to work in London • Have they thought about the spatial implications?

2. Social Housing Changes

• If new build were to be at 80% of market rent unaffordable by potential social tenants – but are there providers prepared to offer lower rents?

• Does it make sense as an intermediate rental product?

• Can other funding/subsidy be made available?

• The role of publicly owned/HCA land • Can HA reserves fill the gap?

• Localism = making partnership funding stack up? Or reducing output?

• Risks: will rents below 80% imply no central government support? Will financial institutions be prepared to fund?

Social Housing: a Two-Tiered System?

• Existing tenants – Turnover falling/succession becoming more important – a sector which is silting up more and more – Mobility through transfer – the potential for losing rights?

– Local decisions on priorities e.g. with respect to downsizing • New tenants – Rents up to 80% of market – but will DWP take the strain?

– Security of tenure – shorter term rolling contracts – Issues re income related rents? Re comparisons between social and private sectors – What will be the demand?

Measuring Need?

• Homelessness prevention – solving problems in the private rented sector • Changes in local authority responsibilities • Waiting lists – how long? – especially if rents higher • Overcrowding in both the social and private rented sector • The need for data and monitoring to support assessments

Conclusions

• In terms of the title of the talk – government policy change will mean a great deal – but what is not so clear • Change for change sake or an overall coherence? – there is a logic; but not necessary a full implementation plan • Will demand for housing fall to meet supply?

• Will partnerships be able to piece together funding?

• What about regeneration outside the Olympic park legacy? • Will London fare better than the rest of the country? • How to play on the fact that the policy must be seen to work within five years?