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Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm Denis L. Balaguer José Eduardo de C. Bezerra Rodrigo C. da Silva Embraer Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 1. Introduction The aeronautical industry and the need for a prospective mindset • The aeronautical industry – Commercial leadership strongly driven by the continuous innovation; – But, the products development cycles are complex, long and integrated. • This leads to high uncertainties and high risks • Thus, in order to mitigate the risks associated with innovation, is mandatory to deal with futures studies, with a prospective view of the future (Balaguer et al, 2007). – Probabilistic assessment of possible future worlds, or scenarios - no need to choose a single set of future market assumptions. Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 1. Introduction The aeronautical industry and the need for a prospective mindset • Traditionally scenarios building approach: Delphi. – Long and in most cases extenuating process. • Improved approach: Real-Time Delphi – RTD (Gordon and Pease, 2006). – Resembles the traditional Delphi, but using a web based environment; – Real-time feedback which drives the consensus in a more streamlined way; – More active interaction between the exercise managers and the respondents. • This paper shows a case of RTD use as tool for a scenarios building exercise on an aeronautical firm. – Conceptual foundations; – Context of the application and the main pitfalls; and – Solutions developed. Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology The scenarios approach • Quantitative probabilistic assessment of future scenarios (Marcial and Grumbach, 2005). – 1. Construct a model of the system to be analyzed • 1.1. Identification of the variables that describes de system behavior; • 1.2. Identification of single possible events that quantifies the changes through the variables. – 2. Conduct expert survey (Delphi) • 2.1. Quantify the possibility of occurrence of the events; • 2.2. Quantify the importance of the events to the system. – 3. Build the scenarios (by combinatory analysis). – 4. Select a scenarios set for further analysis. • Scenarios question: future of the aeronautical transportation. Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi • Delphi concerning the model of the system built • Consult based on a web site running on the firms’ intranet system with a friendly interface. – The site is programmed using the Cold Fusion language – Databases using SQL.. • First phase of the Delphi. – Probability of occurrence of the events; – Importance of the events to the system; and – Self-evaluation of the experts concerning the theme of the event. • Second phase of the Delphi. – Cross influence of the occurrence of each event on all others events (crossimpact matrix). • In both phases: – Graph with the distribution of all the answers; – Choice to change the vote; and – Space to make comments about their votes. Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi • Detailed view of the RTD page (phase 1) Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi • Combo-box (phase 1) Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi • Explanation box (phase 1) Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi • Votes distribution chart (phase 1) Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi • Detailed view of the RTD page (phase 2) Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 2. Methodology Real-Time Delphi • Votes distribution chart (phase 2) Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 3. Results Participation effectiveness • The first phase of the Delphi – Participation effectiveness of 62% • In the previous scenario exercise with paper forms the participation effectiveness was 46%. • The second phase of the Delphi – Participation effectiveness of 43% • In the previous scenario exercise with paper forms the participation effectiveness was 33%. Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 3. Results Convergence and discussions Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for Scenarios Building: a case report on an aeronautical firm 4. Conclusions Scenario and Real-Time Delphi • The experience of using Real-Time Delphi (RTD) in the aeronautical prospective exercise report proved fruitful. – Importance of the RTD to enable a more streamlined way to achieve the results of a Delphi process. • Also some others interesting results achieved – Participation effectiveness; – Good convergence through a reasonable consensus; and, – Rich discussion environment that was created at the web page.