Transcript Uses of fertility and mortality statistics

International Conference on MDG Statistics
Manila, 1 October 2007
The MDGs at mid-point:
What do we know and next steps
Francesca Perucci
United Nations Statistics Division
Monitoring progress towards
the MDGs
1. Why is monitoring important?
2. The impact of the monitoring
requirements
3. What do we know at the MDG midpoint?
Monitoring progress towards
the MDGs
1. Why is monitoring important?
Monitoring: an essential element in
achieving the goals
 Global monitoring
 To inform the international political debate
 To sensitize public opinion on global development


issues
To help development partners identify priorities
To improve coordination and collaboration within the
international community
 National monitoring
 To raise awareness and help focus national debate

on development issues
To help set national priorities
 Both processes have been instrumental to
increase the demand and promote the use of
statistics for policy making and monitoring
Monitoring the MDGs and the
impact on statistical systems
 Monitoring requirements in countries have
increased the demand for official statistics
 National and international reports have
increased the visibility of official statistics
 Monitoring reports are important
advocacy tool for strengthening statistical
capacity and improving statistics
 Monitoring requirements have called the
attention to shortcomings in the
availability of data
Monitoring progress towards
the MDGs
2. The impact of the monitoring
requirements
Global monitoring: bringing the
national and the international
statistical systems closer together
 Data gaps and inconsistencies have been
uncovered in the international series
 The dialogue between national and
international statistical communities is
initiated in the UN Statistical Commission
and in the IAEG on MDG Indicators
 The Friends of the Chair review what’s
available in international sources
 The debate has been very intense and has
resulted in a number of very concrete and
effective actions.
Improved dialogue: the first results
Results:
 ECSOC Resolution, in July 2006, to address:
 issues related to national statistical capacity building
 transparency and adequacy of metadata in international sources
 use of sound methodologies for MDG indicators and estimates.
 Increasing involvement of countries’ agencies in the
process of estimation and adjustment of data
 National statistical offices in the IAEG made
recommendations to improve data availability in
international sources:
 Through improved reporting mechanisms
 Through better coordination within national statistical
systems
 Better understanding by national statisticians of MDG
indicators metadata
Monitoring progress towards
the MDGs
3. What do we know at the MDG
mid-point?
The MDGs at mid-point



The Millennium Declaration and the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) have become a truly
shared framework for development.
The “MDG mid-point” presents a vital opportunity
for UN leadership and for donor countries to
promote and support acceleration of the
implementation of the MDGs.
The focus for the remaining seven years must be on
implementation.
Progress at the MDG Mid-Point
 Seven years on and halfway to 2015, the
deadline set for the achievement of the
Millennium Development Goals, we see
that success is possible.
 The Goals, which set quantitative
benchmarks to halve extreme poverty in
all its forms, are achievable if countries
commit themselves to sound governance
and accountability and receive adequate
support from the international community.
What do we know?



For the first time, we have enough data to see
what progress has been made since world leaders
committed themselves to eradicate extreme
poverty.
The results presented in the 2007 Report suggest
that there have been some gains and that success
is still possible in most parts of the world.
Encouragingly, data suggest that some progress
is being made even in those countries where the
challenge is greatest and it points to some success
in building the requisite global partnership.
Progress is visible in many areas





The proportion of people living in extreme poverty fell
from nearly a third to less than one-fifth cent between
1990 and 2004.
The number of extremely poor people in sub-Saharan
Africa has leveled off and the poverty rate has declined
by nearly six percentage points since 2000.
Child mortality has declined globally: life-saving
interventions are effective in reducing the number of
deaths due to the main killers—as demonstrated by
measles.
Key interventions to control malaria have been
expanded.
The tuberculosis (TB) epidemic appears finally on the
verge of declining, but progress is not fast enough to
halve prevalence and death rates by 2015.
Progress is visible in many areas


Progress has been made in bringing more children
to school in the developing world. Enrolment in
primary education grew from 80 per cent in 1991
to 88 per cent in 2005.
Women’s political participation has been growing,
albeit slowly. Even in countries where previously
only men were allowed to stand for political
elections, women have been elected.

The Goals can be achieved even in very
poor countries
Many African countries are leading the way in
developing national-scale programmes that have
yielded big results in a short time:
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



agricultural productivity has been dramatically raised
in Malawi;
more children are going to primary school in Ghana,
Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda;
malaria is being brought under control in Niger, Togo,
Zambia and Zanzibar;
land is being reforested on a large scale in Niger;
and Senegal is on track to halving the proportion of
people without access to clean water and sanitation.
But a lot remains to be done
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
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Over half a million women still die each and every year
from treatable and preventable complications of
pregnancy and childbirth.
If current trends continue, the target of halving the
proportion of underweight children will be missed by the
amount of 30 million, especially because of slow progress
in Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
The number of people dying from AIDS worldwide has
increased to 2.9 million in 2006 and prevention measures
are failing to keep pace with the growth of the epidemic.
In 2005, over 15 million children had lost one or both
parents to AIDS.
The benefits of economic growth in the developing world
have been unequally shared. Widening income inequality
is of particular concern in Eastern Asia.
And despite renewed commitments, aid falls

Rich countries need to meet the long-standing
target of devoting 0.7 per cent of their gross
national income to official development
assistance. The leading industrialized countries
pledged to double aid to Africa by 2015, at the
G8 Summit in 2005, and have just reaffirmed
this commitment at the Heiligendamm Summit.
But since then, aid to the continent and overall to
the poorest countries, excluding debt relief and
humanitarian assistance, has barely increased.
1
Eradicate extreme
poverty & hunger
46.8
45.9
41.1
Sub-Saharan Africa
 Extreme poverty is
beginning to fall in
sub-Saharan Africa,
and child hunger is
declining in all
regions
33.4
29.5
Southern Asia
Eastern Asia
9.9
33
17.8
10.3
9.6
8.7
Latin America & the Caribbean
8.9
6.8
South-Eastern Asia
20.8
1.6
2.5
3.8
Western Asia
2.6
2
1.4
Northern Africa
Transition countries of South-Eastern Europe
41.1
1990
1999
0
1.3
0.7
0.5
CIS
0.6
2004
5.5
Developing regions
23.4
19.2
0
10
20
30
31.6
40
50
Proportion of people living on less than $1 a day,
1990 and 2004 (Percentage)
2
Achieve universal
primary education
54
57
Sub-Saharan Africa
75
Oceania
81
78
81
85
86
Western Asia

Universal primary
education is in sight,
though children in
sub-Saharan Africa
trail far behind
1991
1999
2005
70
CIS, Europe
83
74
Southern Asia
81
91
90
90
94
92
94
South-Eastern Asia
89
93
94
CIS, Asia
99
99
95
Eastern Asia
82
Northern Africa
90
87
Latin America & the Caribbean
95
94
97
80
83
88
Developing regions
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total net enrolment ratio in primary education,
1990/1991, 1998/1999 and 2004/2005
(Percentage)
120
3
Promote gender equality
and empower women
13
Southern Asia
18
20
20
16
21
Northern Africa
Western Asia
 Doors to labour
markets are
opening slowly for
women
28
32
28
Sub-Saharan Africa
Oceania
South-Eastern Asia
Eastern Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
Developed regions
CIS
World
0
10
20
30
1990
38
2005
38
39
38
41
37
42
44
47
49
51
36
39
40
50
Employees in non-agricultural wage employment
who are women, 1990 and 2005 (Percentage)
60
4
Reduce child
mortality
Sub-Saharan Africa
166
126
Southern Asia
82
81
72
CIS, Asia
 Vaccinations spur
a decline in
measles, but child
survival rates still
show slow
improvement
185
Oceania
63
80
68
Western Asia
55
South-Eastern Asia
78
41
Northern Africa
1990
88
35
2005
54
Latin America & the Caribbean
31
Eastern Asia
27
CIS, Europe
27
17
48
29
Transition countries of South-Eastern Europe
17
Developing regions
83
0
50
100
106
150
200
Under-five mortality rate per 1,000 live births, 1990
and 2005
5
Improve maternal
health
30
38
42
45
Southern Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
 Health-care
interventions for
mothers need to
be made more
widely available
1990
2005
60
66
Western Asia
South-eastern Asia
38
Northern Africa
40
68
75
51
Eastern Asia
83
72
Latin America & the Caribbean
CIS
43
Developing regions
0
20
40
89
96
98
57
60
80
Proportion of deliveries attended by skilled health
care personnel, 1990 and 2005 (Percentage)
100
6
Combat HIV/AIDS,
malaria & other diseases
Latin America & the Caribbean
 Prevention
measures fail to
keep pace with
the spread of HIV,
while the need for
AIDS treatment
grows
72
South-Eastern Asia
49
Western Asia
37
Northern Africa
35
Sub-Saharan Africa
28
Eastern Asia
26
CIS
10
Oceania
10
Southern Asia
2006
9
Developing regions
28
0
20
40
Population living with HIV in need of treatment
who are receiving antiretroviral therapy, 2006
(Percentage)
60
80
7
Ensure environmental
sustainability
1
1
1
3
3
3
Northern Africa
Western Asia
14
14
14
16
18
20
Southern Asia
 Loss of old-growth
forests
continues…
Eastern Asia
1990
2000
29
27
26
30
31
31
Sub-Saharan Africa
Developed regions
2005
39
39
39
CIS
Latin America & the Caribbean
50
47
46
South-Eastern Asia
50
47
56
68
65
63
Oceania
31
31
30
World
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Proportion of land area covered by forests, 1990,
2000 and 2005 (Percentage)
7
Ensure environmental
sustainability
2.9
Eastern Asia
5.6
3.2
CIS
2.4
1.0
Southern Asia
 Growing greenhouse
gas emissions
continue to outpace
advances in
sustainable energy
technologies
2.0
1.1
1.4
Latin America & the Caribbean
Western Asia
0.7
1.2
South-Eastern Asia
0.5
1.1
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.5
0.7
Northern Africa
0.2
0.5
Oceania
<0.1
<0.1
1990
2004
9.7
Developed regions
12.5
6.9
Developing regions
12.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Emissions of carbon dioxide, 1990-2004 (Billions
of metric tons)
14
8
Develop a global partnership
for development
120
Net Debt Relief Grants
Humanitarian Aid
Bilateral Development
Contributions to Multilateral Organisations
100
80
 Official development
assistance declined
between 2005 and
2006 and is expected
to continue to fall
slightly in 2007 as
debt relief declines
further….
60
40
20
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Official development assistance from developed
countries, 1990-2006 (Constant 2005 United
States dollars)
2006
(preliminary)
8
Develop a global partnership
for development
90
80
 …preferential
market access
has stalled
70
60
All developing
countries
Least developed
countries
50
40
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Proportion of imports from developing countries (excluding
arms and oil) admitted to developed countries duty-free,
1996-2005 (Percentage)
Accelerating MDG implementation
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Nationally-owned development strategies and budgets
must be aligned with the MDGs. This must be backed up
by adequate financing, including ODA where necessary,
within the global partnership for development and its
framework for mutual accountability.
Stronger national statistical systems and associated
capacity building are needed to achieve the MDGs.
The UN Policy Committee has established a Task Force
to monitor implementation.
The UN Secretary-General has launched a new initiative
to accelerate progress in Africa—the MDG Africa
Steering Group.