Transcript Slide 1
Moving toward Decision-Making as a Central Focus Susi Moser (ESIG) Other Core Collaborators: Lisa Dilling Linda Mearns WCIAS Strategy • Filling critical gaps in weather and climate impact assessment science • Developing integrating methodology • Moving toward decision-making as a centerpiece • Promoting integration of assessment science activities at NCAR, nationally and internationally Overview • Decision-making in the WCAI – An Evolutionary Perspective • Moving Toward Decision-Making as the Central Focus • DUST • Future Directions Evolutionary Perspective • Intentions: – Produce science of high societal value – Make uncertainties in weather/climate assessments more transparent to decisionmakers (quantify, characterize, communicate) – Assess the feasibility of an end-to-end characterization of uncertainty (i.e., from global climate model to decision-making) • From providing decision support to also examining the decision process… Weather Extremes in Aviation Extremes statistics Safety control Information need Climate & Climate Change California Water Resources Project Physical Hydrology Watershed Management Decisions •Sykes Reservoir •FERC Relicensing •Conjunctive Use •System Operations Integrated Decision Support Credibility Relevance Socio-Economics Legitimacy Ecosystem Services Decision-Makers •CALFED •State Assembly •Cal. Water Dept. •Others Front Range Flood Management Weather and climate research (NCAR, NOAA, Universities) Scientific & Technical Information Federal agencies (e.g., FEMA, NFIP, NWS, Army Corps) Rules Regulations Advice Conditional $ Private sector consultants State and Regional flood management agencies Local floodplain administration Local needs Political and economic constraints Wildfire Project Perception of risk and uncertainty? Information needs? Homeowners & Local planners Retrofitting decisions Information needs? Code changes Decision Model WILDFIRE INITIATIVE CLIMATE VARIABILITY • drought • “fire-weather” Toward Decision-making as a Central Focus Mitigation Decision-Making (Assessment of needs, decision entry points, institutional constraints, politics etc.) For WCIAS projects where decision-making matters…. Adaptation DUST – The Decision Uncertainty Screening Tool • Purpose – Integrative link between physical sciences, uncertainty analyses, and decision- and policy-making – Procedure to identify where and how science can most effectively support decision-making – Systematic approach to determining where and when uncertainty matters DUST – A stepwise, iterative attempt at improving the science/decision-maker interaction • Premises – Decision-maker and decision-making are central – Scientific information can be an important input into decisionmaking – No assumption about best way to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty – No preference for a “top-down” or “bottom-up” approach to assessments • Objectives – For all kinds of decisions – For a variety of decision-making contexts – For a range of decision-makers – Applicable at a variety of scales Step 1: Identify the stage in the decision process where climate science can enter Step 2: Ensure that scientific input is useful, credible, and legitimate (A) (B) Science Science Decision-making Credibility Legitimacy Usefulness - Relevance - Compatibility - Accessibility - Receptivity Decision-making Step 3: Identify the type of decision problem decision-makers face OPTIMIZATION – EVALUATION – ROBUST ADAPTIVE PLANNING Step 4: Identify the specific decision challenge A three-dimensional typology of climate-sensitive decisions - Optimization/Evaluation - Near-/Long-term - One-time/Sequential Step 5: Identify necessary uncertainty analyses Step 6: Conduct identified uncertainty analyses Step 7: Communicate uncertainties back to the decision-maker • Familiarity • Format Coordination • Link back to decision problem Accuracy • Explanation of Wrong information may be worse uncertainties than none at all Keep others informed of what they need to know, without overburdening them with unnecessary information Good Communication Information Who needs to know what Timeliness Confirmation Avoid confusion by delivering message/ data on time Make sure they right people have the information they need Expected Outcomes • Streamlining and prioritization of uncertainty assessment • Greater transparency and awareness • Educational for scientists (and beginning scholars, students of applied science) • Educational for decision-makers • Boundary object Credibility Relevance Legitimacy Using DUST to Move Forward… • DUST: educational, screening tool, a heuristic • Informs the interpretation of, and learning from, past projects • Informs the development of future research projects Future Directions • NCAR-RISA Collaboration – Workshop to establish linkages in FY05 • Communication of Uncertainty to DecisionMakers – Collaboration with DMUU at RAND Corp. • Feasibility Limits of Adaptation Strategies to Sea-Level rise – Project development during early FY05 – Comparative case study approach – Multi-disciplinary collaboration • Decision-making at the Climate–Health Interface – Heat waves – Air quality management • Scales of decision-making - Carbon flux - Water resource management • Societal use of weather information