Transcript www.tbb.org.tr

Turkish Banking Sector and Turkish Banks
Sadrettin Bagci
November 2008
Tel : +90 212 336 7277
Fax: +90 212 282 2256
[email protected]
TURKISH BANKING SECTOR
Past Performance
Recent Trends
Outlook
2
BANKING SECTOR – Continous Growth since 2002
Loans, TRY Billion
Deposits, TRY Billion
350
450
400
300
350
CAGR: 20.9%
250
300
CAGR: 38.4%
200
250
337
150
405
200
280
357
150
218
100
254
100
153
142
103
50
56
313
161
197
50
70
0
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1H08
2002
2003
Equity, TRY Billion
2004
2005
2006
2007
1H08
Assets, TRY Billion
80
700
70
600
CAGR: 21.9%
60
500
CAGR: 21.2%
50
400
40
73
30
54
633
300
561
485
46
20
10
74
58
200
397
36
26
100
0
213
250
306
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1H08
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1H08
3
Source: The Banks Association of Turkey
1
BANKING SECTOR – Penetration Improved as well
• Significant growth performance over the last six years, beating the 19.2% CAGR in Nominal GDP
Loans to GDP
Deposits to GDP
40%
50%
45%
35%
40%
30%
35%
25%
30%
20%
37%
33%
15%
20%
29%
16%
15%
41%
35%
35%
2003
2004
44%
39%
41%
42%
2005
2006
2007
1H08
64%
66%
69%
61%
2005
2006
2007
1H08
15%
24%
10%
25%
18%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1H08
2002
Equity to GDP
Assets to GDP
9%
80%
70%
9%
60%
50%
8%
40%
9%
8%
8%
61%
8%
8%
7%
30%
8%
55%
55%
2003
2004
20%
8%
7%
10%
7%
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1H08
2002
4
Source: The Banks Association of Turkey and the Central Bank of Turkey
2
BANKING SECTOR – Main Drivers of the Loan Growth post 2002
While
• Pent-up demand during the crisis period in 2001 and
• Gradual decline in interest rates
have helped for increasing loan demand after 2002,
• Easing public sector borrowing requirement due to falling domestic debt stock
has enabled banks to shift their focus from domestic borrowing instruments to loans
60%
55%
20%
Domestic Debt Stock / GDP -left scale
Public Sector Borrowing Requirement -right scale
Loans to Assets
50%
50%
15%
Security Portfolio to Assets
45%
40%
10%
40%
30%
35%
5%
20%
30%
25%
0%
10%
20%
12 02
06 03
12 03
06 04
12 04
06 05
12 05
06 06
12 06
06 07
12 07
06 08
0%
-5%
1998
1999
2000
2001
Source: The Banks Association of Turkey and the State Planning Organization
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
5
3
BANKING SECTOR – Share of Foreign Banks has Increased
Meanwhile the Turkish Banking Sector has attracted the interest of foreing banks thanks to the
• Strong growth potential backed by the favorable population dynamics, strengthening economic activity and
of course with the EU accession progress.
• The share of foreign banks in the Turkish Banking Sector has significantly increased from a mere 3% at
end 2002 to around 26% as of June 2008.
Turkish Banks with Foreing Partners
Turkish Party
Foreing Party
Akbank
Citibank
Denizbank
Dexia
Fortis Bank
Fortis
Sekerbank
Bank Turan Alem
TEB
BNP Paribas
Garanti Bank
GECF
Yapi Kredi Bank
Unicredit
Finans Bank
NBG
Foreign Banks in Turkey
ABN AMRO Bank N.V.
Arap Turk Bank
Bank Mellat
Citibank
Deutsche Bank
Eurobank Tekfen
HSBC
ING Bank
JPMorgan Chase Bank
Millennium Bank
Sociéte Générale
Source: Banks Association of Turkey
Share of Foreign Banks in Turkish Banking Sector
Now BNP Paribas
30%
25%
20%
15%
26.0%
10%
5%
3.1%
0%
2002
1H08
Source: Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency
6
4
BANKING SECTOR – Players w.r.to Ownership
PLAYERS w.r.to OWNERSHIP
As of August 2008
Sector
Deposit Banks
Public
Private
Foreign
Participation Banks
Investment & Development Banks
# of Banks
50
33
4
11
18
4
13
# of Branches
8,875
8,343
2,357
4,062
1,924
483
49
# of Staff
179,746
163,662
41,751
81,299
40,612
10,701
5,383
Assets
648
605
184
323
97
22
21
Loans
347
320
77
181
62
17
10
Deposits
398
381
136
192
53
17
0
Equity
83
69
17
39
13
3
10
Assets
93%
28%
50%
15%
3%
3%
Loans
92%
22%
52%
18%
5%
3%
Deposits
96%
34%
48%
13%
4%
0%
Equity
84%
21%
47%
16%
4%
12%
Source: Banks Association of Turkey
SIZE of the SECTOR w.r.to OWNERSHIP
As of August 2008, TRY Million
Sector
Deposit Banks
Public
Private
Foreign
Participation Banks
Investment & Development Banks
Source: Banks Association of Turkey
MARKET SHARES w.r.to OWNERSHIP
As of August 2008
Deposit Banks
Public
Private
Foreign
Participation Banks
Investment & Development Banks
7
Source: Banks Association of Turkey
5
BANKING SECTOR – Recent Growth Trends
TRY mn
Deposits
Bank Deposits
Customer Deposits
LC
FC
FC, US$ mn
Customer Time Deposits
Customer Demand Deposits
Demand Deposit Ratio
2005
251,869
8,709
243,160
153,995
89,165
66,452
194,304
48,857
20.1%
2006
308,396
11,581
296,815
181,532
115,283
82,017
243,933
52,882
17.8%
Oct.07
329,283
7,203
322,080
208,257
113,823
96,005
270,180
51,900
16.1%
2007
350,609
10,444
340,165
221,384
118,781
101,984
285,364
54,801
16.1%
Oct.08
425,501
12,625
412,876
268,640
144,236
92,441
355,876
57,000
13.8%
YoY Growth
29.2%
75.3%
28.2%
29.0%
26.7%
-3.7%
31.7%
9.8%
YtD Growth
21.4%
20.9%
21.4%
21.3%
21.4%
-9.4%
24.7%
4.0%
2005
153,101
152,265
7,486
6,650
4.7%
88.8%
108,101
45,001
33,538
107,457
45,644
28,618
12,405
6,146
10,066
17,026
2006
214,998
214,250
8,127
7,379
3.7%
90.8%
156,467
58,531
41,641
147,888
67,110
45,931
22,165
6,405
17,362
21,179
Oct.07
250,161
249,109
9,420
8,368
3.6%
88.8%
188,144
62,016
52,308
166,242
83,919
59,595
28,392
5,766
25,436
24,324
2007
271,865
270,758
9,776
8,669
3.5%
88.7%
202,696
69,169
59,388
180,052
91,813
65,813
30,898
5,928
28,987
26,000
Oct.08
360,005
357,946
11,251
9,192
3.0%
81.7%
252,694
107,311
68,776
244,302
115,703
83,343
38,305
5,802
39,235
32,360
YoY Growth
43.9%
43.7%
19.4%
9.8%
YtD Growth
32.4%
32.2%
15.1%
6.0%
34.3%
73.0%
31.5%
47.0%
37.9%
39.8%
34.9%
0.6%
54.2%
33.0%
24.7%
55.1%
15.8%
35.7%
26.0%
26.6%
24.0%
-2.1%
35.4%
8
24.5%
Source: BRSA Weekly Data
TRY mn
Loans
Performing Loans
Non-Performing Loans
NPL Provisioning
NPL Ratio
NPL Provisioning Ratio
LC Loans
FC Loans
FC Loans, US$mn
Corporate & Commercial Loans
Retail Loans
Consumer Loans
Housing Loans
Auto Loans
General Purpose Loans
Credit Card Loans
Source: BRSA Weekly Data
6
BANKING SECTOR – Recent Growth Trends
TRY Million
Loans
-TRY Loans
-FX Loans
-FX Loans, $
Non-Performing Loans (Net)
Non-Performing Loans (Gross)
Provision for NPL's
Total Deposits and Funds (3)
-Time Deposits and Participation Accounts
-Demand Deposits and Special Current Accounts
-Savings Deposits-TRY
-FX Deposits (Natural Persons)
-FX Deposits (Natural Persons), $
-Other Deposits (Commercial Deposits included)
- TRY
- FX
- FX, $
-Deposits Under Insurance
10.11.08 31.10.08 29.09.08
374,690
268,142
106,548
70,287
2,546
12,278
9,746
442,674
383,128
59,546
173,444
83,820
55,294
166,832
100,127
66,705
44,004
124,286
378,044
269,903
108,141
72,113
2,444
12,069
9,625
444,284
381,137
63,147
172,938
83,970
55,995
168,593
101,531
67,062
44,720
123,925
366,221
273,941
92,280
74,927
2,328
11,399
9,071
432,737
364,824
67,913
165,511
82,594
67,062
166,911
108,081
58,830
47,767
121,592
3.17%
79.38%
13.5%
28.1%
3.09%
79.75%
14.2%
27.9%
3.02%
79.58%
15.7%
28.1%
Source: BRSA Daily Banking Data
NPL Ratio
NPL Coverage Ratio
Demand Deposit Ratio
Guaranteed Deposits / Total Deposits
9
6
BANKING SECTOR – Composition of Assets & Funding
• While loans are the main placement item with 53% share in total assets as of August 2008,
• The funding side is mainly composed of deposits with 61% share
Tangible Assets Other Assets
5%
3%
Other Liabilities
7%
Liquid Assets
12%
Securities
27%
Loans, Net
53%
External
Borrowing
14%
Shareholders'
Equity
13%
Deposits
61%
Short Term
Funds
5%
Source: Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency
10
7
BANKING SECTOR – Composition of Loans
2005
70.6%
29.4%
70.2%
29.8%
18.7%
8.1%
4.0%
6.6%
11.1%
Breakdown of Loans
LC Loans
FC Loans
Corporate & Commercial Loans
Retail Loans
Consumer Loans
Housing Loans
Auto Loans
General Purpose Loans
Credit Card Loans
2006
72.8%
27.2%
68.8%
31.2%
21.4%
10.3%
3.0%
8.1%
9.9%
Oct.07
75.2%
24.8%
66.5%
33.5%
23.8%
11.3%
2.3%
10.2%
9.7%
2007
74.6%
25.4%
66.2%
33.8%
24.2%
11.4%
2.2%
10.7%
9.6%
Oct.08
70.2%
29.8%
67.9%
32.1%
23.2%
10.6%
1.6%
10.9%
9.0%
Source: BRSA Weekly Data
Breakdown of Retail Loans, TRY Million
120,000
Credit Card Loans
100,000
Other Consumer Loans
80,000
Auto Loans
Housing Loans
60,000
40,000
20,000
10 08
06 08
02 08
10 07
06 07
02 07
10 06
06 06
02 06
10 05
06 05
02 05
10 04
06 04
02 04
10 03
06 03
02 03
10 02
0
Source: The Central Bank of Turkey
11
8
BANKING SECTOR – Interest Rates
24.00
Benchmark Interest Rate vs. CBRT's Policy Rate, %
28.00
Benchmark Bond Compound Interest Rate
26.00
22.00
CBRT Compound Policy Rate
24.00
20.00
22.00
18.00
20.00
18.00
16.00
16.00
14.00
Interest Rates in the Treasury Auctions
Policy Rate Compound
14.00
10 08
07 08
04 08
01 08
10 07
07 07
04 07
01 07
10 06
04 06
09 08
700
24.00
600
22.00
500
20.00
400
18.00
300
16.00
200
Duration
14.00
100
Interest Rates in the
Treasury Auctions
12.00
10 08
07 08
04 08
01 08
10 07
07 07
04 07
01 07
10 06
10.00
07 06
0
04 06
07 08
05 08
03 08
01 08
11 07
09 07
07 07
05 07
03 07
01 07
11 06
09 06
07 06
05 06
01 06
11 05
03 06
Source: The Central Bank of Turkey and Istanbul Stock Exchange
07 06
12.00
12.00
Source: The Turkish Treasury and the Central Bank of Turkey
12
9
BANKING SECTOR – Liquidity Ratios have Diminished but Still at
Comfortable Levels
• Compared to a year ago the 1 Week and 1 Month Liquidity ratios have been following a declining path, but
we believe these levels are still strong for our banking sector
2.80
1 Week
2.60
1Month
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
08 07
09 07
10 07
11 07
12 07
01 08
02 08
03 08
04 08
05 08
06 08
07 08
08 08
Source: Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency – Monthly Bulletin
13
10
BANKING SECTOR – Capital Strength is Fair Enough
• The sector’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) stood at 17.7% in August 2008, indicating a 123bps decline
with respect to December 2007 and a 96bps decline from August 2007. The inclusion of operational risk
since June 2007 and the increasing risk weighting of non-cash loans since January 2008 all played a role in
the decline in CAR rates in 2008.
20%
CAR
Equity / Assets
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
08 07
09 07
10 07
11 07
12 07
01 08
02 08
03 08
04 08
05 08
Source: Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency – Monthly Bulletin
06 08
07 08
08 08
14
11
Is
r
Li ae
l
th
ua
ni
a
H
un
ga
ry
C
ze
ch Lat
R via
ep
ub
li
Sl
ov
Po c
ak
la
n
R
ep d
ub
li
R
om c
an
Bu ia
lg
ar
U ia
kr
ai
n
Es e
to
ni
R a
us
si
Bo
sn
C a
r
ia
oa
an
ti
d
Al a
H
b
a
er
ze nia
go
M
v
on ina
te
ne
M
ac gro
ed
on
ia
Tu
rk
Be ey
la
ru
s
Se
rb
M ia
ol
do
va
ze Alb
ch
a
R nia
ep
ub
H lic
un
g
R ary
om
a
Li nia
th
ua
ni
a
Po
la
n
Bu d
lg
ar
ia
L
at
M
v
on
t e ia
ne
gr
o
Is
ra
e
Sl
ov Es l
ak ton
i
R
ep a
ub
li
C c
ro
at
Bo
U ia
sn
k
ra
ia
in
an
e
d
T
H
u
er
rk
e
ze
go y
vi
na
R
us
si
Be a
la
ru
s
Se
rb
M ia
ol
do
va
C
BANKING SECTOR – Comparison of Capital Strength
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
35
Bank Capital to Assets
CAR
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report – October 2008
15
12
BANKING SECTOR – Comparison of NPLs may become a Major
Problem
• Though we still feel confident about the NPL ratio of the sector, which is 3.2% as end of August 2008, the
possibility of further slow-down in Euro Zone economy may pave for a rise.
• Given that our exports to Euro Zone constitutes almost half of the total exports of Turkey, the importance
of the Euro area economic growth becomes more significant.
3.7%
90%
NPL Ratio
3.6%
NPL Provisioning
88%
3.5%
86%
3.4%
3.3%
84%
3.2%
82%
3.1%
3.0%
80%
2.9%
78%
2.8%
2.7%
76%
08 07 09 07 10 07 11 07 12 07 01 08 02 08 03 08 04 08 05 08 06 08 07 08 08 08
Source: Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency – Monthly Bulletin
16
13
La
tv
Es ia
to
n
Be ia
la
Li rus
th
ua
ni
a
H
un
ga
Bu ry
lg
ar
ia
Is
ra
Sl
e
ov Ru l
ak
ss
Bo
i
sn Cz Re a
ec pu
ia
an h R bli
c
d
H epu
er
b
li
ze
go c
vi
n
P a
M ola
on
n
te d
ne
gr
Al o
ba
ni
a
Tu
rk
e
M
y
ol
do
v
Se a
rb
i
C a
r
M oat
ac
ia
ed
on
R
om ia
an
U ia
kr
ai
ne
14.0
Sl
C
k
Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report – October 2008
ia
us
s
ia
va
La
tv
R
y
lic
ol
do
ep
ub
M
R
ke
Tu
r
gr
o
ro
at
ia
us
l
lic
ae
la
r
Is
r
ep
ub
e
ia
ai
n
kr
Be
R
U
on
te
ne
M
ze
ch
an
om
160.0
ov
a
C
R
BANKING SECTOR – Comparison of NPLs
NPL Provisioning
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
NPL Ratio
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
17
14
BANKING SECTOR – Short FX Positions were Cut Recently
• We had observed that banks reduced their on balance short FX positions from over US$14bn in mid August
2008 to around US$5.2bn by end of October 2008. Although the on balance short FX positions are mostly
hedged (net short FX position of the system is US$1.3bn as of 31 October 2008), we still harbour some
doubts regarding the quality of the hedging.
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
Net FX Position
On Balance
Off Balance
-15,000
10 08
08 08
06 08
04 08
02 08
12 07
10 07
08 07
06 07
04 07
02 07
12 06
10 06
08 06
06 06
04 06
02 06
12 05
10 05
-20,000
Source: Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency – Weekly Bulletin
18
15
BANKING SECTOR – Profitability has slowed down
• We haven’t observed that a severe deterioration in the top-line growth yet but especially the increasing
provisioning and the higher OPEX growth compared to the overall revenue growth, we face with a decline
in the profitability ratios.
• We are almost sure that the economic imbalances will result in a further slow down in the profitability
ratios in the following three to nine months time.
23%
3.0%
RoAE -left scale
22%
2.9%
RoAA -right scale
2.8%
21%
2.7%
20%
2.6%
2.5%
19%
2.4%
18%
2.3%
17%
2.2%
08 07 09 07 10 07 11 07 12 07 01 08 02 08 03 08 04 08 05 08 06 08 07 08 08 08
19
Source: Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency – Monthly Bulletin
17
BANKING SECTOR – Satisfactory Top-Line Growth
• As Spread and Net Interest Margin (NIM), we have observed a slow-down in the pace of top-line (Net
Interest Income) growth. It is lightly above 20% YoY, but the growth level was higher in early 2008.
• Although we think the growth pace is adequate at the moment, due to the sudden jump in the interest
rates started late in September 2008 is expected to further put pressure on spread and margins.
6.00%
30.0%
NII Growth
Spread
NIM
5.50%
25.0%
5.00%
20.0%
4.50%
15.0%
4.00%
10.0%
3.50%
5.0%
3.00%
0.0%
08 07 09 07 10 07 11 07 12 07 01 08 02 08 03 08 04 08 05 08 06 08 07 08 08 08
20
Source: Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency – Monthly Bulletin
18
ni
a
Bo
s
an Mo
n
d
H t en
er
e
ze gro
go
vi
na
Se
rb
C ia
ro
R atia
om
an
U ia
kr
ai
Be ne
la
Sl Ma ru
ov ce s
ak do
R nia
ep
ub
lic
Is
ra
e
Tu l
rk
Al ey
ba
H nia
un
ga
R ry
us
si
Po a
la
nd
La
tv
C
ze Mo ia
ch ld
R ova
ep
ub
Bu lic
lg
Li aria
th
ua
n
Es ia
to
ni
a
BANKING SECTOR – Comparison of Profitability
35.0
RoAE
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report – October 2008
21
19
BANKING SECTOR – Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence and Borrowing Possibility
105
37
100
35
95
33
90
31
85
29
80
27
Consumer Confidence Index -left scale
Borrowing Possibility (next 3 months) -right scale
75
09 08
06 08
03 08
12 07
09 07
06 07
03 07
12 06
09 06
06 06
03 06
12 05
09 05
25
Consumer Confidence vs. Inverse TRY/USD
110
0.90
Consumer Confidence Index -left scale
Inverse TRY/USD -right scale
105
0.85
100
• The latest survey is as of September
2008, a lot has changed since then.
• But we belive the consumer confidence
should be knocked-out for the time
being, given the strong relationship
between the exchange rate and the
consumer confidence.
• On top of that the ongoing interest
rates in the market limits the borrowing
possibility.
0.80
95
0.75
90
0.70
85
09 08
06 08
03 08
12 07
09 07
06 07
03 07
12 06
09 06
06 06
03 06
12 05
09 05
06 05
0.60
03 05
75
12 04
0.65
09 04
80
22
Source: The Central Bank of Turkey
20
BANKING SECTOR – Portfolio Preferences
• Foreign investors have more faith in the Turkish Capital Markets
Portfolio Preferences of Citizens, % Share
FX Deposits
TL Deposits
Repo
TL Domestic Borrowing Instruments
FX Borrowing Instruments
Eurobond
Mutual Funds
Participation Accounts
Equity
Pension Funds
2004
25.7
34.9
0.6
19.2
0.9
1.9
8.3
2.0
5.7
0.1
2005
22.1
42.0
0.4
15.5
0.5
1.5
8.5
2.5
6.6
0.4
2006
25.4
42.8
0.6
13.5
0.4
1.4
5.8
2.8
6.6
0.7
2007
22.9
46.1
0.6
12.2
0.3
0.9
5.8
3.3
6.9
1.0
Sep.08
23.1
47.8
0.5
12.2
0.2
0.8
5.1
3.5
5.7
1.2
2004
47.0
38.3
3.5
11.3
2005
58.0
35.0
1.1
5.9
2006
52.4
39.2
0.8
7.6
2007
65.5
29.6
0.3
4.6
Sep.08
58.5
34.0
0.8
6.8
Source: State Planning Organization
Portfolio Preferences of Foreigners, % Share
Equity
T-Bills and Bonds
Eurobond
Deposits
Source: State Planning Organization
23
21
BANKING SECTOR – Outlook
Short-Term Outlook
• Going forward we expect the high interest rate environment to prevail during the rest of 2008.
• Banks are likely to end up the year with around 35% YoY loan growth.
• We expect deposit growth to be around 25% YoY in 2008.
Long-Term Outlook
• Security portfolio build up will gain some pace and the structure of the securities is expected to turn
out to be floating rate rather than fixed rate securities.
• We forecast the loan growth at 16% in 2009 and deposit growth at around 20%.
• Thanks to the postponement of Basel-II, which would be in effect starting from 2009 according to the
previous plans, banks will be able to meet the necessary capital requirements.
• Syndication roll-overs will not be a major problem for Turkish banks in our view.
• We expect the banks providing the four main criteria to outperform the market going forward. These
are:
Sufficient liquidity
Wide funding base
Strong capitalization
Low OPEX
24
22
BANKING SECTOR – ISE Total vs ISE Listed Banks
• There are 17 banks listed on the ISE as of today with total market capitalization of TRY62bn (US$41bn)
• While banks constitute 35% of the total market capitalization of the ISE total, the trading volume of banks is
more significant at slightly over 50% in 2008.
60%
Banks Market Capitalization / ISE Total
51.6%
Trading Volume of Banks / ISE Total
50%
37.8%
40%
33.2%
30.7%
30%
26.9%
26.7%
23.6%
20%
25.4%
10%
21.5%
26.0%
25.4%
38.5%
36.5%
2005
2006
40.2%
35.3%
29.1%
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Istanbul Stock Exchange
2007
2008
25
23
BANKING SECTOR – ISE Banks’ Performance in the last one year
• Banking sector index has fallen by almost 60% compared to a year ago.
• Banks have also underperformed the ISE-100 by 15% in the last one year.
120
1.00
100
0.95
80
0.90
60
0.85
40
0.80
11 08
10 08
09 08
08 08
07 08
06 08
05 08
04 08
0.75
03 08
12 07
11 07
0
02 08
20
01 08
Banking Sector
Index Nominal
Performance
Banking Sector
Index Relative
Performance
26
Source: FinansInvest Research
24
BANKING SECTOR – Trading at their historical lows
• The banks in our coverage are trading very close to their historical low P/E and P/BV multiples.
12-M FW Looking P/E and P/BV Ratios
25.00
2.50
P/E -left scale
P/BV -right scale
20.00
2.00
15.00
1.50
10.00
1.00
5.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: FinansInvest Research Forecasts
27
25