Transcript Document

RETOOLING DATA MANAGEMENT TOWARD
SYSTEMS THINKING
Jim Purcell
1
Cliff Note Overview of Systems Thinking
A discipline called “systems thinking” treats
interrelating activities of physical processes,
informational systems and organizational groups
as integral whole entities. Its guiding principle is
called The Primacy of the Whole. The parts
cannot be understood fully except from a holistic
frame of reference.
 Theorists on the organizational side include Peter
Senge, whose influential 1990 book ‘The Fifth
Discipline’ promotes these ideas.
 Senge (pronounced sen-ghee)

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40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
California
Hawaii
New Mexico
Florida
Alaska
Texas
Arizona
Washington
Wyoming
Utah
Idaho
Oregon
Georgia
District of
Colorado
Nevada
Nation
Virginia
South Carolina
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Maryland
Montana
Tennessee
New Hampshire
Alabama
New Jersey
Kansas
Arkansas
Louisiana
Rhode Island
Minnesota
Connecticut
Nebraska
Maine
Missouri
Delaware
Mississippi
Illinois
South Dakota
Massachusetts
Wisconsin
North Dakota
Vermont
New York
Indiana
Kentucky
Iowa
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Ohio
West Virginia
Projected Population Change
2000-2025
55.0%
50.0%
45.0%
Oklahoma will grow 20% by 2025.
Growth is 18th in the nation.
Do we want this growth to be of
educated citizens?
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
3
Student Pipeline
Oklahoma is better than the national average in the high school graduation
rate of 9th graders; however, OK lags behind the nation in the percent of
students who enter, persist, and graduate from college.
100
90
Of 100 9th Graders, How Many . . .
This
impacts
Brain Gain
Goals
73
68
60
40
44
44
36
27
29
24
23
18
20
13
0
Graduated from
High School
Directly Entered
College
Best Performing State
Enrolled
Sophomore Year
Nation
The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education. US Census Bureau
Graduated Within
150%
Population 25 or
Older With a
Bachelor's
Oklahoma
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Inefficiencies within the education pipeline are particularly
disappointing considering the following:
Intention to attend College and actual College
Attendance among Oklahoma High School Students
5-8th grade Students-- College
Attendance Plans
83
9-12 grade Students-- College
Attendance Plans
94
5-12th grade Parents-- College
Attendance Plans for their children
92
56.3
Direct to College Going Rate
0
20
40
60
80
100
OK ranks 43rd in students going directly from HS to College
5
First Year Cumulative GPA of 2003 High School
Graduates Grades as 2003-04 College Freshmen in
Public Institutions of Higher Education
50
42.3
45
40
Percent
35
30.0
27.7
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0.00 - 1.99
2.00- 2.99
3.00+
Cumulative GPA of First-time Entering Freshmen
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
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R E M E D IAT IO N R AT E S F O R
2 0 0 2 -0 3 O K L A H O M A G R A D U AT E S AS
F AL L 2 0 0 3 F R E S H M E N IN
O K L AH O M A P U B L IC H IG H E R E D U C AT IO N
M AT H
P E R C E N T R E Q U IR IN G
M AT H R E M E D IAT IO N
0 .0 - 9 .9 %
1 0 .0 - 1 9 .9 %
2 0 .0 - 2 9 .9 %
3 0 % a n d a b o ve
S ta te A v e r a g e : 3 0 .4 %
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COMMUNITY COLLEGES -- Three-year Graduation Rate
of Full-time First-time Freshmen
OK Within
Institution 3year Rate
18%
Natl w/in
Institution 3year Rate
10%
32%
20%
30%
40%
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REGIONAL UNIVERSITIES -- Six-year Graduation Rate of
Full-time First-time Freshmen
OK Within
Institution Rate
29%
National within
Institution Rate
44%
20%
30%
40%
9
50%
RESEARCH UNIV.- Six-year Graduation Rate of Full-time
First-time Freshmen
OK Within
Institution Rate
50%
National within
Institution Rate
56%
30%
40%
50%
10
60%
20
Rhode Island
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Iowa
Maryland
Washington
Vermont
New Jersey
Connecticut
Virginia
California
North Carolina
Maine
Michigan
Illinois
New York
Wisconsin
Indiana
Minnesota
Florida
Nation
South Carolina
Utah
Wyoming
Oregon
Ohio
Colorado
Missouri
Arizona
Kansas
Tennessee
Nebraska
Texas
Alabama
Hawaii
Mississippi
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nevada
Georgia
Montana
New Mexico
Kentucky
West Virginia
Oklahoma
Idaho
Arkansas
Louisiana
Alaska
Graduation Rates – Percent of Bachelor’s
Students Graduating within Six Years (%) - 2000
70
65.4
60
OK ranks 46th in graduating
students “on time” from
college.
53.0
50
40
30
22.3
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Projected Change in Employment by
Education and Training, 1998-2008
Education and
Training Category
Percent
Increase
Doctoral Degree
Master’s Degree
Bachelor’s Degree
Associate Degree
Vocational Training
Work Experience
On-Job Training
All Occupations
23
19
24
31
14
12
7
14
Source: Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor
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US Department of Labor
New Hires 2002-2012 by Education requirements
Oklahoma and the Nation Compared
19.0%
Short-term on-the-job training
34.6%
25.7%
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Long-term on-the-job training
Work experience in a related occupation
Postsecondary vocational award
Associate degree
15.0%
11.9%
6.8%
6.5%
6.0%
6.6%
5.6%
5.1%
5.8%
14.1%
12.9%
Bachelor's degree
Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
First professional degree
0.0%
Nat'l
Oklahoma
4.4%
7.3%
4.4%
2.9%
1.1%
1.5%
1.2%
1.5%
20.0%
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40.0%
State Per Capita Personal Income v. Share of Adult Population
with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (2003)
OK03
OK00
$30,000
Per Capita Income
$28,000
$26,000
No state with a low
proportion of
Bachelor’s degrees
has a high per capita
income.
$24,000
No state with a high
proportion of
Bachelor’s degrees
has a low per capita
income.
$22,000
$20,000
$18,000
$16,000
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Population with Bachelor’s Degree or higher
45%
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State Per Capita Personal Income v. Share of Adult
Population with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (2003)
DC
CT
$30,000
NJ
$28,000
MA
MD
Per Capita Income
NH
$26,000
DE
RI
VA
NY
AK
MN
$24,000
IL
NV
MI
WI
OH
PA
WY
$22,000
TN
KY
AL
AR
$18,000
HI
VT
GA
OR
KS
TX
SC MO
ME
IA AZ
NE
NM
NC
ND
SD
OK
MT
UT
IN
$20,000
FL
CA WA
ID
LA
CO
From 2000 to 2003,
Oklahoma increased in
the number of bachelor’s
degrees for Oklahomans
age 25 and older from
20.2 to 21.9 and from
47th to 42rd in the state
rankings.
WV
MS
$16,000
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Population with Bachelor’s Degree or higher
45%
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Progress over time
1996 Baseline
2000 Census
AMC Survey 2001
AMC Survey 2003
20.1%
20.2%
20.4%
21.9%
AMC = American Community Survey is conducted by the Census Bureau
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Interstate Comparison

A map comparing the states can best
explain our progress. Using the Jenks
optimization statistical formula, states can
be organized into ‘natural clusters’ that
minimize the variation within the clusters.
 The following map displays the three natural
groups of states. The good news is that
Oklahoma is now at the top of the bottom
group. With effort, Oklahoma could surpass
Iowa and find itself in the middle group.
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State Population with Bachelor’s Degree or
Higher Age 25 Years and Older, 2003
22.5
34.7
23.7
25.3
24.1
21.9 19.0
21.5
24.5
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1. Progress has been made.
2. Oklahoma has the potential to achieve an
important psychological (and statistical
threshold) in the next few years.
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Talk in terms of Systems Thinking
about:
 Planning -- Institutional Goals
 Assessment
 Accreditation
 Institutional Research
 Data Management/ Web Development
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Reference
The online publication The School
Administrator Web Edition, November
2004, describes applications of
Senge’s Laws to education.
 Senge identified certain patterns that
occur again and again. He calls these
reoccurring patterns:
the laws of systems thinking

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Today's problems come from
yesterday's solutions

Why are educators struggling to reduce
class sizes today?
1900s efficiency experts convinced educators that
increasing class sizes would make their schools
more efficient.
 Large classrooms built upon this assumption.
Dewey Decimal System and Library of Congress
Cataloging systems.
Timeliness versus Accuracy.


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Today's problems come from
yesterday's solutions
HEGIS Codes: Not revised since 1970 –system created
in mid 70’s - Not directly relate to CIP
 Uncollected data points
 Full names
 Hours attempted
 Facilities inventory report
 Imperfect Data –



different institutional interpretations of definitions, not
enough test of reasonability checks
No real deadline- Point of exhaustion
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Today's problems come from
yesterday's solutions

Summer Reading

Week of Welcome discussions with faculty in three small
groups meetings and with the author.

Assessment: Only 25% read it.
Redesign: Added to English Composition class. 80% read it.


Pause to think day

Mid-semester event to celebrate intellectuality.

Assessment: Pause to drink day
Redesign: No more day.

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Today's problems come from
yesterday's solutions

Crack Children Study



None of your kids will fall through the crack
Assessment: Extensive Study – A few cracks
Redesign: Orientation, Freshman Experience, Early
Intervention
Historical Context important
 Vested Interest in Past Solutions
 Undoing the past may be an important
part of the future

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The harder you push, the harder
the system pushes back.

Haven't we all felt the counter-push in our job?
 The harder you try to convince faculty that they
need to improve their teaching methods. . .
 the more they resist and the harder it is to
get them to change.
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Crimes against the humanities
Data that fights back


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5 question course evaluation and they got to pick
the courses to be evaluated.
Many to many links
The one question that they want answered, we do not
have the data for.
Expect opposing viewpoints.
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Behavior grows better before it
grows worse.



Short-term solutions can exacerbate larger issues.
When salaries are frozen, short-term financial
pressure is relieved. However, staff morale begins to
falter.
Deferred maintenance on buildings.
Across the board budget cuts

Hope Scholarship




Declining hours enrolled
Increased course withdrawals
It may be hard to recognize the connection between
the two.
Unintended consequences are a part of the future.
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The easy way out usually
leads back in.

When we stick to what we know best and apply the
familiar solutions, we find comfort.
 “Nip it in the bud”
 More money
 Grade inflation
 Low admission standard to maximize revenue
 Keeping remediation because it is a revenue
generator.
 Croaker Sack
 A little difficulty now saves a lot of difficulty later.
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The cure can be worse than
the disease.
“The familiar solution is sometimes not just
ineffective, but also dangerous.”
 Reducing summer salary.
 ADA web regulations.
 Eliminating educational programs to balance the
budget masks the need for more money and can
trigger a long-term dismantling process.
 Program elimination at the University of Alabama.
 Change must be based upon sound evaluation.
 Understanding side affects is important.

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Faster is slower.

“Natural systems have an optimal rate of
growth.”

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It is usually much slower than we would like.
System conversion– Oracle, PeopleSoft, SCT
Policy changes are developed in an hour, but
go through campus governance for years.
Hiring a consultant often necessary.
It takes time to build consensus.
People need time to emote, contemplate and
acquiesce.
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Cause and effect are not closely related
in time and space.
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Rising tuition may lead to fewer degrees. People may
not see the connection for 6 or more years.
Amount of student loans may impact future quality of
life.
Dry campuses may move the problem of underage
drinking off campus.
Rising cost of litigations may be a factor in dry campus
policies rather than the desire to protect the student.
A college president hated his college dorm experience
and thus never supported residence halls.
The past impacts the future.
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Small change can produce big results, but the areas of
highest leverage are often the least obvious.

Small, well-focused actions can produce solid
improvements, but only if done in the right place.
This is called leverage.
 Kitchen Cabinet - impacts attitudes of input
 New IR /Assessment emphasis
 Perception of presiential avialaibiltiy
 In the absence of comm rumors fly.
 Library location, Library access, hours, etc.
 Pinpoint accuracy in change is better than the
shotgun approach.
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You can have your cake and eat it too,
but not all at once.

Sometimes dilemmas, from a systems point
of view, are not dilemmas at all.
 Once you change from a "snapshot" to a
"process" mode of thinking, they appear
differently.
 Instructional Computer technology

It is a matter of time and small steps.
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‘MERLIN MODIFIED’
BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP MATRIX
5
Problem Child
Mission
Critical
0-5
•Gov/Soc
•English
•Math
STAR
•Biology
•Art
•Chem.
•His/Geo
•Pyschology
•Mus/Theatre
•Econ/Fin
•Info/Sys
•Mus Therapy
Dawg
Cash Cow
•Marketing
•Spec. Ed/Admin.
•Mid Gr Ed
•Early Ch Ed
•Management
•Fam. Health
0
•Foreign Lang.
•HPER
•Adult Health
•Healthcare Sys
•Foundations Ed
•Accounting
1
Financial Viability
(Ratio of Expenses to Revenues)
2
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Dividing an elephant in half does not
produce two small elephants.
Systems are alive, and their character
depends upon the whole. To
understand difficult problems or plot
strategy, you will have to see the
whole system that creates the issues.
 Department split over ideology neither alone would survive
 Simon and Garfunkel

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Half of the harm that is done in this
world is due to people who want to
feel important. They don't mean to do
harm. But the harm does not interest
them.--T.S. Eliot
 Great bodies of people are never
responsible for what they do.
 --Virginia Woolf

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