Transcript Slide 1
Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Resources Dave Peterson Forest Service – PNW Research Station Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab UW College of Forest Resources Why study forests? Forests are the primary source of productivity and carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere. Forest ecosystems are managed for a range of ecological benefits and economic outputs. Climate is an important top-down control of ecological disturbance. Forests interact with hydrology to affect water supply and other resources. Research questions – climatic variability and change How do species distribution and abundance respond across ecosystems? How will the growth of dominant tree species respond at various spatial and temporal scales? How will ecological disturbance, especially fire, respond in different ecosystems? How do forest productivity and management affect water supply and quality? Overall strategy: Multi-scale analysis in mountain ecosystems http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme/climet Spatial scale: local / watershed / mtn. range / region Temporal scale: paleo contemporary modeling Highlights of past research PDO affects growth and productivity of forests at the regional scale Climatic variability and PDO affect fine-scale patterns of forest growth Drought and PDO affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire in eastern Washington Specific synoptic climatology affects forest fire patterns in the Pacific Northwest Highlights continued… Fire occurrence and fire effects on vegetation in the Cascades over past 10,000 years Streamflow and drought reconstructions for the Columbia River since 1850 Produced most accurate reconstruction of PDO based on tree-ring and coral chronologies Future research – guiding questions 1. How will climatic variability and change affect disturbance regimes, especially fire? 2. How are changing climate and disturbance regimes likely to affect the composition, structure, and productivity of vegetation? 3. Which mountain resources and ecosystems are likely to be most sensitive to future climatic change, and what are possible management responses? The Western Mountain Initiative A network of mountain protected areas for global change research http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme/wmi A collaboration between USGS, US Forest Service, and universities 2004 – 2008 WMI scientific approach Data synthesis and integration; limited collection of new data Modeling and interdisciplinary efforts Focused workshops and synthesis publications Annual workshop for managers Common-language publications for managers and general public Integrated activities in the UW Climate Impacts Group Paleoecological studies Forest growth and climatic variability Fire and climatic variability Forest hydrology Teaching and mentoring THANK YOU! David L. Peterson [email protected] 206.732.7812 http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera