Transcript Superlink

Sustainable Urbanism:
Funding major rail infrastructure
Michael Schabas
March 2008
London – a product of evolution not design
World’s most extensive radial rail network
Limited road network; parking restraint in centre
Low –medium density but mostly clustered
Very strong centre drawing regional workforce
High PT mode share for radial commuting to central
London, many routes actually profitable
Medium PT share for local journeys, mostly bus
Low PT share for everything else, esp. orbital journeys
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The Problem
1 million more new homes outside M25 by 2018?
Many 2-worker households
So although half may work locally, half will commute
Will they commute radially or orbitally?
Radial lines already full in peak hours
Underground cannot distribute more passengers from
existing rail terminals
Nobody has found a way for PT to serve orbital journeys
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Public Transport Competitiveness
Public Transport Competitiveness
From
To
Central
London
Central
London
0.8
Inner
London
1.2
Outer
London
0.9
Beyond
M25
?
Strong PT use
Some PT
Inner
London
4.1
Outer
London
1.6
?
8.6
?
Low PT use
Beyond
M25
Million of trips per day
Source: TfL, Lnodon Travel Report 2007
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The Solutions
1. encourage radial commuting – because 90% +
of this will go by rail – this requires more
capacity into central London
2. find ways for PT (rail?) to serve orbital, or
“quasi-orbital” journeys (e.g. Watford –
Cambridge)
3. encourage PT bike and foot for access to rail
stations
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Encouraging rail commuting
Thameslink will carry 20,000 more commuters
north
CTRL will carry another 10,000 from Kent
Thameslink and CTRL will serve some “quasiorbital journeys – e.g. Ashford – Cambridge 80
minutes with one change
Part of the solution, but nowhere near enough
Is Crossrail the answer?
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What is Crossrail?
 Conceived 1945 - London has changed a bit since then
(commuting across the Green Belt, airports, M25, Docklands,)
 Revived in 1989, then 1999 but not re-thought
 Branches to Heathrow and Canary Wharf tacked on in 2001
 Purely a “metro scheme” - regional schemes rejected to match
“The Mayor’s Transport Strategy”
 “Sold” as a new kind of railway, but isn’t it just another tube line?
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Crossrail - Current Scheme
Trains per hour
24 trains per hour across central
London but 14 trains turn back empty
at Paddington. Is there nowhere to go
in the West?
peak/midday
No capacity
increase from
Stansted - yet
fastest growing rail
market in Europe
Why not KX/Euston /St
Pancras instead of TCR?
Shenfield branch - Service
and community disruption;
longer journeys. Adds no
real capacity. +£1,400
million funding gap.
Split services as Crossrail
can only take 12 of 18
existing Shenfield trains.
Assumed capacity at
Liverpool St for more
Stansted trains not really
feasible
12/6
Maidenhead
Slough
Shenfield
Stratford
6/4
Haye Ealing
s
6 trains per hour to
Maidenhead,
maybe Reading
eventually.
HEATHROW
Custom House
4/4
4 trains per hour Canary to
Heathrow, slow stopping
service. Not to T5. Not from
Shenfield. No interchange with
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Airtrack
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Canary Wharf
on branch so
only gets half
of trains
24/1
0
12/4
Canary
Wharf Abbey Wood
Ebbsfleet
Abbey Wood branch - supposedly serves
Crossrail
Routesbut adds little new
Thames
Gateway,
Congestion
Reliefwith 2 DLR branches,
capacity.
Competes
JLE, CTRL,
and North
KentASHFORD
line.
Maybe
Not all railways
or stations
are shown
Ebbsfleet someday?
11 March 2008 PAGE 8
Little effective capacity to London
P er s o n s en t er in g c en t r a l Lo n d o n in A M P ea k
Crossrail/Superlink
1400
National Rail inluding
transfers to Underground
Underground and DLR
enhancements
Underground and DLR
only
Bus
1200
thousands
1000
800
Coach/Minibus
600
Pedal Cycle
Motorcycle
400
Taxi
200
Car
0
2002
2016 Crossrail
Shenfield corridor mature
with limited growth potential
Maidenhead has growth
potential, but from low base
(CLRL’s figures)
Crossrail will only
add 2.3% to effective
London commuting
capacity
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A financial millstone
2,500
Subsidies
2,000
Passenger
Revenues
1,500
1,000
Crossrail
incremental
2020
(500)
All Southeast
train operat ors
2004
-
London Buses
2004
500
London
Underground
2004
Crossrail will be a
financial millstone on the
neck of London
ratepayers
Co m p ar at iv e A n n u al Rev en u es an d Su b s id ies
£ millions (2004)
Passengers pay two-thirds of
total costs on bus
underground, and London
rail
Passengers will pay less than
one-third of incremental
Crossrail costs (CLRL
figures)
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11 March 2008 PAGE 10
Crossrail – funding now committed?
+
=
=
£16 bn capital cost - £1.7 bn inflation during construction
£14.3 bn cash cost
£5.6 bn cash from central government
£0.5 bn City of London Corporation and BAA
£0.5 bn?? Canary Wharf, Woolwich developers
£4.0 bn net operating revenues
£2.0 bn additional business rate
£3.7 bn London ratepayer (plus any overruns)
Crossrail only serves a narrow cross-London
corridor and is not worth £16 billion
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"a classic case of what happens when the
planning of upgrades of railway lines and
improvements are not thought through
properly"
Transport Secretary Alastair Darling
speaking about the West Coast Main Line,
responding to a question from Dr Phyllis
Starkey MP 24 May 2005
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Superlink Approach
 Systematic analysis of options across the London Region
 Link regional centres to central London - support the
planning agenda and generate all-day traffic
 Build new tracks across London to connect into existing lines
where they have capacity for growth - and attract 100,000
extra commuters onto rail
 Run additional services to growth areas - earn revenue
 Divert some services onto Superlink, for faster journeys and
better distribution – and release capacity for “Metro” services
on lines within Greater London
How can we make better use of the
expensive cross-London tunnel???
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11 March 2008 PAGE 13
Is this London? (7 million people)
From the Mayor’s
“London Plan”
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The Solution
Extend Crossrail into Essex
Support growth where it can best happen
Build new tracks with capacity for another
40,000+ commuters
Use Crossrail tunnels as central distribution
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The Solution
Heathrow
There is a big gap in London’s radial railways
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The Solution
To Ipswich
To Cambridge
Stansted
Sawbridgewor
th
Shenfield
Southend
Heathrow
New railway to Shenfield Jct and Sawbridgeworth, connects to
three routes beyond M25 with capacity for growth
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11 March 2008 PAGE 18
How?
Deep bore tunnel from Crossrail at Stratford or
Canary Wharf to Fairlop Waters
Then surface lines to Sawbridgworth and Shenfield
Junction
Cost £3 billion
Surface line in “open country”; mostly greenbelt
Less than 50 homes affected; no identified areas of
special interest (e.g. AONBs, SSSIs,)
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What benefit?
Capacity for 40 more fast peak trains from Essex
into London (40,000 commuters)
Through trains to West End, Heathrow and
Reading, and potentially Basingstoke and Milton
Keynes (if other Superlink branches built)
Capacity released on existing lines through Ilford
and Tottenham Hale for more stopping services
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Superlink Concept
NORTHAMPTON
CAMBRIDGE
Shelford
Whittlesford
Gt Chesterford
Audley End
Newport
Elsenham
Stansted Mountfichet
2/2
MILTON
KEYNES
Leighton Buzzard
Tring
Hemel Hempstead
READING
Manningtree
Colchester
4/4
10/8
6/4
Barking
8/6
Chelmsford
Ingatestone
Wickford
Billericay
Shenfield
Hockley
Prittlewell
Rayleigh
Rochford
SOUTHEND
4/2
Hayes Ealing
4/4
2/2
Bracknell
HEATHROW
Martins Heron
Canary Wharf
Brookwood
Farnborough
6/4
Fleet
Winchfield
Hook
10/8
24/18
Ascot
2/2
Woking
Worplesdon
Superlink Routes
Other Railways
Congestion relief
BASINGSTOKE
GUILDFORD
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2/2
Marks Tey
Kelvedon
Witham
Hatfield Peverel
6/4
Harlow S
Harrow
IPSWICH
STANSTED
Bishops
Stortford
Sawbridgeworth
8/4
Maidenhead
Slough
Earley
Winnersh Triangle
Winnersh
4/4
Not all railways or stations
are shown
11 March 2008 PAGE 21
Superlink Network
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Superlink delivers the Regional Agenda
Superlink And CTRL Routes Overlaid On Policy Areas
NORTHAMPTON
CAMBRIDGE
Milton Keynes and
South Midlands
London, Stansted
Cambridge Corridor
MILTON
KEYNES
STANSTED
SOUTHEND
READING
Western Wedge
TILBURY
Thames Gateway
HEATHROW
BASINGSTOKE
GUILDFORD
Superlink
CTRL Domestic routes
Thameslink
Source: National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty by
Countryside Agency, Green Belts from Local Plans
Ashford
Urban areas 1991
Green Belt
AONB
Growth Study Areas
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Real additional capacity
M O R E C A P A C IT Y
( t h o u s a n d s o f a d d it io n a l p e a k d a ily
com m u t ers)
S u p e rlin k
C ro s s ra il
0
50
100
150
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11 March 2008 PAGE 24
Superlink is fundable
 Each branch costs £500m to £2 billion to build
 Incremental revenue entirely offsets
incremental costs
 So adding branches progressively reduces
funding requirement of total scheme
 Each can be promoted as a separate addition
to the core Crossrail scheme
 Potential to build new communities along the
route, or on branches connecting into it
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Each branch subject to economic analysis
All figures are in real
Project 60 year NPV
Crossrail
Superlink
Phase 1 Phase 2
12 tph
20 tph
2002 £ million
Public sector evaluation (Incremental to existing network)
Capital Cost
7,475
7,500
8,235
Operating Cost
2,223
2,066
2,444
Total Cost
9,698
9,566
10,679
Revenues
3,239
4,725
6,309
Design Year 2020
Crossrail
Superlink
Phase Phase Phase
Phase 3
1 12
2 20
3 24
24 tph
tph
tph
tph
9,595
3,582
13,177
9,965
598
106
704
150
600
99
699
218
659
117
775
291
768
171
938
460
Funding Gap or Subsidy 6,459
4,841
4,370
3,212
555
480
484
478
Other transport benefits
Net benefits
Net Benefits/Subsidy Ratio
Benefit/Cost Ratio
16,196
9,737
(1.51)
23,624
18,783
(3.88)
31,546
27,176
(6.22)
49,825
46,612
(14.51)
748
1,302
1,091
1,571
1,456
1,940
2,300
2,778
2.0
3.0
3.5
4.5
104
63
598
253
512
85
67
600
462
290
146
69
659
676
198
251
77
768
1,062
34
Private sector evaluation (freestanding business)
Train operating cost (franchise) 1,449
1,184
Incremental Fixed operating cost 878
934
Capital Charge
7,475
7,500
Revenues
3,450
6,292
"Franchise" Subsidy (premium)6,352
3,326
2,032
962
8,235
9,211
2,018
3,501
1,073
9,595
14,471
(302)
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New Journey Opportunities
 Fast no-interchange and same-platform journeys
 New cross-London and “quasi-orbital” journey
opportunities
Station pair
Current Journey time
SUPERLINK Journey Time
Saving
Woking - Stansted
120 minutes with 3 changes
80 minutes with 1 change
40 minutes, 2 changes
Chelmsford – Tottenham Court Road
50 minutes with 1 change
30 minutes direct
20 minutes, 1 change
Billericay – Bond Street
50 minutes with 1 change
30 minutes, direct
20 minutes, 1 change
Slough - Rainham
120 minutes with 2 changes
80 minutes direct
40 minutes, 2 changes
Billericay - Woking
90 minutes with 2 changes
70 minutes, direct
20 minutes, 2 changes
Milton Keynes - Cambridge
120 minutes with 2 changes
100 minutes
20 minutes, 2 changes
Basingstoke - Heathrow
80 minutes (bus connection)
35 minutes
45 minutes, no bus!
Salisbury - Milton Keynes
180 minutes with 2 changes
150 minutes, 1 change
30 minutes, 1 change
Guildford - Paddington
60 minutes with 1 change
45 minutes
15 minutes
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11 March 2008 PAGE 27
CLRL Critique of Crossrail
Two pages in the Crossrail Environmental Statement
 Not their brief (told to design a “metro” scheme, to
relieve central London congestion)
 Too expensive; too complicated
 Environmental problems building new railways in
the greenbelt
 Contrary to “government policy” as it would
encourage long distance commuting
See our full response to the Crossrail ES at
www.Superlink.org.uk
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11 March 2008 PAGE 28
What now?
 Alert stakeholders - winners (and losers?)
 Promote regional branches incrementally using
Transport & Works Orders
 Seek opportunities for complementary
development
We want to see it happen!
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11 March 2008 PAGE 29
The Superlink Network
NORTHAMPTON
Bedford
MILTON
KEYNES
Luton
CAMBRIDGE
Peterborough
Shelford
Whittlesford
Gt Chesterford
Audley End
Newport
Elsenham
Stansted Mountfichet
Stevenage
Leighton Buzzard
Tring
Manningtree
Colchester
Bishops
Stortford
Sawbridgeworth
Marks Tey
Kelvedon
Witham
Hatfield Peverel
Harlow S
Hemel Hempstead
READING
Maidenhead
Slough
Earley
Winnersh Triangle
Winnersh
IPSWICH
STANSTED
Chelmsford
Ingatestone
Wickford
Billericay
Shenfield
Hockley
Rayleigh
Rochford
Barking
Harrow
Prittlewell
SOUTHEND
Hayes Ealing
Bracknell
Martins Heron
HEATHROW
Canary Wharf
Ascot
Brookwood
Farnborough
Fleet
Winchfield
Hook
Superlink Routes
Woking
Worplesdon
BASINGSTOKE
GUILDFORD
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Croydon
M25
Gatwick
Other Railways
Congestion relief
Not all railways or stations
are shown
ASHFORD
11 March 2008 PAGE 30