Transcript Diapositiva 1

Decision tree problem
Sarah King, president of King Electronics, Inc., has two design options for
her new line of high-resolution cathode-ray tubes (CRTs) for computeraided design workstations. The life cycle sales forecast for the CRT is
100.000 units.
–Design option A has a 0.90 probability of yielding 59 good CRTs
per 100 and a .10 probability of yielding 64 food CRTs per 100. This
design will cost $1.000.000.
–Design option B has 0.80 probability of yieldin 64 good units per
100 and a 0.20 probability of yielding 59 good units per 100. This
design will cost $1.350.000.
•Good or bad, each CRT will cost $75. Each good CRT will sell for $150.
Bad CRTs are destroyed and have no salvage value. Because units break
up when thrown in the trash, there is little disposal cost. Therefore, we
ignore any disposal costs in this problem.
425.000$
0.9
59%
A
0.1
600.000$
0.8
64%
0$
Do nothing
Total wins
Production costs
CAD costs
Net result
9.600.000$ Total wins
- 7.500.000$ Production costs
- 1.000.000$ CAD costs
1.000.000$ Net result
64%
9.600.000$
- 7.500.000$
- 1.350.000$
750.000$
Total wins
Production costs
CAD costs
Net result
59%
8.850.000$
- 7.500.000$
- 1.350.000$
0$
Total wins
Production costs
CAD costs
Net result
B
0.2
8.850.000$
- 7.500.000$
- 1.000.000$
350.000$
0$