Transcript No Slide Title

Chapter 10
Bond Prices
and Yields
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
10.1 Bond Characteristics
10-2
U.S. Credit Market Instruments O/S 2008 Q3
U.S. Equity Market (Common)
$19,648 Billion
U.S. Credit Market Debt
$51,796
Debt by Selected Major Borrowers (Not Exhaustive
List):
U.S. Government Securities
(Includes Agency & GSE) $13,850 (27%)
%s are percent of Total U.S. Credit Market Debt, source is Federal Reserve
Flow of Funds
10-3
U.S. Credit Market Instruments O/S 2008 Q3
By Selected Major Borrowers (Not Exhaustive List)
$11,262 Billion
Corporate & Foreign Bonds
(22%)
Municipal Bonds
G.O., Revenue, Notes
Mortgages
$2,669 Billion
(5%)
$14,720 Billion
(28%)
10-4
Bond Characteristics
• Face or par value
• Coupon rate
– Zero coupon bond
• Compounding and payments
– Accrued Interest
• Indenture
10-5
Treasury Notes and Bonds
• T Note maturities range up to 10 years
• T bond maturities range from 10 to 30 years
• Bid and ask price
– Quoted in dollars and 32nds as a percent of par
– Typical par = $1,000
• Accrued interest
– Quoted price does not include interest accrued
10-6
Figure 10.1 Prices and Yields
of U.S. Treasuries
10-7
Corporate Bonds & Debt
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Most bonds are traded over the counter
Par = $1,000
Registered versus Bearer bonds
Call provisions
Convertible provision
Put provision (putable bonds)
Floating rate bonds
Preferred Stock
10-8
Figure 10.2 Listing of
Corporate Bonds
10-9
Other Domestic Issuers
•
•
•
•
•
•
Federal Home Loan Bank Board
Farm Credit Agencies
Ginnie Mae
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
Municipalities
10-10
International Bonds
• Foreign bonds
– Issued by a borrower from a country other than the
one in which the bond is sold.
– Bonds are denominated in the currency of the country
in which it is sold.
• Yankee bonds, Samurai bonds, Bulldog bonds
• Eurobonds
– Bonds issued in the currency of one country but sold
in other national markets.
• Eurodollar bonds, Euroyen bonds
10-11
Innovations in the Bond Market
• Inverse floaters
– Coupon rate falls when interest rates rise & vice versa
• Asset-backed bonds
– Income from specified assets is used to service the
bond
• Pay-in-kind bonds
– Bond issuer may choose to pay interest by giving the
investor a bond rather than cash
10-12
Innovations in the Bond Market
• Catastrophe bonds
– In the event of a specified ‘disaster’ the bond
issuer’s required payments are reduced or
eliminated.
• Indexed bonds
– Payments are tied to a price index or the price
of a commodity.
• TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) With
TIPS the par value of the bond increases with the
Consumer Price Index.
10-13
Hypothetical Principal and Interest
Payments on a TIPS
10-14
10.2 BOND PRICING
10-15
Bond Prices & Yields
a) Bond Price for a corporate bond:
C = Coupon = 10%, interest rate = ytm = r = 12%, Maturity =
N or T = 10 years, P = price, Par = $1,000
What is the bond’s price using semiannual compounding?
 2N ½$C 
Par
P  

T
2N
(1

½r)
(1

½r)
T

1


 20 $50  $1,000
P  

T
20
(1
.
06
)
(1

.
06
)
 T1

P  $573.50 
64.8%
$311.80  $885.30
35.2%
10-16
Bond Pricing Between
Coupon Dates
• The flat price or quoted price assumes the
bond is purchased on a coupon payment
date.
• If the bond buyer purchases a bond
between payment dates the buyer’s
invoice price = flat price + accrued interest.
10-17
Bond Pricing Between
Coupon Dates
AccruedInterest 
Annual Coupon$ Days since last coupon payment

2
Days betw eencoupon payments
• A bond has a flat price of $925.30 and an annual coupon
of $42.50. 160 days have passed since the last coupon
payment and there are 182 days separating the coupon
payments. What is the bond’s invoice price?
Accrued Interest 
$42.50 160

 $18.68
2
182
Invoice price  Flat Price  AccruedInterest
Invoice price  $925.30  $18.68  $943.98
10-18
10.3 BOND YIELDS
10-19
Bond Prices and Yields
• Prices and Yields (required rates of return)
have an inverse relationship
• When yields get very high the value of the
bond will be very low
• When yields approach zero, the value of
the bond approaches the sum of the cash
flows
10-20
Promised Yield to Maturity
(YTM)
• YTM is the discount rate that makes the present value of
a bond’s payments equal to its price
• Find the YTM for a 8% coupon, 30-year bond selling at
$1,276.76
 2N ½$C 
Par
P  

T
2N
(1

½r)
(1

½r)
T

1


 60 $40  $1,000
$1,276.76  

T
60
 T1 (1 ½r)  (1 ½r)
r  3%
• Assumption of this calculation?
10-21
Figure 10.3 The Inverse Relationship
Between Bond Prices and Yields
10-22
Alternative Measures of Yield
• Current Yield
– Annual dollar coupon divided by the price
• Yield to Call
– Call price replaces par
– Call date replaces maturity
• Holding Period Yield
– Considers actual reinvestment rate on coupons
– Considers any change in price if the bond is sold prior
to maturity
10-23
Yield to Call Illustrated
10-24
Figure 10.4 Bond Prices:
Callable and Straight Debt
10-25
Figure 10.5 Growth of $1000
invested in a 2 year bond
10-26
Example 10.5 Growth of $1000
invested in a 2 year bond
10-27
10.4 BOND PRICES OVER
TIME
10-28
Premium and Discount Bonds
• Premium Bond
– Coupon rate exceeds yield to maturity
– Bond price will decline to par over its maturity
• Discount Bond
– Yield to maturity exceeds coupon rate
– Bond price will increase to par over its maturity
• Can you explain why these price change will occur?
10-29
Figure 10.6 Premium and
Discount Bonds over Time
10-30
Figure 10.7 The Price of a
Zero Coupon Bond over Time
How does one earn a rate of return on a zero
coupon bond?
Par
P
(1 r)N
What are
STRIPS?
How is the price
appreciation
taxed?
10-31
10.5 DEFAULT RISK AND
BOND PRICING
10-32
Default Risk and Ratings
• Main Ratings Companies
– Moody’s Investor Service
– Standard & Poor’s
– Fitch
• Main Rating Categories
– Investment grade
– Speculative grade (junk bonds)
10-33
Figure 10.8 Definitions of Bond Rating Classes
10-34
Factors Used by Rating
Companies
• Coverage ratios
– TIE and Fixed Charges Coverage ratio
• Leverag e ratios
– Debt to equity or Debt to assets
• Liquidity ratios
– Current and quick ratio
• Profitability ratios
– Return on assets and return on equity
• Cash flow to debt
– Cash flow to debt
10-35
Financial Ratios and Default Risk
10-36
Protection Against Default
• Sinking funds
– Issuer may repurchase a given fraction of the
outstanding bonds each year, or
– Issuer may either repurchase at the lower of open
market price or at a pre-specified price, usually par;
bonds are chosen randomly
• Serial bonds
– Staggered maturity dates
• Subordination of future debt
– Senior debt holders must be paid in full before junior
debt holders.
10-37
Protection Against Default
• Dividend restrictions
– Limit on liquidating dividends
• Collateral
– A specific asset pledged against possible default on a
bond.
– What is a bond called that has no specific collateral?
10-38
Figure 10.9 Callable Bond
Issued by Mobil
10-39
Example 10.10 YTM and
Default
10-40
Figure 10.10 Yields Spreads on 10 year
bonds
10-41
Credit Default Swaps
A credit default swap (CDS) is an insurance policy on the
default risk of a bond or loan.
•The seller of the swap collects an annual premium (and
sometimes an upfront fee) from the swap buyer.
•The buyer of the swap collects nothing unless the bond
issuer or loan borrower defaults, in which case the seller of
the swap essentially pays the drop in value from par to the
swap buyer.
10-42
Credit Default Swaps
• CDSs can be used to speculate on financial health of
firms.
– Swap buyer need not hold the underlying bond or
loan.
– At their peak there were reportedly $63 trillion worth
of CDS; US GDP is about $14 trillion.
– What is the implication of the size of this market if the
economy experiences greater than expected defaults?
– Did this contribute to the Financial Crisis of 2008?
10-43
Credit Default Swaps
10-44
Credit Default Swaps
• New regulations on CDS will be
implemented
– CDS contracts will be required to be traded on
an exchange with collateral requirements to
limit risk.
– Exchange trading will also increase
transparency of positions of institutions.
10-45
10.6 THE YIELD CURVE
10-46
Term Structure of Interest Rates
• Relationship between yields to maturity
and maturity
• Yield curve: a graph of the yields on
bonds relative to the number of years to
maturity
– Have to be similar risk or other factors would
be influencing yields
10-47
Figure 10.12 Treasury Yield
Curves
10-48
Theories of the Term Structure
• Expectations
– Long term rates are a function of expected future
short term rates
– Upward slope means that the market is expecting
higher future short term rates
– Downward slope means that the market is expecting
lower future short term rates
• Liquidity Preference
– Upward bias over expectations
– The observed long-term rate includes a risk premium
10-49
Figure 10.13 Returns to Two
2-year Investment Strategies
10-50
Forward Rates Implied
in the Yield Curve
(1 yn)
(1.12)
2
n
 (1
yn-1) (1 f n)
n-1
1
 (1.11)
(1.1301)
For example, using 1-yr and 2-yr rates
Longer term rate, yn = 12%
Shorter term rate, yn-1 = 11%
Forward rate, a one-year rate in one year =
13.01%
10-51
Figure 10.14 Illustrative Yield
Curves
10-52
Figure 10.15 Term Spread
10-53