Transcript Slide 1

Consumer Behaviour
in UK Price Indices
Joe Winton, Robert O’Neill & Duncan Elliott
Office For National Statistics
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Overview
• UK Prices Indices
• The formula effect and current
arguments
• Estimating Economic Parameters
• Simulating Behaviour
• Clothing
• A simpler way forward?
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UK Consumer Price Indices
• Retail Prices Index (RPI)
• Consumer Prices Index (CPI)
Two different measures
• Measure different things
• Used for the same things
• Perceived as the same thing
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UK Consumer Price Indices
Why is this a Problem?
• In 2003 the Government changed
inflation target to the CPI
• In 2010 the Government announced
that benefits and pensions should be
linked to the CPI
This is a big deal!
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UK Consumer Price Indices
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The Formula Effect….
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Differences:
• Coverage
• Weights
• The Formula Effect...
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Differences: The Formula Effect
•
Changes in Price are combined using expenditure
share as weights.
•
We don’t have expenditure data at the lowest level as
collecting it is costly and complicated
For Example:
We know the proportion of expenditure on Fizzy Drinks compared
to Fruit Juice, but we don’t know how that expenditure is split
between Coke, Pepsi and (many, many) other Fizzy Drinks.
•
At this level (sometimes referred to as the
“Elementary Aggregate”) prices are combined
without weights.
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Differences: The Formula Effect
• Many ways to combine prices (or price
movements)
• CPI uses mainly a geometric average
of price changes
• RPI uses mainly an arithmetic average
of price changes
• Both use the change in the arithmetic
mean of prices.
Often forgotten
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UK Consumer Price Indices
• ONS estimates the contribution to the difference
between RPI and CPI of various components
each month.
• The Formula Effect is growing
• Many different reasons for choosing different
formulae
• This leads to the dreaded question...
Which one is right?
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Consumer Behaviour
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Consumer Behaviour
• One argument for choosing the Geometric mean
over the Arithmetic mean comes down to
assumptions about consumer behaviour.
• More importantly, how willing are consumers to
substitute goods in response to price change.
• We will call the measure of this willingness σ
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Theoretical Background
•
UK CPI uses a geometric mean to combine
price relatives for elementary aggregates
(EAs) where substitution behaviour is
thought to occur.
•
No low level substitution assumptions in the
RPI
•
Annual basket update and re-basing help to
account for substitution at a higher level.
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Theoretical Background
Under certain Assumptions:
•
An arithmetic Mean formulae (Carli) assume
no substitution between goods (σ= 0)
•
A geometric Mean formula (Jevons) assumes
substitution between goods to maintain
constant expenditure (σ= 1)
If we could estimate σ, then a Generalised mean
index formula could be calculated
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Estimating σ?
• Emergence of high frequency data.
• σ can be estimated and a judgement can
be made between GM and AM.
...Under certain assumptions.
• Do consumers behave rationally?
• Can you simplify Consumer Behaviour?
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Estimating σ – an empirical study
• Winton, O’Neill & Elliott have developed the
theory of Balk and Diewert to estimate the
Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) σ.
• Using consumer panel data on alcohol, σ has
been estimated for a number of categories
• Compare Jevons and Carli to “Ideal Indices”
• Does the estimate of σ help with the choice?
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Estimating σ – some of the results
Selected results from empirical study.
Sub-Class
Lager (4 Cans)
Lager (12 Cans)
Brandy
Vodka
Fortified Wine
Red Wine (European)
Red Wine (New World)
Econometric Approach
Estimate of σ
1.0
3.7
0.5
5.7
0.6
1.0
3.8
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Estimating σ – some of the results
• The estimate of sigma was not a reliable
indicator of whether to choose Carli or Jevons
• When combined with low level expenditure it is
very useful but that doesn’t help us here!!
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Conclusions
• σ can be estimated well and the estimates have
some meaning
• Estimates of σ have no use without expenditure
weights
• Without weights, the Economic Arguments on
index numbers are unsupported
• Substitution behaviour is not a valid argument
for choosing an EA formula
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“Under Certain Assumptions”
• Perfect Classroom Example....
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Simulating Consumer
Behaviour
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Simulating Consumer Behaviour
• Details in Winton, O’Neill, Elliott (2012)
• Set up the Classroom Example
• Introduce small moves away from the perfect
case to reflect a small bit of ‘reality’
• We could show any result that we wanted with
only very small changes.
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Simulating Consumer Behaviour
• Ours was a very simple simulation
• The world is far more complex.
• Even if you could capture the ‘Real World’ you
would have to constantly update the model to
account for changing tastes.
• The model can’t deal with this...
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Clothing
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Clothing
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Clothing
• Differences in Clothing growing too
• Formula effect big here
• How do consumers behave when buying
clothes?
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Clothing
• “Clothing Prices Never Rise”
Garment 1
Price
Garment 2
Garment 3
Time
• How can consumers substitute in response to
price rises?
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Clothing
• Homogeneous Strata – Adding up Women’s
Dresses.
• May want to look at substitution to determine
fashion goods – negative Elasticity?
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Other Arguments?
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The Axiomatic Approach to Index Numbers
• Set of Rules or Tests to determine whether an
index is appropriate
• So many combinations of tests
• Picking a set of tests will give you the answer
you want
• No real theory behind the tests just ‘desirable
properties’
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Lots of Theoretical
Background
Economic Approach
No Practical Application
No Theory
Axiomatic Approach
Lots of Practical
Application
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Other Approaches to Index Numbers
The Sampling Approach to Index Numbers
• We have a target index
• We have a sampling Scheme
• What is the best estimator of our target?
The Stochastic Approach to Index Numbers
• Each price relative as an estimate of a common
price change
• The expected value of the common price change
can be derived by the appropriate averaging of a
random sample of price changes.
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Conclusions
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Conclusions
• Making a choice is very difficult.
• In a perfect world the formula effect will be
minimal
• In reality some things are difficult to measure –
this is OK.
• There is NO right answer
• There are very strong opinions beliefs!
• Taking different approaches leads to different
conclusions – all have their flaws
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Conclusions
Key things to do:
• Improve areas where difference is large
• Be clear and decisive about your choice and
your reasons for that choice
There will always be criticism but that is because
there is no agreement. As long as you are clear in
your arguments and what is important to you, you
can defend your position.
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Conclusions
Using Jevons at EA level is perfectly acceptable
depending on your arguments but...
“use Jevons where substitution is thought to occur”
is a lazy argument!
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Further Work
Winton, O’Neill, Elliott – Elementary
Aggregate Indices and Lower Level
Substitution Bias 2012 can be found as a
supporting paper for the April 2012 CPAC meeting
– an update will follow before the end of the year.
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Thank you for listening
Any Questions?
For more information please contact:
[email protected]
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