Transcript Slide 1

Chamber of Commerce
2008 Annual Planning Retreat
Columbia, Missouri
Bill Elder, Director
Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA)
University of Missouri
Overview of demographic and
economic trends in Boone County
with a little context
for details Google
OSEDA
W
h
`
Total Population
Percent Population Change
World: 6.7 Billion
U.S.: 302 Million
Mo.:
5,878,415
Boone: 152,435
@
Total Population
Percent Population Change
World: 6.7 Billion
U.S.: 302 Million
U.S. : 20.2 Million
Five States: 10.6 Million
* *
*
*
*
Mo.:
5,878,415
Boone: 152,435
Total Population
Percent Population Change
World: 6.7 Billion
U.S.: 302 Million
U.S. : 20.2 Million
Five States: 10.6 Million
* *
*
*
Mo.:
5,878,415
Boone: 152,435
Missouri
5.0%
Boone County 12.5%
*
Regions within regions
Boone County
Population 2007
152,435
Percent Change:
Missouri
5.0%
Boone County 12.5%
Population Pyramid for Boone County, 2006
Males
Boone County
Females
Taller with
more women
Population 2007
152,435
Boomers
Bust
Students
Future
Employment
U.S. AND MISSOURI PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
Index: 2000 annual average = 100
104.5
104.0
103.5
103.0
102.5
102.0
101.5
U.S.
(2000aa=100)
101.0
100.5
100.0
99.5
99.0
98.5
MISSOURI
(2000aa=100)
98.0
97.5
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
Jan-04
Oct-03
Jul-03
Apr-03
Jan-03
Oct-02
Jul-02
Apr-02
Jan-02
Oct-01
Jul-01
Apr-01
Jan-01
Oct-00
Jul-00
Apr-00
Jan-00
97.0
Employment in Missouri increased by 33,100 from April 2006 to April 2007, seasonally adjusted.
Source: MERIC and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Average Annual Unemployment Rate 2000 - 2007
7.0%
6.0%
5.6%
5.3%
5.2%
5.0%
6.0%
5.8%
5.0%
4.8%
4.5%
4.2%
4.0%
3.3%
3.3%
3.0%
2.0%
3.5%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.2%
2.9%
Boone County
2.1%
Missouri
1.0%
0.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
* Unemployment rates w ere 4.2% & 6.0% in Boone county & Missouri respectively for January & February 2008.
Regional Economic Share
2007 Missouri Economic Report
Jackson
County 11%
Central 6.5%
St. Louis
County 21%
“CORE”
Estimating Regional Economic Impacts--Employment
Employment is trending up
Community Policy Analysis Center (CPAC)
Estimating Regional Economic Impacts--Income
Income is trending up
Community Policy Analysis Center (CPAC)
Boone County Average Annual Employment*
Public & Private Sector
83,000
82,275
81,708
82,000
81,000
80,189
80,000
79,000
78,000
77,444
77,000
76,000
75,000
2004
2005
2006
* Includes full and part-time employment by total NAIC, federal, state, and local government
2007
Class of Worker, ACS 2006
100.0%
Boone
Missouri
80.0%
80.0%
65.8%
60.0%
40.0%
27.6%
20.0%
13.0%
6.4%
6.8%
0.2%
0.3%
0.0%
Private wage and salary
workers
Government workers
Self-employed workers in
own not incorporated
business
Unpaid family workers
Top 15 Economic Sectors Comprising Boone County Employment Base 2007
Five sectors account for more
than 60% of county employment
1.7%
3.0%
1.6%
2.7%
3.2%
22.6%
State Government
3.3%
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
3.6%
Local Government
Health care and Social Assistance*
3.9%
Manufacturing
Construction
Administrative and Waste Services
5.8%
State Government
14.0%
Professional and technical services
Other services, except public administra
6.1%
Management of companies and enterprises
Federal Government
Information*
8.1%
Educational services
11.5%
8.6%
* Includes full and part-time employment by total NAIC, federal, state, and local government
State (MU)
Retail
Hotels & Food
Local Gov’t
Health Care
Boone County Largest Employers
Source: REDI Fact Book, 2008 www.columbiaredi.com
Employment Change by Economic Sector – Boone County
Hotels and Food Services + 16.1%
Difference in
Annual
Health Care
+ 13.5%
Average
Percent
Manufacturing
- 13.7%
Employment
Change
Top 15 Economic Sectors
State Government
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Local Government
Health care and Social Assistance*
Manufacturing
Construction
Administrative and Waste Services
Wholesale Trade
Professional and technical services
Other services, not public administration
Management of companies &enterprises
Federal Government
Information*
Educational services
Total
2004
15,987
9,730
7,045
6,016
5,119
5,094
4,151
2,428
2,582
2,161
2,151
2,190
2,037
1,246
1,069
69,006
* Two-digit NAIC not available. Calculated from available three-digit NAIC
2005
16,390
9,938
7,696
6,086
5,335
4,924
4,297
3,136
2,637
2,292
2,123
2,263
2,037
1,231
1,116
71,501
2006
16,715
10,293
8,226
6,218
5,750
4,639
4,335
2,427
2,726
2,483
2,312
2,277
1,975
1157
1,099
72,632
2007
16535
10235
8397
6303
5915
4481
4208
2860
2637
2440
2357
2221
2004
1254
1169
73016
2004-2007
2004-2007
548
3.3%
505
4.9%
1,352
16.1%
287
4.6%
796
13.5%
-613
-13.7%
57
1.4%
432
15.1%
55
2.1%
279
11.4%
206
8.7%
31
1.4%
-33
-1.6%
8
0.6%
100
8.6%
4,010
5.5%
Missouri
Boone
Missouri
State Government
Boone
Missouri
Retail Trade
Boone
Missouri
Accommodation & Food Service
Boone
Missouri
Manufacturing
Boone
Missouri
Construction
Boone
Missouri
Health Care & Social Assistance*
Boone
All Private Sector
Difference in Annual Average Weekly Wage
2004-2007
$59.00
$29.00
$73
$105
$23
$22
$22
$16
$64
$29
$77
$56
$41
$31
Percent Change
2004-2007
8.1%
5.1%
10.8%
12.6%
5.2%
5.3%
8.4%
7.1%
7.2%
3.8%
9.1%
8.1%
5.9%
5.2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Wages (ES202)
Percent Workers by Major Occupational Category, 2006
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Boone
Missouri
Mangement &
Professional
Source: ACS, 2006
Sales
Services
Production &
Transport
Average Weekly Wage - All Private Sector Employment
$800
$600
$673
$535
$732
$719
$696
$547
$559
$564
$400
$200
Missouri
Boone County
$0
2004
2005
2006
2007
Self-Sufficiency Wage Standards, 2006
Two Adults with
Infant, Preschooler
and School-aged
Child**
County
Two Adults**
Two Adults
w/Two
Infants
Boone
$21,248.00
$45,275.01
$52,924.16
Callaway
$20,889.23
$36,288.95
$43,532.10
Cole
$20,226.25
$35,782.84
$43,712.91
Howard
$21,001.78
$36,455.96
$43,602.74
Source: MERIC and OSEDA, Wage Calculator
Household and Family Income
Boone County
Missouri
Median
Household
Income
$42,163
$42,841
Median
Family
Income
$59,266
$53,026
•
Source: American Community Survey, 2006.
Boone County Family Income Distribution, 2006 ACS
Total 36,468
Family
Households
Percent of Families
Boone
Missouri
Less than $10,000
1,104
3.0%
5.0%
$10,000 to $14,999
1,033
2.8%
4.0%
$15,000 to $24,999
4,118
11.3%
9.5%
$25,000 to $34,999
3,700
10.1%
11.3%
$35,000 to $49,999
5,843
16.0%
16.7%
$50,000 to $74,999
6,471
17.7%
22.6%
$75,000 to $99,999
5,728
15.7%
13.6%
$100,000 to $149,999
5,824
16.0%
11.3%
$150,000 to $199,999
1,333
3.7%
3.3%
$200,000 or more
1,314
3.6%
2.8%
Family Income Distribution, 2006
25.0%
20.0%
Boone
Missouri
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Boone
Regional Economic Share
2007 Missouri Economic Report
Jackson
County 11%
Central 6.5%
St. Louis
County 21%
Central
Source: MERIC
Economic Share in Missouri by County, 2006
Source: MERIC
New Businesses
per 1,000
Population, 2006
Source: MERIC
Source: REDI Fact Book, 2008
Dollars in Millions
Columbia Sales Tax Trends
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Actual FY 2007
Note: The General Fund % is 95.9%
Feb
Mar
Apr
Budget FY 2008
May June
July
Aug
Actual FY 2008
Sept
Missouri’s rating
declined from 28th in
2002 to 35th in 2007
Issues from
the “Undertaker”
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•
•
•
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Aging & Boomers
Entitlements
Globalization
Energy
Education
Percent Missouri Population Age 65+:
1990-2020
20
Percent
15
10
5
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
SOURCE: Census Bureau/NCHS. Projection algorithm, programming by OSEDA
Chart Prepared by: University of Missouri Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis
24March2006
Boone County
ranked first in the
state for both 2006 and 2007
Composite Kids Count Ratings
Quality of Life
Indicators for
Kids
Boone County ranked
11th in 2006 and
12th In 2007
Boone County
Population 2007
152,435
Percent Change:
Missouri
5.0%
Boone County 12.5%
Google OSEDA for More
Chamber of Commerce
2008 Annual Planning Retreat
Columbia, Missouri
Bill Elder, Director
Office of Social & Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA)
University of Missouri