Transcript Economic Base - Montana Indian Business Alliance

Analyzing Montana’s
Indian Reservations’ Economies
Susan Ockert
Senior Research Economist,
Census and Economic Information Center,
Montana Department of Commerce
1
Outline



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2
Census Data
What is an Economy?
Measuring Reservation Economies
Determining Potential
Sources for Statistics
Population Numbers

U.S. Census Bureau




Every 10 years on April 1
Self-reported
Residence within Census boundaries
Housing and Urban Development (HUD)


Three year average
Service population


Tribal

3
Institutional population may not be in area

Tribal members
Annual
Why Census?
Federal programs rely on census data for funding
 Indian Child Welfare Act



Title 6 – Grants to Indian Tribes




Housing and economic opportunities for low and moderate
income
Income/poverty data
Indian Employment Assistance


4
Programs for Aging
Age distribution by race
Indian Community Development Block Grants


Child and Family Services Programs
Families by race and age distribution
Vocational training and employment opportunities
Employment/Occupation by race
Census 2010
Pilot project in South Dakota
 Work directly with tribes
 Door-to-door visits by trained resident
enumerators rather than mailed forms
 Publicity campaigns: census data confidential so
can not be used against individual
 Use of hand-held electronic devices to identify
exact location of house
 Visit all rural areas on reservation
5
SOURCE:
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU,
CENSUS 2000
BLACKFEET
Population
10,100
Unemployment
22.6%
Per Capita Income
$9,751
Poverty
30.0%
Flathead
Median Age
Daniels
Glacier
Hill
Blaine
Phillips
Pondera
Sanders Lake
Sheridan
Roosevelt
Valley
Chouteau
26.5
BA+
13.5%
% American Indian
84.2%
Missoula
Rosebud
FLATHEAD
Population
Unemployment
Per Capita Income
Poverty
Yellowstone
26,172
Big Horn
7.9%
$14,503
15.8%
Median Age
37.4
BA+
20.8%
% American Indian
26.7%
ROCKY BOY’S
Population
FORT PECK
NORTHERN CHEYENNE
2,959
Population
10,321
Population
Unemployment
23%
Unemployment
17.5%
Unemployment
17.1%
Unemployment
19.5%
Per Capita Income
$9,440
Per Capita Income
$7,736
Poverty
26.6%
Poverty
39.3%
28.4%
Per Capita Income
$7,326
Per Capita Income
$8,150
Per Capita Income
Poverty
38.0%
Poverty
36.5%
Poverty
20.5
CROW
Population
Unemployment
Median Age
6
FORT BELKNAP
2,676
Median Age
23.5
Median Age
$10,691
30.1%
30.2
Median Age
6,894
27.6
Population
Median Age
4,470
22.7
BA+
11.8%
BA+
12.5%
BA+
14.6%
BA+
13.8%
BA+
13.5%
% American Indian
96.3%
% American Indian
94.3%
% American Indian
61.9%
% American Indian
74.9%
% American Indian
90.1%
Population by American Indian and by Tribe:
American
Indian
Reservation
Total
Blackfeet
10,110
8,146
Blackfeet alone
7,441
6,894
5,132
Crow alone
4.556
26,172
6,339
Salish alone
Kootenai alone
Salish and Kootenai
1,842
308
2,348
2,959
2,764
Assiniboine alone
Gros Ventres alone
1,068
1,276
10,321
6,116
Assiniboine alone
Assiniboine Sioux alone
Sioux alone
1,107
781
3,406
Northern Cheyenne
4,470
3,835
Northern Cheyenne alone
2,982
Rocky Boy’s
2,676
2,446
Rocky Boy’s Chippewa Cree alone
2130
Crow
Flathead
Fort Belknap
Fort Peck
Tribe
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
7
Number
American Indian Population:
Urban vs Rural
Urban = 1,000 people per square mile
Item
Number Percent
TOTAL
56,068
100%
Urban
23,347
41.6%
9,537
17%
32,721
58.4%
14,283
25.5%
Metropolitan*
Rural
Not in a Place**
*Metropolitan Areas: Billings, Great Falls, Missoula
**Concentrations of population, housing, and commercial structures that are
identifiable by name but have no legal authority.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
8
What is an ‘economy’?
Businesses
Jobs  Income
Consumers
Government
Create Wealth
•Marketing
•Customer Service
•Accounting
•Management
67% of GDP
Source: “Understanding Your Community’s Economic Base,”
University of Missouri Extension, http://muextension.missouri.edu
9
•Public Finance
•Zoning/Land Use
•Public Works
•Public Safety
Redistribute Wealth
Current Reservation Environment
Population
 Faster growth rate
 Younger median age
Education
 Fewer with degrees
 Higher drop out rate
10
Social
 Larger percent of
population uses food
stamps
 Higher pregnancy
rate
 Higher alcohol
treatment need
Current Reservation Economies
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




11
Higher unemployment
More poverty
Lower per capita income
Lower wages
Lower housing values
Smaller private sector
Types of Jobs

33% of jobs on the reservation are
Government compared with 15% of jobs in
the country as a whole

44% of jobs on the reservation are in the
Private Sector compared with 80% of jobs
in the nation
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, fedgazette, March 2006
12
Business Environment
Item
13
1997
2002
Number of businesses – MT
93,677
100,421
Number of Businesses – AI
1,912
1,990
Growth Rate – MT (1997 – 2002)
9%
Growth Rate – AI (1997 – 2002)
4%
Population – MT
878,706
910,670
Population – AI
54,726
57,841
Firms/1,000 citizens – MT
107
110
Firms/1,000 Indians – AI
35
34
Firms with employees – MT
25,974
28,258
Firms with employees – AI
438
357
% of firms with employees/total firms - MT
28%
28%
% of firms with employees/total firms – AI
23%
18%
Sales per business – MT ($1,000)
$402,321
$445,543
Sales per business – AI ($1,000)
$86,436
$107,830
NOTE: AI = American Indian
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Survey of Business Owners”
INDUSTRY COMPARISONS
Industry
% in Montana
Forestry
0.8%
9.3%
$655
Construction
14.1%
16%
$621
Manufacturing
3.7%
3.6%
$680
Wholesale Trade
4.3%
3.6%
$693
14.8%
18.9%
$398
Transportation & Warehousing
3.5%
2.1%
$573
Information
1.8%
0.9%
$673
Finance & Insurance
5.5%
1.5%
$752
Real Estate and Rental
4.6%
3.0%
$414
Professional Services
9.1%
6.6%
$735
Admin Support and Waste Management
4.1%
3.9%
$386
Health Care and Social Assistance
9.1%
3.3%
$586
Arts, Recreation, Entertainment
2.9%
2.4%
$267
Accommodations
2.0%
4.8%
$280
Food Services
7.6%
7.8%
$199
Other Consumer Services
8.9%
5.7%
$376
Retail Trade
Average Weekly Wages – State
14
* Indian Owned Businesses Only
** MT Average Weekly Wages
% on Reservations*
Wages**
$535
Sources: See last page
NON-RESERVATION INDUSTRIES
Industry
% in Montana
%Urban
Wages
Mining
0.8%
1.4%
$1,040
Utilities
0.6%
2.9%
$1,124
Construction
14.1%
38.6%
$621
Manufacturing
3.7%
7.1%
$680
Wholesale Trade
4.3%
2.9%
$693
14.8%
1.4%
$398
Transportation & Warehousing
3.5%
1.4%
$573
Finance & Insurance
5.5%
1.4%
$752
Real Estate and Rental
4.6%
4.3%
$414
Professional Services
9.1%
14.3%
$735
Admin Support and Waste Management
4.1%
11.4%
$386
Health Care and Social Assistance
9.1%
1.4%
$586
Food Services
7.6%
1.4%
$199
Other Consumer Services
8.9%
4.3%
$376
Retail Trade
Average Weekly Wages – State
* Indian Owned Businesses Only
** MT Average Weekly Wages
15
Source: See last page
$535
Non-Reservation Business Locations
Kalispell: 5
Havre: 5
Missoula: 5
Helena: 10
Great Falls: 9
Billings: 30
*Note: Indian Owned Businesses Only
16
Source: See last page
17
www.ourfactsyourfuture.org
18
UNEMPLOYMENT
MT Dept of Labor, Research
and Analysis Bureaus Criteria:



Statistics represent labor
characteristics of the reservation,
not the tribe.
Unemployment rates produced by
MT Department of Labor
Labor Force definition:




Statistics represent labor
characteristics of the tribe,
not the reservation.

Labor Force definition:

Civilian, non-institutional
population 16 years and older
The sum of Employment and
Unemployment


Employment definition:




Bureau of Indian Affairs Criteria:
Did any work as paid employees
or,
Worked in their own business,
profession, or farm or,
Worked 15 hours or more as
unpaid workers in a family owned
enterprise
Unemployment Rate definition:

Equal to the number of
Unemployed divided by number
in the Labor Force
19
www.ourfactsyourfuture.org

Employment definition:


Number of tribal
members between 16 and
64 years old
Available for work
Not disabled or
incarcerated
Tribal members working
for money
Unemployment definition:

Calculated by subtracting
Employment from Labor
Force
Productivity – Measure of Efficiency
Average Output per Worker (IMPLAN)
Area
Output/worker
Output/worker
Montana
$86,309
Lewis & Clark
$82,675
Blackfeet
$75,398
Cascade
$83,367
Crow
$76,531
Missoula
$82,749
Flathead
$82,532
Gallatin
$80,178
Fort Belknap
$56,367
Flathead
$85,341
Fort Peck
$69,559
Hill
$69,383
Northern Cheyenne
$60,559
Garfield
$82,941
Rocky Boys
$67,638
Richland
$85,986
Glacier
$71,790
Rosebud
$100,944
Toole
$77,466
Blaine
$59,319
Beaverhead
$80,303
Yellowstone
20
Area
$116,707
Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com
Compensation per Worker
Average Salary per Worker (IMPLAN)
Area
21
Output/worker
Area
Output/worker
Montana
$24,680
Lewis & Clark
$30,370
Blackfeet
$20,894
Cascade
$28,048
Crow
$21,697
Missoula
$25,324
Flathead
$24,197
Gallatin
$23,500
Fort Belknap
$16,089
Flathead
$23,225
Fort Peck
$17,129
Hill
$23,711
Northern Cheyenne
$27,005
Garfield
$10,775
Rocky Boys
$21,908
Richland
$21,350
Glacier
$26,409
Rosebud
$35,437
Toole
$22,866
Blaine
$19,141
Yellowstone
$28,867
Beaverhead
$21,834
Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com
Natural Resources
Resource
Total
Timber Sales (2005)
$ 4,242,299
Coal Royalties (2000)
$ 3,402,663
Gas Royalties (2000)
$
Oil Royalties (2000)
$ 2,550,800
610,000
Montana Reservations compared to U.S. Reservations
• 13% of all acres of coal
• 12% of all oil and gas leases
• 5% of all coal royalties/revenues
• 5% of oil royalties/revenues
Source: Minerals Management Office, U.S. Geological Survey
22
Agriculture on the Reservation
Item
Non Native
American
Total
Native
American
% of Total
Farms
2,552
1,825
727
29%
Average Size (acres)
3,116
2,179
5,196
167%
Market Value of Products
$221,182,000 $162,150,000
$59,032,000
27%
Farm Expenses*
$183,549,000 $150,709,000
$32,841,000
18%
Internet Access
1,406
1,048
358
26%
55%
57%
49%
N/A
Market Value per Acre
$52,116
$59,636
$11,361
22%
Expense per Acre
$43,249
$55,428
$6,320
15%
$8,867
$4,208
$5,041
57%
% of Farms with Internet
Net Income per Acre
* Due to confidential information, only 6 reservations used
United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, http://www.nass.usda.gov/Census_of_Agriculture/index.asp
23
Business – Where to Locate
Retail sales: Gauge of purchasing power
Population: 5,584
Population: 3,946
On reservation
Off reservation
How much
population is
needed?
16 mile radius – One establishment
Business
Grocery Store
329
1,250
General Merchandise
385
1,536
Pharmacy
957
2,939
Hardware Store
959
3,709
1,083
4,000
Automotive Parts
24
Town Population Market Population
“Potential for Retail Trades in Rural Communities,” University of Missouri Extension, http://muextension.missouri.edu;
Montana Natural Resource Information System, Interactive Mapping and Database Applications, http://nris.state.mt.us/interactive.html
Examples
Population: 5,584
Number of Establishments
Population: 3,946
On reservation
Store
Off reservation
Actual Potential
Store
Actual
Potential
Automotive
0
1
Automotive
2
1
Grocery
1
3
Grocery
2
3
Pharmacy
0
1
Pharmacy
1
1
General*
2
2
General*
1
2
Hardware
0
1
Hardware
1
1
Total
3
8
Total
7
8
* Dollar stores, general stores, trading posts: retail new goods such as apparel, dry goods, house wares, etc.
U.S. Census Bureau, Zip Code Business Patterns, 2003, www.census.gov
25
PRIVATE BUSINESSES
Blackfeet Reservation
Montana
Industry
Native
American
Non
Indian
Cut
Bank
Ave
Wages
Agriculture
2
8
17
$477
Construction
8
0
18
$621
Manufacturing
1
0
10
$680
Retail
23
18
48
$398
Professional Business Services
19
11
49
$779
Health Care
0
0
20
$761
Restaurants
16
16
20
$210
Consumer Services
11
4
21
$376
Source for businesses: Reference USA and individual visits.
Source for wages: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, (QCEW), Montana Department of Labor
26
GOVERNMENT
Blackfeet
Reservation
Cut Bank
City/County
8
27
$519
State
6
12
$660
Tribal
76
0
$600
Federal
35
5
$953
TOTAL
125
44
Government
Ave Wages
Source for businesses: Reference USA and individual visits.
Source for wages: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, (QCEW), Montana Department of Labor
27
Threshold Analysis


Central Place Theory - Population needed to
support retail and service businesses
Simple Analysis: population and number of
businesses


Similar characteristics such as population & location
Does not take into account economies of scale





28
Square footage
Number of doctors in one facility
Grocery store
Health care
Financial Institutions
Grocery Stores
Location
On the Reservation
Threshold Actual#
4,480
Potential*
4
6
Browning
1
2
Wolf Point
1
2
Ronan
2
2
Just off Reservation
2,923
5
5
Trade Center
3,287
10
12
Metropolitan
2,853
75
85
Statewide
2,725
337
337
# Number of Businesses
*Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 2,725
On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, Ronan
Just Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, Glasgow
Trade Center: Havre, Miles City, Glendive
Metropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena
29
Health Care: Doctors and Clinics
Location
On the Reservation
Threshold
1,378
Actual#
Potential*
13
35
Browning
2
13
Wolf Point
3
10
Ronan
8
12
Just off Reservation
812
18
29
Trade Center
587
56
64
Metropolitan
300
808
476
Statewide
509
1,804
1,804
# Number of Businesses
*Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 509
On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, Ronan
Just Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, Glasgow
Trade Center: Havre, Miles City, Glendive
Metropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena
30
Financial Institutions
Location
On the Reservation
Threshold Actual# Potential*
3,584
5
14
Browning
1
5
Wolf Point
2
4
Ronan
2
5
Just off Reservation
1,044
14
12
Trade Center
1,174
28
27
Metropolitan
780
311
197
1,227
748
748
Statewide
# Number of Businesses
*Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 1,227
On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, Ronan
Just Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, Glasgow
Trade Center: Havre, Miles City, Glendive
Metropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena
31
Implications
32

Reservations are underserved in these
private sectors

Just Off the Reservation serving own
population and reservation

Trade Centers and Metropolitans serve a
much larger region
Location Quotient




33
Determine if number of jobs are what a local
economy should have to serve local needs
Comparison of local employment to statewide for
each industry
< 1 = underserved, > 1 = serving more than local
MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research
and Analysis has calculated LQ for each county
in Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)
Blackfeet Reservation
Industry
Grocery Stores
LQ Comment
0.03 Very under served
Financial Institution ND
Health Care
ND
Industry
Human Resource
Programs
Executive Government
Non-disclosable – one establishment
Non-disclosable – one establishment
LQ Comment
16.6 Most over served of all
14.9 2nd over served
Can not provide Location Quotient for most
businesses since there are so few of them
34
Implications



35
Money is leaving the reservations to
purchase retail goods and consumer
services
There is not an adequate supply of financial
services on the reservations
There is not an adequate supply of doctors,
clinics, etc. on the reservations
Diversity of Economy

Hachman Index measures diversity of economy –
employment spread out among many different
industries compared to benchmark




36
Montana or United States
More diversity reduces community’s vulnerability
to economic downturns
Closer to 1 mean more diversity
MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research
and Analysis has calculated HI for each county in
Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)
Hachman Index
Fort Peck Reservation
 Blackfeet Reservation
County Hachman Indices
 Lowest (Stillwater)
 Median



37
= .01
= .25
(McCone, Phillips, Toole)
Highest

= .24
= .14
= .66
(Gallatin, Missoula, Cascade)
Implications
38

Reservation and county economies are not
diverse

‘One company’ towns
Summary

Private businesses create wealth



Governments redistribute wealth


39
Private goods and services
Business decisions
Public goods and services
Government decisions
NATIVE AMERICAN STATISTICS
Department of Commerce
Census and Economic
Information Center
www.ceic.mt.gov American Indian Data
Department of Labor
Workforce Services Division
Research and Analysis Bureau
www.ourfactsourfuture.mt.gov
Montana Indian Business Alliance
(MIBA)
40










Census 2000
Economic Census 2002
Census Population Estimates by Race
Census of Agriculture
Office of Public Instruction
1990 Census
CEIC Presentations
CEIC Maps
2006 Labor Day Report
MT Reservation Data
www.mibaonline.org





Indian Census Data
Indian Economic Data
Indian Business Data
Indian Business Directory
Reservation Maps
Legislative Representation
STATE
41
% AIAN # of AIAN LEGISLATORS
% AIAN
Oklahoma
7.4%
17
15.2%
Montana
6.0%
10
11.1%
New Mexico
9.6%
6
5.7%
Alaska
14.2%
9
4.8%
Washington
1.4%
5
3.4%
Maine
0.5%
2
3.3%
South Dakota
8.4%
4
2.8%
Arizona
4.7%
2
2.2%
Colorado
0.9%
3
1.2%
North Dakota
4.9%
2
1.2%
Wyoming
1.9%
1
1.0%
North Carolina
1.3%
1
0.7%
Note: AIAN is American Indian Alaska Native
Contact Information
Susan Ockert
Montana Department of Commerce
Census and Economic Information Center
Senior Research Economist
(406) 821-2740
[email protected]
www.ceic.mt.gov
42
Sources:
•Reservation Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; US Department of Interior, Bureau of Indian
Affairs, 2003; MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research Analysis Bureau, 2005
•Population: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, July 1, 2004 Estimates
•Unemployment: MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis Bureau, Labor Day
Report 2005
•Per Capita: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2003
•Poverty: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates, 2002
•Housing Value: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
•Median Age: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
•% Food Stamps: MT Department Public Health and Human Services, Statistical Report June 2005
•Pregnancies: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, Trends in Montana Teen
Pregnancies and Their Outcomes 1981-2000, November 2002
•Alcohol treatment Need: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, An Integrated
Substance Abuse Treatment Needs Assessment for Montana, 2001
•Drop Out: Office of Public Instruction, Montana High School Dropout Rates by Race/Ethnicity,
2003-04 School Year
•U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 American Indian and Alaska Native Summary File (AIANSF) –
Sample Data, www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/allreservationsbytribe.xls
•U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 2, Matrix PCT1.
www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/urban_rural_indian.xls
•Industry Data:U.S. Census Bureau, “County Business Patterns”
•Reference USA,
•Small Business Administration, Minority Business Database,
•Montana Department of Transportation, Disadvantaged Business Enterprise Program
•Personal visits and interviews
•Montana Business Alliance members
•University of Montana American Indian Leadership
43