Transcript Population: Canada and the World

Population:
Canada and the World
By
Eric Tolman
World Population Figures: Jan. 2010
1) China
2) India
3) USA
4) Indonesia
5) Brazil
6) Pakistan
7) Nigeria
1, 342,000,000
1,192,000,000
311,000,000
238,000,000
191,000,000
171,000,000
158,000,000
36) Canada
223) Vatican City
224) Pitcairn Is.
34,000,000
800
50
(Populations are rounded
to the nearest million)
China currently has the world’s largest population, but
India is expected to overtake it sometime in the next decade.
www.wikipedia.com
World Population Growth
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By the year 1999, the world’s population had reached 6 billion and
by 2013 we had passed 7 billion
Many ask to what degree does the growth in population impact
shortages in energy, housing, food and an increase in pollution,
unemployment and the destruction of the environment
A sharp increase in the world’s population will, and has, created
problems- the 20th century began with 2 billion and ended with 6
Demography is the statistical study of human population which helps
us understand the causes and consequences of population growth
Accurate population figures are important for government and
business to determine things like schools, hospital and other services
where business requires consumer growth and habits to determine
marketing strategies
The Census: Counting
People
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According to the UN, a census is the, “ total process of collecting,
compiling, and publishing demographic, economic, and social data
pertaining to a particular time, to all persons in a particular country”
Since confederation, Canada has had a census every ten years in the
first year at the end of each decade which provides a picture of the
CDN population
Surveys are a micro census, helping to determine market trends, TV
viewing and voting trends
All this info, together with health, job and scholastic statistics help
determine gov’t and business policy and a privacy commission has been
set up to make sure private info stays that way.
Demographic figures in developing countries must be met with caution,
but stats from the developed countries are more accurate than
developing countries due to fewer registered births and deaths and more
remote areas too distant to track- shanty towns are not considered
permanent residents of a city
as a result, comparing a countries literacy, education and employment
is difficult
Population Rates
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The components of population change are: How many people are born,
how many die, and how many move in or out of an area
Births - deaths + immigrants - emigrants = increase or decrease in
population
What really matters is determining the relationship between the number
of birth rates and the size of a country’s population since populations
vary significantly from one country to the next
For example, the crude birth weight is calculated by dividing the number
of births in one year by the population, and then multiplying the result by
1000
The same method is used to measure the crude death rate
Subtracting deaths from births gives the rate of natural increase
If a couple has 4 children and they grow up to have four children, by the
3rd generation, the couple will have 16 descendants- this is called an
exponential rate of increase
In the “rule of seventy” the doubling time of a countries population is
approx. equal to seventy divided by the growth rate in % per year
The Effects of Migrations
• Population increase in some countries, like Canada, depends
on immigrants
• Immigration rates and emigration rates are calculated to give
net migration rate
• A combination of the birth and death rate combined with net
migration rates gives a complete picture of the annual
change in the CDN population
• Canada, The US and Australia are some of only a few
countries where immigration is a big part of population growth
• Better economic opportunities and freedom from war and
persecution bring many to CDA
• Since most immigrants are young and single males, it has lead
to a higher birth rate in host countries
The Demographic
Revolution
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Populations grew slowly in Europe before the 1700’s due to poor health,
disease, unsanitary conditions which resulted in a life expectancy of only
30 years-today in Canada it is over 75!
By 1750, better methods of agriculture and greater awareness of health
saw death rates decline and birth rates increase
After WW2, the World Health Organization and other aid programs made
improved health measures available to all countries
Death rates would fall, but birth rates would eclipse that which accounts
for such rapid growth in populations in the developing world where these
countries are not equipped to deal with huge growth in their populations
A useful way of explaining population change is the demographic
transition model
This model shows changes over a period of time in three elements: birth
rates, death rates and trends in overall population numbers
This system assumes that as undeveloped areas become more industrial
and urban, their populations rates will follow patterns of the developed
world
The Age Structure of
Populations
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Demographers divide populations into 3 categories: children up to
16, working adults from 16-64 and adults 65 years and older
This gives us the dependency ratio, that is the proportion of the
population that is being supported by the working age group
In the 1996 census, Canada’s pop. Included 21 % children and 12%
seniors giving it a dependency ratio of 33% where Bangladesh has a
53% dependency load: 47% children and 6% seniors
A population pyramid is a graph that shows the age and sex
structure of a population and a series of horizontal bar graphs for the
male and female populations are placed back to back at age
intervals of 5 years, called cohorts
These pyramids help us see the structure of population and make it
easier to compare population structures of different countries
In general, expanding pyramids are representative of developing
countries, while the stable and contracting pyramids represent
developed countries
Dependency ratio measures the number of non-working people (seniors
and children as compared to the number of working people. Canada’s
dependency ratio is expected to rise in the next decade as the baby
boomers retire. This is the same pattern expected to occur in many other
developed countries as the chart above shows.
Population Pyramids
Population pyramids show the age and gender of a country’s population.
The pyramids are sectioned off into five year time periods known as
cohorts. There are four population pyramids: early expanding, expanding,
stable, and contracting, that range from least developed to most developed
countries.
Somalia would be classified as an early expanding
country. Notice the very wide base and the gap
between the 0-4 and 5-9 cohorts. There are very few
adults in the 80 year old category.
Canada’s population 1995: Note the baby
boomers and the high percentage of working-age
adults as compared to seniors.
Japan is classified as a contracting pyramid as
the population is actually declining. Notice the
relatively small base and the much wider top than
the expanding pyramids.
This shows Canada’s predicted population for 2050, which will be contracting
unless we have increased immigration. Notice the small base and the
huge number of people in the 80+ ratio. This would dramatically increase
Canada’s dependency ratio and put major strains on our social programs
such as medicare. War, disease, or changed immigration patterns could
make these predictions incorrect.
Canada’s Population:
The Past and the Future
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CDA’s birth and death rates have been dropping steadily in the past 30
years. For example in 1951, 1 in 13 CDNs were over 65 and by 2020 1 in 5
will be over 65.
In addition, life expectancy in Canada has increased: from 45 in 1900 to
65 in 1950 and 81 in 2010
The increase in the elderly puts huge strain on social and medical services
with fewer children to look after aging parents
The age structure determines immigration levels and the main difficulty is
attracting skilled workers and entrepreneurs to offset the aging workforce
While the world population continues to increase, those in the
dependent category have increased as well
In Japan, life expectancy is the highest in the world- 79 for males and 86
for females. By 2025, 1/3 of Japan’s population will be over 65
On the other end, countries like Kenya where over 45 % of the population
is under 15 and 3 % are over 65- a cycle of poverty exists in these areas
which lead to conflict
Where do 7.2 billion
People Live?
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Population distribution refers to the way people are spaced over the
earth’s surface-the majority lives north of the equator in mid-latitudes and
close to the ocean
Population density is the number of people living in a given area which is
calculated by dividing the population by its area-CDA has 3.5 persons
per square km with 80% urban and is one of the lowest in the world
There are great differences in the productivity of farmland around the
globe. For ex. The Fraser Valley has exceptionally rich soil but output is
restricted by a short season
In Southern China, rich soils and a climate conducive to three growing
seasons can produce far more food that the CDN prairies
Nutritional density measures how much nutrition in calories can be
produced from the land
With an ever increasing population, the future will be determined by the
youth of the developing nations as we move through the early 21st
century
Doubling time measures the number of years it takes for a country
to double its population. Developing nations have much shorter
doubling times than developed countries due to their higher birth rates.
Crude Birth Rates of the World (2003)
Note: Birth rates (fertility rates) are usually measured per 1000 people.
In 1980, the One Child policy was introduced in China. Families
were given financial incentives and various other perks if they only
had one child. Penalties for couples who defied the policy included
fines and loss of housing, educational, and medical services. The
program was particularly successful in the cities, but many farming
families resisted. This program did halt China’s rapid population growth,
but also created some new problems such as forced abortions, a higher
percentage of male babies, and loss of basic human rights.
China’s One Child policy has been estimated to have prevented about
400,000 people from being born since it was enacted and the Chinese
government plans to continue the policy for at least a few more years,
although it has been relaxed in recent years. One problem it has created
is the imbalance between males and females, as many parents have taken
measures to ensure their only child is a boy.
World Population Distribution: Notice that the vast majority of the people
live near the oceans. The most concentrated areas are southern Asia,
Europe, and coastal United States and Mexico.
This map shows the world’s population density. Notice that the most
densely populated continents are Asia and Europe. Australia is the least
densely populated continent. Population density is affected by factors
such as climate, geography, suitability of soil for farming, access to water,
disease, and natural resources. Human factors such as type of government,
development, culture, and communication also play a role.
Canada
Japan
Nutritional density measures the productivity of farmland in a country.
Canada has a relatively low nutritional density because of our harsh
winter climate in many regions. Many Asian countries such as Japan
and China are much higher because they can grow crops all year long in
much of the country.