Transcript Slide 1

Europe’s Share of the
Climate Challenge
Domestic Actions and International
Obligations to Protect the Planet
December 1st, 2009
Charles Heaps, Pete Erickson, Sivan Kartha, Eric KempBenedict
www.ClimateShareEurope.org
www.sei-international.org
www.foeeurope.org
Updated Reasons for Concern
Source: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘‘reasons for concern’’ (PNAS, Feb 2009)
Gt CO2e
The South’s Dilemma
Examines how Europe can show
climate leadership…
• …by undertaking domestic actions to rapidly
reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs),
• and by fulfilling its international obligations to
help other countries address the twin crises of
climate change and development.
Domestic Actions
• A detailed sector-by-sector mitigation scenario for all
27 EU countries that can achieve GHG emissions
reductions of 40% in 2020 and almost 90% in 2050
relative to 1990 levels.
• Mitigation achieved through a combination of radical
improvements in energy efficiency, accelerated
retirement of fossil fuels and a dramatic shift toward
various types of renewable energy, including wind,
solar, wave, geothermal and biomass-based
combined heat and power (CHP).
International Obligations
• Examines Europe’s international
obligations for assisting the world’s
developing nations make a transition
to a low-GHG future.
• Uses the Greenhouse Development
Rights framework to assess fair
contributions to a global climate effort.
• We estimate Europe’s fair share to be
between €150 billion and €450 billion
in 2020 depending on the cost of
mitigation -- approximately 1% to 3%
of the EU’s projected 2020 GDP.
www.gdrights.org
Excluded Options
• At request of FoEE, certain potentially significant
mitigation options excluded:
– No new nuclear power & phase out of existing nuclear
facilities.
– No carbon capture and storage (CCS) for fossil generation.
– No biofuels.
– No offsetting.
• Even without these mitigation options, Europe is still
able to meet its target reductions.
Concerns Over Excluded Options:
• Nuclear: proliferation; safety; waste disposal & storage; high cost of R&D
may crowd out research into renewables.
• CCS: high R&D costs; unlikely to be commercialized anytime soon; unclear
if CO2 storage reliable; “CCS ready” plants (with no storage) may never
actually be used to capture CO2; CO2 storage sites likely to be a scarce
commodity – may be used to store biomass CO2 – to reduce atmospheric
concentrations.
• Biofuels: currently have little if any mitigation benefits; 2nd generation
(e.g. woody) biofuels also excluded up to 2050 due to concerns over landuse implications in developing countries, but may be an important option.
• Offsetting: is excluded by definition since the focus of the study is
domestic mitigation. Offsetting simply shifts reductions to other locations
and would allow the EU to defer the changes described in our scenario.
Sufficiency and Equity
• Study examines the role of sufficiency and equity in
helping promote the needed transition to a low GHG
future reflected in lower GDP vs. Baseline.
• Mitigation GDP grows by a factor of 1.6 between
2008 and 2050 versus the 1.8 times growth in the
Baseline scenario.
• Increased levels of equity among EU countries are
also assumed, on the basis that achieving an EU-wide
mobilisation on climate will require greater solidarity
between nations.
Analysis Developed Using SEI’s LEAP
Software.
www.energycommunity.org
Results of the GDRs analysis for each of the EU 27 countries for the year 2020
Total Obligation
Country
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
Total
MT CO2e
RCI %
0.6%
91
1.0%
140
0.2%
23
0.0%
6
0.7%
108
0.6%
81
0.1%
12
0.4%
63
4.2%
616
7.3%
1,078
0.5%
81
0.3%
40
0.3%
48
3.4%
493
0.0%
7
0.1%
12
0.1%
12
0.0%
2
1.4%
199
1.1%
159
0.3%
45
0.2%
34
0.2%
30
0.1%
16
1.9%
281
0.8%
111
5.7%
835
31.9%
4,685
% below
1990
118%
110%
95%
-24%
82%
112%
105%
106%
136%
116%
57%
78%
48%
107%
327%
92%
36%
73%
90%
44%
64%
69%
75%
54%
49%
239%
132%
103%
Domestic Reduction
MT CO2e
30
48
11
5
69
37
5
31
130
351
45
16
25
142
3
6
6
1
80
241
14
37
21
15
116
25
202
1,713
% below
1990
17%
37%
83%
-50%
59%
51%
81%
44%
33%
51%
20%
50%
5%
18%
243%
76%
-33%
-5%
30%
67%
13%
71%
61%
49%
-16%
33%
41%
40%
International Obligation
MT CO2e
61
92
12
1
39
44
7
32
486
727
36
24
23
351
5
6
6
1
120
-82
31
-3
9
1
165
85
633
2,972
Additional
% below
1990
100%
73%
11%
26%
23%
61%
24%
61%
104%
65%
36%
28%
43%
89%
83%
16%
69%
78%
60%
-23%
51%
-1%
14%
5%
65%
207%
90%
63%
billion €
(assuming
€50/tCO2e)
3.0
4.6
0.6
0.1
2.0
2.2
0.3
1.6
24.3
36.4
1.8
1.2
1.1
17.5
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
6.0
-4.1
1.5
-0.1
0.5
0.0
8.3
4.3
31.6
148.6
billion €
(assuming
€150/tCO2e)
9.1
13.8
1.8
0.2
5.9
6.6
1.0
4.8
72.8
109.1
5.4
3.6
3.4
52.6
0.7
0.9
1.0
0.1
18.0
-12.2
4.6
-0.4
1.4
0.1
24.8
12.8
94.9
445.9
Population:
Same in both scenarios
But Income is More Equal in 2050…
2010
2050 Baseline 2050 Mitigation
Substantial Energy Efficiency
Gains In All Sectors…
…and Substantial Switching to Low
Carbon Fuels
Key Measures for Buildings
• Increased building shell efficiency for both
new buildings and retrofits.
• Improved efficiency of heating, cooling and
lighting systems.
• Shift from direct use of fossil fuels to
electricity (heat pumps), solar power and CHP.
• Sufficiency: after trending up for decades,
home sizes return to 2005 levels by 2050.
Key Policies for Buildings
• EU’s Energy Performance of Buildings
Directive extended to all buildings and
standards tightened.
• Access to capital needed to finance retrofits
and scale-up efficiency measures.
• Performance targets for appliances
• New Standards for the use of renewables in
heating and cooling.
Household Energy Demand
Services Energy Demand
Passive Solar Buildings
Industrial Energy Demand
Key Industry Policies
• New regulations and subsidies to change
production techniques.
• Accelerated R & D for new techniques, new
materials and alternative chemical feedstocks.
• Incentives for fuel switching.
• Enhancement of the European Emission
Trading Scheme (ETS) to close loopholes,
eliminate auctioning, and set a tighter cap.
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Transport Energy Demand
Key Transport Policies
•
•
•
•
•
Aggressive vehicle performance standards
Build-out of electric transportation infrastructure.
Expansion of rail infrastructure.
Removing subsidies (and taxing) air transport.
Better urban and land use planning to support transit-,
bicycle-, and pedestrian-friendly communities.
• Congestion charges, car free city zones, road pricing, freight
charges and weight taxes.
• Cutting fossil fuel subsidies and introducing carbon taxes.
Switch to Renewables for
Electric Generation…
…Will Require Huge Increase in Capacity
Due to Renewable Intermittency
Will Require New Types of Load
Management:
• Electric vehicles (sending electricity back to grid)
• Demand side management: new devices and
facilities that can be switched down or off (aka
smart grids)
• HVDC electric superhighways between countries.
• Renewables with storage: CAES, flywheels, pump
storage, batteries, etc.
Primary Requirements Enormously
Reduced…
• Coal eliminated
• Nuclear phased
out
• Oil and gas
massively reduced.
• Large increase in
renewables
especially wind.
Estimates of Renewable Potentials Show Primary
Requirements Can Be Met in Scenario
2030 Economic Potential (TWh/yr)
Country
Hydro
Austria
56.0
Belgium
0.5
Bulgaria
12.0
Cyprus
1.0
Czech Republic
3.0
Denmark
Estonia
0.4
Finland
20.0
France
72.0
Germany
26.0
Greece
12.0
Hungary
4.0
Ireland
1.3
Italy
65.0
Latvia
4.0
Lithuania
1.5
Luxembourg
1.0
Malta
Netherlands
0.1
Poland
7.0
Portugal
20.0
Romania
18.0
Slovakia
6.0
Slovenia
8.0
Spain
41.0
Sweden
90.0
United Kingdom
8.0
Total EU27 Potential
477.8
2006 Production
307.7
2050 Mitigation Production
399.2
2050 Mit Prod/Poten (%)
84%
Geothermal
4.1
0.8
14.1
28.2
9.4
51.9
19.6
0.8
1.3
1.7
14.1
1.0
3.1
0.4
28.2
1.3
0.3
180.3
5.6
68.7
38%
Biomass
101.2
26.7
3.5
58.2
29.1
30.2
109.3
551.3
502.4
44.2
65.1
15.1
288.4
27.9
115.1
0.5
27.9
457.1
47.7
41.9
20.9
291.9
157.0
284.9
3,297.6
46.3
1,393.1
42%
Solar
Thermal
20.0
4.0
7.0
2.0
142.0
1,278.0
1,453.0
2.5
295.0
20%
Solar
PV
2.9
2.1
2.0
0.1
1.1
1.3
1.7
23.4
23.4
3.9
2.0
1.1
17.6
0.8
0.1
4.3
3.1
3.9
2.0
2.0
1.0
19.5
3.7
7.8
130.8
2.5
104.3
80%
Wind
Wind
Onshore Offshore
56.0
425.0
30.0
112.0
22.5
25.0
3.0
85.0
751.0
420.4
597.0
105.1
3,359.0
210.2
3,115.0
300.3
2,467.0
270.3
372.0
120.1
1.0
1,315.0
150.1
334.0
127.6
593.0
90.1
442.0
11.3
10.0
7.0
533.0
345.3
2,609.0
75.1
152.0
52.6
99.0
15.0
11.0
2.0
682.0
75.1
2,539.0
225.2
4,409.0
750.7
25,102.0
3,400.0
82.0
898.2
700.0
4%
21%
Wave
& Tidal
0.2
0.2
2.2
2.0
12.0
7.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
0.1
1.0
1.0
7.0
13.0
2.0
60.0
118.7
0.5
46.6
39%
Total
220.2
484.6
149.3
52.8
147.3
1,204.0
732.7
3,702.2
4,088.0
3,324.3
569.6
124.0
1,486.7
862.2
715.0
570.7
11.8
9.7
912.9
3,153.9
439.2
135.0
64.0
32.3
2,428.7
3,018.2
5,520.8
34,160.2
447.1
3,905.1
11%
GHG Reductions:
40% by 2020, ~ 90% by 2050
Energy Sector GHG Emissions
Converge toward ~ 1 tCO2e per Capita
Costs of Mitigation
• A partial estimate of cumulative incremental costs covering households,
services, transport, electric generation and avoided fuel purchases for
2010-2020 comes to €1.94 trillion, or about 1.7% of GDP over the same
period (€111tn).
• A fuller accounting including industry and other sectors would be in the
range of 1% to 3% of GDP - consistent with other mitigation studies.
Roughly equivalent to temporarily holding GDP constant for about one
year before resuming normal growth.
• To this must be added Europe’s international obligations for assisting the
world’s developing nations make a transition to a low-GHG future. We
estimate these to be between €150 billion and €450 billion in 2020
depending on the cost of mitigation, or a further 1% - 3% of GDP.
• Small costs when viewed in the context of the seriousness of the climate
crisis.
Going Further:
Options If This is Not Enough:
• Second generation biofuels to eliminate
remaining oil and gas
• Biomass CHP with carbon capture and storage
(CCS) for CO2-negative heat generation
• Enhancing land use sinks
• New technologies such as green cements,
hydrogen, etc.
For more information:
Visit ClimateShareEurope.org to access:
– The full report.
– This presentation.
– LEAP software and the LEAP data set for this
analysis.
– Detailed results tables as Excel spreadsheets.
Contact the authors at:
– [email protected]