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Remarks of Ron Binz
Principal, Public Policy Consulting
November 9, 2012 • Denver
Public Policy Consulting
www.rbinz.com
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Five Reasons To Be Bullish
Long-term on Renewable Energy
• Compliance with climate goals
• Lower costs for wind and solar
• Acceptance of renewables by utilities and
consumers
• Smart grid interplay
• Changing utility business models
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Renewable Electricity
Futures Study (REF)
Exploration of High-Penetration
Renewable Electricity Futures
Available at NREL.gov
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NREL’s REF Findings
•
Renewable electricity generation is more than adequate to supply 80% of total
U.S. electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly
basis in every region of the country.
•
Increased electric system flexibility can come from a portfolio of supply- and
demand-side options, like flexible conventional generation, grid storage, new
transmission, more responsive loads, and changes in power system operations.
•
The are multiple paths using renewables that result in deep reductions in electric
sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use.
•
The direct incremental cost with high renewable generation is comparable to
costs of other clean energy scenarios.
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Helpful fact:
The US summer peak electrical
use is around 800 GW.
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Baseline Case
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REF ITI Case
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Notes
• Unadjusted 2010 cost estimates were used for
consistency
CO2 costs
• Costs for wind and photovoltaics have fallen
sharply in last two years (faster than these 2010
estimates)
With incentives
• Cost of nuclear power has risen post-Fukushima
(more than these 2010 estimates) No incentives
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NREL’s estimate of continued
cost reductions for wind energy
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DOE’s Sunshot Program
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Arizona
Colorado
Florida
New Jersey
Germany
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Solar Electric Density
• Use: 100 MW(ac)/mile2
• Colorado Peak Integrated Demand: 11GW
• Result: 110 mile2 required land area
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110 mi2
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But what if 11 GW of solar were spread
around the state in 100 MW installations?
It might look like this...
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Question:
How do we explain the variations in outcomes
• between NJ and GA
• between the US and Germany
Answer:
Policy; regulation; industry structure; incentives.
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A Recent Hart Associates Poll
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Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES)
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The Evolving Utility Business Model
• Multiple threats to business as usual
• Utilities must adapt in order to grow (survive)
• We need to change the regulatory incentives
to reward utilities for pursuing societal goals
• Regulation needs to produce greater firm
efficiency
• Expect a new regulatory compact to emerge
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Congratulations to the Alliance
for 8+ years of leadership.
Thanks for the invitation.
I look forward to your questions.
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