A Walk Through Time

Looking at 40 years of Commuting Characteristics

Presented at the Applications Planning Conference April 2003 Nancy McGuckin, Travel Behavior Analyst Nanda Srinivasan, Cambridge Systematics Inc.

In the last forty years there’s been:

Changes in family structure and workforce composition Growth in area, population, and workers in the suburban counties of major MSAs An influx of affordable and long-lasting vehicles into the fleet Increases in private vehicle use and significant increases in commute times

Changing Family Patterns

In 1960 61% of the households had: a father working outside the home, a homemaker mother, and three children In 2000 67% of households are not nuclear family: 28 % are married with no children at home 26% are living alone 13% are other related or unrelated

Changing Workforce

In 1960, there were 64.7 million workers, or 36% of the population.

38 percent of women work, but few women with young children work Majority of families have one worker In 2000 there were128.3 million workers, or 46% of the population.

61 percent of women work, including two-thirds of women with children under 6.

Shift to dual-earner families

Added People by Decade

Millions of People

33 28 24 23 22 1950 - 1960 1960 - 1970 1970 - 1980 1980 - 1990 1990-2000

Added Workers per Decade

Millions of people

19.8

18.5

13.2

12.2

1960 - 1970 1970 - 1980 1980 - 1990 1990 - 2000

Added Population and Workers in Major Metro Areas

Suburbs and Central 1960 - 2000 C.C. Workers C.C. Population Suburban Workers Suburban Population

0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000

Vehicle Availability

Households are getting smaller with more vehicles…

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

1960 Vehicles per Household Persons per household 1970 1980 1990 2000

A LOT more Vehicles …

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1990 Three or More Two Vehicle One Vehicle Zero Vehicle

120.0

Leads to more cars on the road…

Millions of Workers commuting by POV

112.7

99.6

100.0

81.3

80.0

59.7

60.0

41.4

40.0

20.0

0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

But the likelihood of owning a car varies by race and place… Percent of Households without Vehicles

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1975 ` 1980

Year

1985 1990 All Households Black/ African American Households All Hispanic Households 1995 2000

One-fifth of zero-vehicle households…

U.S. Total U.S. w/o NY

1980 2000

13.10% 10.30% 11.31% 8.80%

…are in New York CMSA

Means of Travel

Commuting in America (U.S. Total)

1960 and 2000

Private Vehicle Public transportation Walked Other means

2000 1960

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Means of Commuting in 2000

75.7 percent of workers nationwide reported driving alone to work (compared to 73.2% in 1990). The proportion is higher in major MSAs (77.7%).

12.2 percent of workers reported carpooling, followed by transit (4.7 percent), work at home (3.3 percent), and walk (2.9 percent).

Carpooling declined from 13.4 percent (1990) to 12.2 percent (2000) of all workers.

Carpool to Work

Change in Percent, 1990-2000 Legend Change in Percent of workers who carpooled to work -6.5- -4 -3.9 - -1.5

-1.4 - -0.5

-0.5 - 0.5

0.5 - 1.5

Universe:

Workers: All Workers 16 years and older

Data Sources:

2000 Census “Demographic Profiles” 1990 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)

Percentage Point Increase in Drive Alone Share by Growth Rate –1980 to 2000

14.00

1980 - 1990 1990 - 2000 12.00

10.00

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00

High Med Low

-1.00

-1.50

-2.00

-2.50

-3.00

Percentage Point Decline in Transit Share by Growth Rate – 1980 to 2000

1980 - 1990 1990 - 2000 0.00

High

-0.50

Med Low

Transit Commutes in Major MSAs

The share of commutes by transit dropped slightly (5.3 percent in 1990 and 4.7 percent in 2000) BUT, in numbers workers using transit remained about the same (6 million workers) New York CMSA accounts for 38 percent (2.25 million) of all workers using transit in the whole country (w/ a 25% mode share) From 1990-2000, Las Vegas, Portland, and Seattle gained most in percent of transit commuters

Transit to Work

Change in Number of Workers, 1990-2000 Legend Transit Ridership Change -100000 - -25000 -24999 - -10000 -9999 - 10000 10001 - 25000 25001 - 100000

Note:

Modes included in transit for 1990 are Bus or trolley bus; Streetcar or trolley car; Subway or elevated; and Railroad.

Universe:

Workers: All Workers 16 years and older

Data Sources:

2000 Census “Demographic Profiles” 1990 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)

People take transit for many purposes… Other 12% School/Church 12% Work 35% Visit/Soc 18% Shop/Errands 23% ….Census Captures Commuting

Are there any “Usual” days?

”

Usual” Mode is On Travel Day Took:

Drove Alone Drove Alone 90.0% Drove w/ Others Took Transit Walked Biked No Report/ Other 9.3% 74.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Carpool 22.2% 1.0% 69.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% Transit 7.8% 9.7% 10.1% 79.5% 0.5% 2.5% Walk 8.1% 9.2% 2.6% 0.2% 77.1% 0.4% Bike 6.7% 8.4% 1.7% 6.1% 0.0% (comparison of ‘usual’ mode with mode on the travel day, 2001 NHTS)

Travel Time

A Real Shift to Longer Commutes…

In 2000, the average travel time to work was 25 minutes 30 seconds as compared to 22 minutes 23 seconds in 1990. 15 percent of workers in the nation now commute more than 45 minutes to work (1990, 12 percent).

40 percent of commuters in major Metro Areas travel over 30 minutes.

Population Change (%) and Change in Average Travel Time (min) to Work

1990-2000 Legend Less than 2 min.

Change in Avg.

Travel Time

2 – 3 min.

More than 3 min.

% Population Change Universe:

Workers: All Workers 16 years and older

Data Sources:

2000 Census “Demographic Profiles” 1990 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)

Worker Change (%) and Change in Average Travel time (min) to Work

1990-2000 Legend Less than 2 min.

Change in Avg.

Travel Time

2 – 3 min.

More than 3 min.

% Worker Change Universe:

Workers: All Workers 16 years and older

Data Sources:

2000 Census “Demographic Profiles” 1990 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)

The longest commute time is… MSAs with the longest travel time: New York MSA (34.0 minutes); Washington, DC (31.7 minutes); Atlanta (31.2 minutes), and Chicago (31.0 minutes) In 1990, the top 3 MSAs were – New York City (30.0 minutes); Washington, DC (28.2 minutes), and Chicago (27.9 minutes) Workers in Atlanta reported the largest increases since 1990, with an increase of 5.2 minutes

People in Metro Areas Travel Longer to Work

100 2000: 49 MSAs 2000: Rest of the country 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 at home < 5 min 5 - 9 min 10 - 14 min 15 - 19 min 20 - 24 min 25 - 29 min 30 - 34 min 35 - 39 min 40 - 44 min 45 - 59 min 60 - 89 min 90 or more min

Travel time to work

More commuters are traveling 45 minutes or more in large metro areas…

20.0% High Growth Areas All Large Metros 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

1980 1990 2000

Change in Distribution of Travel Time

High Growth and Low Growth Areas 1980 - 2000 High Growth Low Growth

30-44mins 45-59mins

5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4

< 5 mins 5-9 mins 10-14mins 15-19mins 20-29mins >60 mins

Changes in family structure, workforce and vehicle availability primarily effected mode choice in the 1980s People may have shifted to POV and drive alone to save travel time

In the 1990s travel times have really shown significant increases…how will people respond?

Expect a shift in departure times as workplaces become more flexible and people try to minimize their travel time.

What does the future hold?

The long-form Census data are a valuable resource for understanding trends in commuting in the nation, states, and local communities. There is research currently programmed to examine the effects of moving to ACS.

The amount of time in travel to work may indicate the effects of a better economy, sprawl, congestion, etc. Further research is necessary at small geography to untangle some of these issues.

Journey-to-Work Trends Report will be released in early summer. Its been a blast!