World War III

Predicting the Fate of the World System

I. The World System

A.

B.

Composed of states (see textbook) Characteristics 1. Number of units – Figure 3.1

a.

b.

Increased Uncertainty Increased War?

2. Distribution of Power a.

b.

Major vs. Minor Powers Concentration of Power: depends on measurement

0.9

Sum of cap CINC Scores as measures of power concentration, 1816-2000 0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

abbrev USA UKG RUS JPN IND GMY GFR GDR FRN CHN AUH 0 1816 1824 1832 1840 1848 1856 1864 1872 1880 1888 1896 1904 1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 year

I. The World System

A.

B.

Composed of states (see textbook) Characteristics 1. Number of units – Figure 3.1

a.

b.

Increased Uncertainty Increased War 2. Distribution of Power a.

b.

Major vs. Minor Powers Concentration of Power: depends on measurement 3. Political Organization a.

Anarchy vs. Hierarchy – Figure 4.2

b. Polarity and Leadership

GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS

UNIPOLAR WORLD BIPOLAR WORLD

GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS

MULTIPOLAR WORLD

Is the world unipolar?

 Depends on definition: capabilities, political influence, or leadership?

• What makes a state stronger?

• What gives a state influence?

Economic, Demographic, and Military Capabilities in the 21 st Century USA PRC India Russia Japan Germany UK France CINC 2001 GDP B 2002

14.9% $10,138 13.4%

$5732*

6.8% 5.4% 5% 2.8% 2.3% 1.9%

$2695 $1142 $3261 $2172 $1511 $1554 Pop M 2003 292

1296

1069 146 128 83 59 60 Mil $ 2002

$399

$47** $16** $65 $43 $25 $38 $30 * Some believe China overstates its GDP ** Somewhat higher if PPP data used Nukes 2003 10,650 400 40

18,200

0 0 200 350

Is the world unipolar?

  Depends on definition: capabilities, political influence, or leadership?

• What makes a state stronger?

• What gives a state influence?

Most dramatic differences between US and rest: military spending and global reach

Spending 700.00

600.00

500.00

400.00

300.00

200.00

100.00

0.00

Uni te d S tat es Chi na Rus si a Fr Uni anc te d K e ing do m Jap an G er m an y S Ita out ly h K or ea In di a i A ra bi a A us tral ia Turk ey S aud B raz il S pai n Can ada Is rae l Neth er lan ds Tai wan Me xi co G ree S ce ing ap or e S we de Nor n th K or ea Iran Spending

Military Spending: US (FY 2008) vs. Rest of World Chile North Korea Singapore Kuwait Colombia Greece Netherlands Israel Canada Spain Brazil Turkey Australia Saudi Arabia India South Korea Italy Germany Japan United Kingdom France Russia China United States

3 3 2

c. Alliances and Polarization

9 3 3 2 9 5 5 WEAKLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD STRONGLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD

II. General Wars in History

A. Habsburgs and Universal Empire 1494-1559 1. Italian Wars (1494-1515): France vs. Spain (Habsburgs)  France vs. Holy League (Spain, England, Papal States, Venice) 2. French vs. Habsburgs (1521-1529, 1536-1538) 3. French and Ottomans vs. Habsburgs and England (1542 1546, 1552-1559) 

B. Dutch Independence (1568-1609) 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

1570s – 1600s: Dutch Revolt vs. Hapsburgs (Spain) 1585: England Intervenes vs. Hapsburgs  Spanish Armada (1588)  Stalemate French Protestants Aid Dutch Rebels 1590s: Spanish intervention in French religious wars Spain defeated in France (1590s)

C. Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648) 1.

2.

3.

a.

Protestants vs. Catholics Stages: Hapsburgs (Spain, Holy Roman Empire) vs. German Protestants b.

c.

Fear of Hapsburg unity –> anti-Hapsburg intervention (France, England, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden) Worldwide: Dutch vs. Portuguese and Spanish a.

b.

c.

Ending = Peace of Westphalia (book) Hapsburg Power Limited (Territorial States) French Gains  Collapse of Holy Roman Empire Dutch naval dominance

D. Anglo-Dutch Wars (1652-1679) 1.

2.

3.

4.

England and France vs. Netherlands Worldwide, but not very bloody Dutch colonies lost Renewal of Anglo-French competition

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

E. War of the Grand Alliance (1688 1696) France invades Germany (1688) League of Augsburg (Spain, Sweden, German states) opposes France 1689: Grand Alliance formed vs. France (Austria, England, Netherlands, Spain, Germans) “King William’s War” in America French naval power destroyed, but France gains in Europe

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

F. War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714) Hapsburg King of Spain dies – After partition fails, France claims throne France, Spain, Bavaria, Portugal, Savoy vs. new Grand Alliance (England, Holland, Austria, other German states) “Queen Anne’s War” in America France agrees never to unite with Spain English power increases dramatically

1.

2.

3.

4.

G. War of the Austrian Succession (1739-1748) Hapsburg Heir to Austria dies  Succession crisis German states attack Austria (Saxon, Bavarian, Silesian Wars) a. France aids German states  War (1744-1748) Franco-Austrian b. Britain, Netherlands, Austria vs. France and Spain “King George’s War” in America France fails in objectives; Hapsburgs win

1.

2.

3.

H. Seven Years’ War (1756-1763) French-English rivalry meets Austrian-Prussian competition a. France and Native American allies attack English colonies (1755) b. Prussia declares neutrality in French-English war c. France responds by aiding Austria against Prussia d. Alliances: France, Austria, Russia, Saxony, Sweden, Spain vs. Prussia, Britain, Hanover More global than previous wars a. French and Indian War in America b. War in India and Southeast Asia Results a. France loses Quebec, India and other areas to Britain b. Austria loses in Europe c. Prussia becomes Great Power d. Expenses  American Revolution and renewed French British war

1.

2.

3.

I. Wars of the French Revolution and Napoleon (1792-1815) War of the First Coalition (1792-1798): England, Spain, Austria, Prussia, Sardinia vs. France a. Reaction to executions, threat of revolution b. France wins in Continental Europe, but England keeps fighting War of the Second Coalition (1798 1802): England, Russia, Austria, Turkey vs. France a. Triggered by French gains in Italy, Germany b. Rise of Napoleon French-British War (1803-1805)

a.

b.

c.

d.

3. War of the Third Coalition (1805 1807) Britain, Russia, Austria, Sweden vs. France and Spain Austria surrenders unconditionally French-Spanish fleet destroyed (Trafalgar) Napoleon gains Poland, most of Germany. Forced alliance with Austria.

4. Continued Napoleonic Wars

a.

b.

c.

d.

Peninsular War (1807-1812): Napoleon vs. Portugal, Britain, and Spanish guerillas Austro-French War (1809): Austria defeated again Franco-Russian War (1812): Severe defeat for Napoleon War of 1812 (to 1814): United States vs. Britain

5. Allies vs. Napoleon (1812-1815) a. 1812-1814: Napoleon defeated; return to 1793 status quo b. Napoleon’s Return (1815): France defeated, punished

6. Results

a.

b.

c.

British supremacy at sea Congress of Vienna: i. Russia, Prussia gain territory ii. Austria gains in Germany and Italy iii. “Congress System” “Eastern Question”

J. Crimean War (1854-1856)

1.

2.

3.

Russia vs. Turkey  Intervention by France, Britain, Piedmont-Sardinia Limited War: Crimea and Baltic coasts Results a. Russia concedes before war becomes general b. Concert of Europe c. Power vacuum against Austria and France, German unification)  Rise of Prussia (Wars

K. World War I (1914-1919)

1.

Prewar: Multipolar but Polarized system Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria Hungary, Italy) vs. Triple Entente (Britain, Russia, France) 2. Threat of Hapsburg collapse after assassination  A-H vs. Serbia A-H  Russia France Britain Germany vs.    Russia vs. Germany vs. Germany vs.

3. Europe at War: Central Powers vs. Allies

4. Results of World War I a.

b.

c.

d.

e.

Final collapse of Hapsburgs End of “Eastern Question” Destruction of German naval challenge Relative decline of Europe League of Nations

L. World War II (1939-1945)

1.

2.

3.

4.

Germany and Italy vs. Britain and France (1939-1941) Japan vs. China (1937-1941) Soviet and American entry (1941) Allies (USA, USSR, Britain, France, China) vs. Axis (Germany, Italy, Japan) Results i.

Five victorious “Great Powers” but only two superpowers ii. Beginning of Cold War – and “Long Peace” iii. Nuclear weapons

M. Summary of General Wars War Years Side A Various Dutch Indep.

Thirty Years’ Anglo-Dutch 1652-1679 England, France Grand Alliance 1688-1696 France Spanish Succ.

1701-1714 France, Spain Austrian Succ. 1739-1748 France, Spain Seven Years’ 1494-1559 France 1568-1609 England, France, Holland 1618-1648 England, France, Holland 1756-1763 France, Austria, Russia, Spain Napoleonic Crimean World War I World War II 1792-1815 France, Spain 1854-1856 France, Britain 1914-1918 France, Britain, Russia, USA 1939-1945 France, Britain, USSR, USA, China Side B Hapsburgs, England Hapsburg Spain Hapsburgs Holland Hapsburgs, Britain Hapsburgs, Britain Hapsburgs, Britain Britain, Prussia Britain Russia Germany, Austria Germany, Italy, Japan

III. The War that Wasn’t: The Cold War A.

US vs. USSR: The world chooses sides

B. Impact of Nuclear Weapons

1.

Destructiveness of a single weapon  Example: 100 KT Surface Blast, Fort Hood Main Gate  100 KT = larger explosion than WW II atomic bombs but much less powerful than many 1950s weapons

15 psi: Virtually all dead 5 psi: 50% dead, 45% injured 2 psi: 5% dead, 45% injured) 1 psi: 25% injured

Compare: 1 MT Surface Blast

Compare: 20KT Surface Blast

Example: 100 KT Surface: Fallout

2. Effects of full-scale nuclear war a. Immediate Deaths

b. Fallout

b. Fallout

b. Fallout

c. “Nuclear Winter”

Controversial theory condemned as “defeatist” by Cold Warriors

C. Nuclear Crises

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

Iran 1946 Berlin Blockade 1948-1949 Korea 1950-1953 Quemoy-Matsu 1954 and 1958 Berlin Wall 1961 Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 Vietnam 1969 October War 1973

1.

D. Pervasiveness of US-Soviet Competition Popular culture

a. US images of Communism



b. Communist Images of the US

“Freedom, American style”

b. Communist Images of the US

 “Two worlds two goals. We are planning new life. They are planning death.”

b. Communist Images of the US

 “This is freedom?”

b. Communist Images of the US

 “Vietnam. How America Exports ‘Human Rights.’”

b. Communist Images of the US

 “Stop the killers!”

b. Communist Images of the US

b. Communist Images of the US

 “A Christmas present for the people”

b. Communist Images of the US

 “What dangerous madness!”

b. Communist Images of the US

 “Myth – and reality.”

2. Fallout Shelters and Civil Defense

3. Nuclearphilia

  While the public was nuclearphobic, many elites (scientists, politicians, military leaders) were nuclearphilic Need a few examples?

Meet Davy Crockett…the recoilless rifle with a nuclear warhead

The nuclear landmine (MADM)…

…and a nuclear depth charge

The nuclear arms race

 Quotes on nuclear war “The bombing of Hiroshima was the greatest event in world history since the birth of Jesus Christ.” • - Senator Brien "Mr. Atom" McMahon, 1952  “Everybody's going to make it if there are enough shovels to go around. Dig a hole, cover it with a couple of doors, and then throw three feet of dirt on top. It's the dirt that does it!” • - T.K. Jones, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Strategic and Nuclear Forces, 1982.

 "I do not consider the atomic bomb as such a serious force. Atomic bombs are intended to frighten people with weak nerves." • - Joseph Stalin  "Only the imperialists will perish in an Atomic war." • - V.Molotov, 1949

1.

2.

3.

E. Termination

Soviets abandon bipolarity: Desire to cut off allies and reduce military spending Soviet Union disintegrates: Component republics secede under new political elites generated by internal reforms US influence expands: West Germany absorbs East Germany, NATO expands into former Soviet sphere of influence

III. Theories of World War

A.

Long Cycle of Leadership 1. Phases of the cycle a.

b.

World Power – Single dominant state with global reach Delegitimation – Other states recover from the global war, seek increased influence c.

d.

Global War Deconcentration – Challengers and the leader build coalitions Global War – The new leader is decided, as one state emerges with dominant global reach Deconcentration Delegitimation World Power

2. Global Reach

 Naval power is key: definition changes over time

3. Evidence: Cycles of War?

 Deaths in major power wars:

Scope of wars

4. Predictions

 Global war: 2030

B. Power Transition

1.

Assumptions a. System Level: World is Hierarchic DOMINANT POWER MAJOR POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS

Region Level: Multiple hierarchies model

b. Dyad Level: Challenger vs. Dominant Power Preemptive war by Dom War by Challenger to change SQ Challenger

P o w e r

Dominant

Unstable t

i.

ii.

c. State Level: What creates transitions?

Existence of challenger: status quo evaluations Rise of challenger: development curve

2. Measuring Power

a.

b.

GNP  Ultimately reduces to population!

Relative Political Capacity – Taxes

3. Evidence

1920-2000

Evidence: Summary

4. Predictions

Predictions (continued)

Predictions (continued)

C. Hegemonic Stability Theory

1.

Assumptions: Primarily Economic Theory a. Depressions  Major Wars b. International Economic Cooperation Prevents Depressions

Assumptions

c. Public Goods Theory: i.

World Economy as “Public Good:” Cannot exclude countries from existing in a prosperous world ii.

iii.

Problem: World economic stability costs money (currency stability, free trade/lost jobs, military intervention, international law, etc.) – but no one wants to pay since their contributions won’t make a difference!

Free Riding: Enjoying benefits of stable world economy without paying costs d. Hegemony: When a single state… i.

CAN pay the costs of world economic stability ii.

iii.

MUST pay those costs or stability won’t be provided is WILLING to pay those costs because the benefits to itself outweigh the costs

e. State level: “Law of Uneven Growth”

2. Historical Applicability

 Theory doesn’t apply before 18 th century, according to HST proponents • Why?

a. Economic Growth is Recent

Growth of World Real GDP per Person

1,000% 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 –100 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th 21st Century

b. Increasing Importance of Trade

3. Evidence

a.

Free Trade i.

Napoleonic Wars: Challenge to British Hegemony (Continental System) – Consistent ii. 1815-1840: Increased Protectionism: Corn Laws, etc – Inconsistent iii. 1840s-1850s: Rise of free trade in Britain - Consistent iv. 1860s-1880s: Rise of free trade in Europe, i.e. Cobden-Chevalier Treaty (1860) -- Consistent

v. Free Trade and US Hegemony YEAR ------- 1940 1946 1950 1960 1970 1975 1984 AVERAGE US TARIFF RATE -------- 36% 25% 13% 12% 10% 6% 5% AVERAGE WORLD TARIFF --------- 40% - 25% 17% 13% - 5%

b. Economics and War

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0

-8.0

-10.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

Europe's GNP growth rate, 1856-1913

Five-year moving average

c. US Hegemonic Decline?

IV. Can World War Be Avoided?

A.

B.

Nuclear weapons? Israel 1973… Interdependence?

"International finance has become so interdependent and so interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient."

Interdependence?

  Exports as % of GDP • 1913: 13% • 1992: 14% FDI as % of GDP • 1914: 11% • 1993: 11%  British-German trade was high • Lloyd’s insured Germany’s ships!

C. A Democratic Peace?

5 0 30 15 10 25 20

Percentage of all countries rated as democratic (with Polity III score above 6 out of 10), 1800-1913