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Higher Education: Trends and
Challenges
by Dr. Jarl Bengtsson
Counsellor and Head of the Centre for Educational
Research and Innovation (CERI), OECD
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OECD 30 countries covering the 3 main geo-economic parts
of the world, i.e. EU, NAFTA, and the Pacific;
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E in OECD means economics not education;
Work on education at OECD horizontally linked to the
economy, labour market, science and technology
Education priority for OECD;
OECD Secretary-General Mr. D. Johnston “Education
should be the priority of priorities”;
Education priorities for OECD Ministers of Education:
•1996 Lifelong learning for all
•2001 Investment in competencies for all
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Presentation is set out in three parts
• Higher education -- some basic trends
• Challenges for higher education in the new
millenium
• After the Humboldt university tradition: what
is next?
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Higher Education - Some Basic Trends
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OECD Education at a Glance: the
reference for international comparison
•input data
•process data
•output data
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•Participation in Higher Education OECD
countries
• 1 in 4 young people enter higher
education
• 20% growth 1990-97 in all but 5 OECD
countries
• in 8 countries more than 50%
(Data from Education at a Glance 2000, OECD)
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•Success and failure in higher education
•On average, 1/3 of all entrants leave
without completing a degree
•Great variations between countries:
•Japan, UK: 80-100% complete courses
•U.S. Germany: 60-80%
•France, Portugal, Turkey: 40-60%
•Italy: 20-40%
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•Funding and spending in education general
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in general most public but increasingly private
funding
•77: public
•23% private
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public expenditure on education grew faster than
GDP in most OECD countries during the 90s
from 5.2% to 5.8% of GDP
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• Spending on higher education grew
fastest during 90s but enrolment even
more so:
• spending growth on average 28%
• but enrolments increased by 40%
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• Average spending per student in US dollars:
•Early childhood………………..3463
• Primary………………………..3851
•Lower secondary……………….4791
•Upper secondary………………..5790
•Tertiary (non university)………..7295
•University……………………….8434
Denmark - 1.5 more on higher education than on
primary; the US, Mexico, Australia, and Ireland 3
times more.
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• Returns to higher education
• great individual returns “ University premium”
ranging from 20-40% (Australia, Denmark and
Sweden) to 80-100% (Portugal and USA)
• but greater social returns to secondary education social returns (i.e. better health, lower crime,
economic growth and social cohesion) are generally
higher from upper secondary education than
university education*
*Human Capital Investment, OECD, 1998
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• The global picture of higher education
•Gross enrolment 1990s*
•secondary education in developing countries 54%
•secondary education in OECD countries
100%
•tertiary level in developing countries
9%
•tertiary level in OECD countries
64%
*Human development Report 2001, UNDP
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• High quality /quantity of secondary education needed for
increasing enrolment in higher education - ex. Singapore,
Korea, Japan, Hong Kong
• Importance of SMT subjects (science, maths, technology)
i.e. four “ tigers” 3 million students of which 1 million in
SMT
• Where to find resources to finance campus-based higher
education in less developed countries? (2-3% of age cohort
to 25-30% of age cohort)
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• The advantages of international comparisons in
education
• move the debate towards an assessment of
outcomes rather than inputs like education budgets
• provide benchmarking measures for counties ‘
own progress and in comparasion to others
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Challenges for higher education in the
new millenium
• The emerging knowledge economy
•different interpretations of new economy
•casino
•new synergy; old and new economics
•knowledge-based economy
•knowledge the driving force in the new economy (OECD
growth project)
•huge returns to its investment, particularly if coupled to
take full advantage of ICT
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• The emerging knowledge economy (continued)
• Private sector competition from access to new
technology through best trained work force to
competition in knowledge production, mediation and
use.
• Competition in explicit and tacit knowledge
• A new dilemma between sharing knowledge and
intellectual property rights
• The bottom line - university knowledge monopoly
coming to an end.
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• Internationalisation of higher education and the
penetration of ICT
•trade in education services WTO/OECD
•e-learning and an emerging international market
of higher education
•quality control and assessment in the new market
•OECD ongoing work through fora involving four
stakeholders: government; university; private
sector; and students
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• Demographic development and the imperative of lifelong
learning in higher education
• OECD countries ageing population, but produce 70%
of world goods and services with 16% of world
population
• age structure of population: 1950-2050*:
Elderly share:
1950
2050
OECD
8% 25-30%
Developing countries 0.3%
15%
Youth share:
1950
2050
OECD
27%
15%
Developing countries
38%
20%
*UN Population Prospects 1050-2050, UN, 1998)
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• Demographic development and the imperative of lifelong
learning in higher education (continued)
• 2025 most students in higher education above 25 years
of age
• major challenge for higher education in lifelong learning
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• Partnership
• Difference in R&D spending public/private sectors
• 75% private
• 25% public
• The need for partnership in research
• The need for links between research and teaching also
through partnerships
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After the Humboldt university tradition, what is next?
• 800 years of history and experience
• From teaching university through research university to a
new challenge of services to society
• the teaching university - young students of school age,
main function conservative, to safeguard received
knowledge and provide elite training, limited number
subjects
• the research university - the 19th century scientific
revolution, mature student, unlimited search for truth in
many subjects. The Humboldt tradition is born
• the addition of the objective of providing services to
society in second part of the 20th century
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• The critical issue of university governance - New partners of
the Board
• Academic freedom and academic responsibility - the need for
a new balance
• 800 years thanks to support from society
• “If institutional autonomy and academic freedom are
regarded as absolute requirements, then the future is
hopeless”.*
* Professor Sheldon Rothblatt, University of California, Berkeley and Royal Institute of Technology,
Stockholm, “ Academic Freedom and Institutional Autonomy in Historical Perspective, 1999
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• Towards a new balance between freedom and responsibility
- two principles:
• First, ease the internal differences between disciplinary
have and have-nots. Avoid that the house will be
ruinously divided;
• Second, the best guarantee of institutional initiative and
freedom is a healthy engagement with all parts of society
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• What is next? Two key forces shaping future higher
education:
• Changing demand
•from teaching to learning;
•from young students to mature students
•from long to many shorter courses over the individuals lifecycle
•from national to international markets for higher education
• The knowledge economy
•competition in knowledge production and mediation
•the private sector university initiative with ambition of high
quality but less costly
•from mode 1 to mode 2 type of research
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• Who will survive and how?
• Elite universities
• the need for a niche along the three key objectives,
teaching, research and services
• from knowledge monopoly and privileges to
knowledge sharing and actions with value-added
ethical responsibility
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