Transcript Diapositiva 1

Migration in the Americas: social
insurance and management
challenges
Workshop on Labor Migration and Labor
Market Information System
Quebec City, Canada
February 24-25, 2009
Our topics for today:

What is going to happen with migratory
flows?

How will social insurance respond?
 Policy
 Administration

The Mercosur development
• The rate increase in the labor force will remain high for many years to come
• This is due to the large birth cohorts of the eighties and nineties entering the market, and
to many more working women.
Labor Force Participation Rate
Men
Women
50
85
45
80
40
Percentage
70
35
30
65
25
60
20
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
15
55
1960
Percentage
75
Andean
Central America
Andean
Central America
Southern Cone
North America and British Caribbean
Southern Cone
North America and British Caribbean
Mexico and the Latin Caribbean
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2004)
Mexico and the Latin Caribbean
Migration is an important social and economic
phenomenon for many small and large countries of the
region:
• Temporary and return migration has become much more
common, causing a larger increase in gross flows that in net
flows.
• The Americas will continue to be an important place for
migration, particularly for within-continent, where Canada,
United States and Argentina will remain as net receivers of
migration for the next half century.
In the United States the main sources of temporary
workers are in the Americas
Temporary Workers in the United States, 2002
Asia
15,356
13,369
12,949
16,639
157,437
34,421
12,727
12,108
10,695
260,318
Europe
Oceania
Africa
Mexico
Canada
The Americas
94,837
168,849
65,522
Jamaica
Colombia
Brazil
Venezuela
Argentina
Source: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (2002)
Others
The increasing migration is accompanied by an increase in the
migration rate of high skilled individuals
Migration (living OECD)
59
60
50
42
40
30
Percentage
Millions of people
Share of migrants by skill level
70
70
60
30
10
10
0
0
2000
Changes in the participation in the world labor
force, 1990-2000
Percentage
-2.5
Low skilled
workers
29.8
34.6
1990
2000
Stock of skilled workers
1.8
High skilled
workers
25.3
40
20
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
29.0
50
20
1990
Percentage
Tertiary
Secondary
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Tertiary
Other
34.6
11.3
Migration stock
World labor
force
It is not easy to forecast the future even for very basic variables:
Keyfitz (1981) evaluated more than 1,100 forecasts of population growth
made between 1939 and 1960.

There were systematic errors across countries.

A review or more recent projections shows basically the same results.

For example, the latest UN projections:

Have adjusted growth for 2050 in more than a billion, and for
2100 in more than two billions.

For shorter intervals, in 1992 the UN projected a population for
North America of 330 million in 2050, but the most recent
forecast is 448 million.

In a complementary fashion, Latin America and the Caribbean
“lose” 17 and 32% of their populations for 2050 and 2100.
Projected population sizes of major world regions, 2000-2100
United Nations medium scenario
(millions)
2050
5,222
768
1,803
632
448
46
8,919
2100
5,019
733
2,254
538
474
46
9,064
Change in projections between 1992 and 2003 versions
Asia
-1%
-7%
Latin America and the Caribbean
-4%
-17%
Africa
-9%
-20%
Europe
-11%
-27%
Northern America
9%
36%
Oceania
3%
15%
World
-3%
-11%
-16%
-32%
-23%
-37%
53%
15%
-19%
Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean
Africa
Europe
Northern America
Oceania
World
2000
3,680
520
796
728
316
31
6,071
2150
4,651
675
2,083
550
490
45
8,494
2200
4,682
681
2,008
574
509
45
8,499
2250
4,824
703
2,060
594
523
47
8,751
2300
4,943
723
2,113
611
534
48
8,972
Source: McNicoll, Geoffrey. "The United Nations Long-Range Population Projections." Population and Development Review, Vol. 18, No. S (Jun., 1992): 333-340.
The United Nations on World Population in 2300. Population and Development Review, Vol. 30, No. 1. (Mar., 2004): 181-187.
Conclusions (1/2)
Uncertainty about the more likely evolution of society has not made any easier to improve
social protection for migrants.

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Unfortunately there is also lack of advance in multilateral forums

See the difficulties governments face in achieving agreements in Seattle
(1999), Cancun (2003) and Geneva (2006)

The risk is that the space for global governance can end up being
occupied by institutions that leave the weakest nations at the margin
Within the complexity of global politics, the subject of social rights has proven to be one
of the most difficult


Basic social rights have been difficult to integrate with commercial
negotiations

Social security works on a territorial base, with rights and obligations
defined by national governments

Despite totalization agreements the great majority of international
migrants on the American continent are not covered by them
Data Transfers and
Validation System in Mercosur





The Mercosur agreement is multilateral.
It covers countries with a population of nearly one
quarter of the Continental population (200 million
out of 800).
Migration is high in the area.
A satisfactory administrative arrangement has also
been worked out.
In the NAFTA region, Central America and the
Caribbean, most migrants are not covered by
international social security agreements.

We have not dealt here with the issues surrounding
migratory laws and agreements, and social security
“totalization” and “double-taxation” agreements.

However. It is clear that new technologies allow
countries a radically improved administrative
management of migrants’ cases.

The administration of social security agreements can
also benefit substantially from the application of new
technologies.
Uncertain expectations

The bilateral way cannot go much farther without
the leadership of some of the large countries.

The multilateral way has advanced through the
Ibero-American Agreement.

Countries have begun linking the social
protection issue with the migration issue:

Questions related to human rights.

Issues on fairness of global economic system.