Transcript About the Flight Safety Foundation

2012 – The Year in Review
1
The Fleets - 2012
Type
Western Built Eastern Built
Turbojets
Turboprops
Total
21,479
1,065
22,544
4,817
1,195
6,012
Business Jets
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
17,642
Major Accidents
CFIT
LOC
Excursion
Commercial Jets
1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012
Date
Operator
Aircraft
B-737
Location
Phase
Fatal
Approach
127
Mount Salak,Indonesia
Enroute
45
20 April
Bhoja Airlines
9 May
Sukhoi
2 June
Allied Air
B-727
Accra, Ghana
Landing
0
3 June
Dana Air
MD-83
Lagos, Nigeria
Approach
153
30 Nov
Aero Service
IL-76
Brazzaville, Congo
Go Around
7
25 Dec
Air Bagan
F-100
Heho, Myanmar
Landing
1
29 Dec
Red Wings Airlines
TU-204
Moscow, Russia
Landing
5
SU-100
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Islamabad, Pakistan
Commercial Jet Major Accidents
2000 through 2012
20
19
15
10
16
13
19
19
13
17
17
14
13
11
5
7
2001
02 03
Eastern Built
Source: Ascend
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Major Accident Rate
Accident rate per million departures
Western-Built Commercial Jets
1999 – 2012
1.20
5 year running average
0.80
0.40
0.00
Major Accident Rate
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Ascend
Major Accidents
CFIT
LOC
Excursion
Commercial Jets
1 January 2013 to 10 April 2013
Date
29 January
Operator
SCAT Air
Aircraft
CRJ-200
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Location
Almaty, Kazakhstan
Phase
Fatal
Approach
21
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents
CFIT
Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats)
1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
Phase
Fatal
30 January
TRACEP
AN-28
Namoya, DRC
Enroute
3
2 April
Utair
ATR-72
Tyuman, Russia
Takeoff
31
9 April
Air Tanzania
DHC-8
Kigoma, Tanzania
Takeoff
0
28 April
Jubba Airways
AN-24
Galkayo, Somalia
Landing
0
14 May
Agni Air
DO-228
Jomsom, Nepal
Approach
15
6 June
Air Class Lineas Aereas
SW Metro III
Montevideo, Uruguay
Climb
2
10 June
Ukrainska Shkola Pilotov
LET - 410
Borodyanka, Ukraine
Enroute
5
20 June
ITAB
Gulfstream I
Pweto, DRC
Landing
0
19 August
ALFA Airlines
AN-24
Talodi, Sudan
Approach
32
22 August
Mombassa Air Safari
LET-410
Ngeredi, Kenya
Takeoff
4
12 Sept
PetropavlovskKamchatsky Air Enterprise
AN-28
Palana, Russia
Approach
10
28 Sept
Sita Air
DO-228
Katmandú, Nepal
Climb
19
7 October
Azza Transport
AN-12
Khartoum, Sudan
Enroute
13
19 October
Air Mark Aviation
AN-12
Shindand, Afghanistan
Landing
0
27 Nov
Inter Iles Air
EMB-120
Moroni, Comoros
Climb
0
17 Dec
Amazon Sky
AN-26
Tomas, Peru
Enroute
4
22 Dec
Perimeter Aviation
Metro III
Sanikiluaq, Canada
Approach
1
Commercial Turboprop Major Accidents
2000 through 2012
40
39
35
30
31
33
31
25.9 (12 years)
25
20
29
24
22
24
21.4 (5 years)
21
15
21
20
23
20
17
10
5
2001
02
Eastern Built
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents
CFIT
Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats)
1 January 2013 to 10 April 2013
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
Phase
Fatal
Enroute
3
23 Januray
Kenn Borek Air
DHC-6
Terra Nova Bay, Antarctia
13 February
South Airlines
AN-24
Donetsk, Ukraine
Approach
5
4 March
CAA
Fokker 50
Goma, DRC
Approach
7
8 March
ACE Air Cargo
Beech 1900
Anchorage, Alaska, USA
Approach
2
Major Accidents
Business Jets
1 January 2011 to 31 December 2011
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
Phase
Fatal
6 January
Priester Aviation
Lear -35
Springfield, IL, USA
Landing
0
4 February
Sky Lounge
Hawker 900
Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
Climb
7
18 February
Escuela de Aviacion
Lear 24
Villasana, Mexico
Landing
2
28 March
Hong Fei General
Citation II
Missing - China
Enroute
3
5 May
Jorda LLC
Approach
0
25 May
Jet Suite Air
EMB Phenom
Sedona, AZ, USA
Landing
0
29 November
Wings over Africa
Gulfstream II Huambo, Angola
Takeoff
0
HS-125
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Loreto Bay, Mexico
Major Accidents
Business Jets
1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Phase
Fatal
Pueblo, CO, USA
Takeoff
0
2 February
Extrapoint, LLC
12 February
Trident Aviation Svcs
Gulfstream IV
Bakavu-Kavumu, DRC
Landing
3
1 March
Asia Today, Ltd
Citation 750
Egelsbach, Germany
Approach
5
15 March
Private
Citation 501
Franklin-Macon, NC, USA
Landing
5
18 June
Triple C Devlopment
Beech 400
Atlanta,Gegoria, USA
Landing
0
13 July
Universal Jet Aviation
Gulfstream IV
Le Castellet, France
Landing
3
2 August
Airnor
Citation 500
Santiago de Compostela, Spain
Approach
2
15 Sept
Private
Lear 24
Bornholm, Denmark
Approach
0
18 Sept
Dewberry Air LLC
Beech 400
Macon, GA, USA
Landing
0
11 Nov
Tropic Air Taxi Aero
Citation 525
Sao Paulo, Brazil
Landing
0
17 Nov
US Customs
Citation 550
Greenwood SC, USA
Landing
0
9 December
Starwood Management
Iturbie, Mexico
Enroute
7
Oklahoma City, USA
Landing
0
21 December US Customs
Lear 35
Location
Lear 25
Citation 550
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Business Jet Major Accidents
2000 through 2012
20
15
10
14
8
5
15
14
10.5
9
8
12
13
11
8
7
2001
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
7
10
11
12
Business Jet Major Accident Rate
2000 through 2012
(Accidents per 1,000 Aircraft)
1.0
.75
8 Year Average:
.67
.50
4 Year Average:
.52
.25
2005 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Major Accidents
Business Jets
1 January 2013 to 10 April 2013
Date
Operator
Aircraft
20 February
The Vein Guys
Premier I
4 March
Global Jet Luxembourg
17 March
7700 Enterprises
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Location
Phase
Fatal
Thomson, GA, USA
Landing
5
Premier I
Annemasse, France
Takeoff
2
Premier I
South Bend, IA, USA
Approach
2
Approach and Landing Major Accidents
Commercial Jets
1 January 2012 through 31 December 2012
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
Phase
Fatal
Approach
127
20 April
Bhoja Airlines
B-737
Islamabad, Pakistan
2 June
Allied Air
B-727
Accra, Ghana
Landing
0
3 June
Dana Air
MD-83
Lagos, Nigeria
Approach
153
30 Nov
Aero Service
IL-76
Brazzaville, Congo
Landing
7
25 Dec
Air Bagan
F-100
Heho, Myanmar
Landing
1
29 Dec
Red Wings Airlines
TU-204
Moscow, Russia
Landing
3
Business Jet Major Accidents
2000 through 2012
63% of Business Jet Major Accidents
were Approach and Landing Accidents
20
ALA Accidents
15
14
15
14
13
10
8
8
5
6
8
9
5
8
9
8
7
12
7
7
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
8
6
5
4
2000
10.5
11
08
5
09 10
11
6.5
7
4
11
12
Controlled Flight into Terrain Major Accidents
Commercial Jets
1 January 2012 though 31 December 2012
Date
Operator
20 April
Bhoja Airlines
9 May
Sukhoi
25 Dec
Air Bagan
Sources: Honeywell (Don Bateman), Ascend
Aircraft
B-737
SU-100
F-100
Location
Phase
Fatal
Approach
127
Mount Salak,Indonesia
Enroute
45
Heho, Myanmar
Landing
1
Islamabad, Pakistan
Over the last 6 years, 23 of 82 turboprop
major accidents has been a CFIT– that’s
28%, or more than 1 of every 4 !
Upset Aircraft
Loss of Control
Unusual Attitudes
Lack of Control
Stall
Extended Envelope
Advanced Maneuvering
Upset Aircraft
Upset Aircraft Accident
An upset accident is an accident in which an aircraft
is upset and unintentionally flown into a position from
which the crew is unable to recover due to either
aircrew, aircraft, environmental, or a combination of
these factors.
•
•
•
•
Over 25 degrees nose up
Over 10 degrees nose down
Greater than 45 degrees bank
Airspeed inappropriate for conditions
Aircraft Upset Major Accidents
Commercial Jets
1 January 2012 through 31 December 2012
Date
Operator
Aircraft
Location
None in 2012
Phase Fatal
Aircraft Upset Major Accidents
Commercial Jets
1999 through 2012
Number of Accidents
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
6
0
4
0
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Upset Aircraft
- No good visual references
* IMC
* Night
* Over Water or lightless/featureless land
- Distraction involved
- Initial movement imperceptible (2 degrees/sec)
- Initial correction often in wrong direction
- One of crew has good or better SA – but
wait too long to correct the situation
- The pilot who got into the upset situation is the
least likely one to be able to recover from it
Stalls
1. #1 Factor: Angle of Attack
2. Low Speed warning systems ?
3. For airspeed issues --Pitch and Power
4. Modern aircraft know their AOA
Why doesn’t the crew ?
Runway Excursion
Data Update
Added 2007 - 2010
Data Base now
covers 16 Years
1995-2010
Runway Safety
Accident Data
1995 – 2010
Number
Incursions:
11
Confusion:
6
Excursions:
650
Average
(.7/year)
1.0/year
(.3/year)
40.6/Year
Other Challenges
- Functional Check Flights
- Unreliable Airspeed
Functional Check Flights
-
Symposium February 2011 - Vancouver
-
EASA Rulemaking on FCF (NPA published)
- FCF Steering Team
* Boeing
* Airbus
* Bombardier
* Embraer
* Gulfstream
-
FCF Compendium
• Introduction
• “Be Prepared” paper
• FCF Guidelines Document
- Preparation
- Ground Phase
- Flight Phase (25 Modules: e.g. Auto Pilot, Air Conditioning, APU)
• FCF Symposium Material
Unreliable Airspeed
The Issue
Historical and recent accidents and incidents have
highlighted the increased risk associated with unreliable
airspeed (URA) events
Industry Steering Group Formed
Created URA Philosophy and Guidelines
URA Philosophy
- The keys to successfully dealing with a URA event are
recognition, procedures, and training
- The aircrew’s recognition of and initial reaction to a URA
event are critical
- Manufacturers should attempt to ensure unreliable
airspeed events are clearly identifiable to aircrews
- The most important function of the aircrew during an in-
flight URA event is to maintain control over the aircraft’s
flight trajectory and energy situation by selection of
attitude and power settings so that the aircrafts flight
parameters remain within normal limits
URA Philosophy
- Crews should be aware of the instruments and critical
systems that are not affected by a URA event (e.g.
attitude displays, engines)
- Procedures and training for URA events should include
the effect of a URA event on other aircraft systems, and
potential alerts/warnings and indication system
inaccuracies that could be expected
- Crew coordination and communication are important
elements in successfully addressing a URA event
URA Guidelines
- URA procedures should provide information on attitude and power
settings that enable crews to maintain the aircrafts flight
parameters within normal limits during in-flight unreliable airspeed
events for all phases of flight
- URA procedures should address the availability and use of
independent alternate sources of airspeed information (e.g. GPS,
inertial, angle of attack, etc.)
- URA procedures should include memory items for critical immediate
action steps
- Training programs addressing URA should exist at beginning (ab
initio/MPL), initial, and recurrent levels
- URA training should include both simulator and academic phases
2012 Summary
Aviation Safety 2012
 Record year for commercial jets
 Record year for commercial turboprops
 Average year for business jets
CFIT continues to be a challenge – and it is
making a strong comeback as the leading killer
 There are many challenges out there, and FSF is
addressing many of them:
* Runway Excursions
* Upset Aircraft
* Functional Check Flights
* Unreliable Airspeed
Some Things to Think About
 Upset Aircraft not a major issue in business aviation
 CFIT not a major issue in business aviation
 ALA is a major issue in business aviation
- Over 75 % of accidents over last 4 years
- Majority of those were runway excursions
Data and Risk Management