Rogers W. Gardner II, Capt, USAF Centurions Flight C-37
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Transcript Rogers W. Gardner II, Capt, USAF Centurions Flight C-37
Venezuela
International Security Studies Briefing
Name
Date
Overview
Causes of Conflict
US Involvement
Forecast and Recommendations
Conclusion/Summary
Cause of Conflict
HUGO CHAVEZ
President of Venezuela
Cause of Conflict
Background on Chavez
Chavez serving second term as president
Attempted coup d’e`tat 4 Feb 92
Imprisoned and pardoned by Rafael Caldera ‘94
Founded MVR (Movimiento Quinta Republica) “V”
being Roman numeral five
Two attempts to unseat him:
2002 coup d’e`tat
2004 recall referendum
Views himself as focal point of opposition
Cause of Conflict
The driving cause of tension between Venezuela
and the U.S.
Chavez has formed some uncomfortable
alliances with Cuba, Russia, and Iran
Openly opposes US leadership
Cause of Conflict
OIL
Venezuela is having a huge impact on the
price of oil globally
Reduced oil extraction
Renegotiation w/oil comp.
OPEC to follow suit
$3 per gal is not sexy
Cause of Conflict
Chavez seizes Hurricane Katrina opportunity
1st gov’t to offer aid to U.S.
Tons of food and water
Mobile hospital units & medical specialists
Power generators
1 million barrels of petroleum
Proposed to sell 66K barrels of discounted heating fuel
The Bush administration refused this aid
Later agreed to purchase in Nov
Chavez strong oil card
Cause of Conflict
Background on Chavez
Driving cause of conflict
Global impact
Public perception
Meow City *
U.S. Involvement
Drug Trafficking
Both countries working a collaborative effort to combat
drugs (Diplomatic Instrument of Power)
US planned 700,000 for counter narcotics
(Economic instrument of power)
US provide military support to International Military
Education and Training in Venezuela
(Military Instrument of Power)
“Cocaine is a helluva drug” – Rick James
U.S. Involvement
Oil
US buys about two-thirds of Venezuela's oil
US involvement-Economic and Political
(Protecting our international and Economic interest)
Overthrowing Chavez
Attempts on his life
$3 per gal is not sexy
Future Expectations
Policy-makers changing
Combating rising oil prices
Limited Continuation of counter-drug
efforts
Removal from office or erased
Recommendations
No military actions at this time
Thorough use of political IOP
Continuously assess the situation and
adjust … sanctions, policy, procedures etc.
Can I recommend 2 bullets in his melon?
Summary
Causes of Conflict
US Involvement
Forecast and Recommendations
Conclusion/Summary