Transcript Rogers W. Gardner II, Capt, USAF Centurions Flight C-37

Venezuela
International Security Studies Briefing
Name
Date
Overview
 Causes of Conflict
 US Involvement
 Forecast and Recommendations
 Conclusion/Summary
Cause of Conflict
HUGO CHAVEZ
President of Venezuela
Cause of Conflict
Background on Chavez
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Chavez serving second term as president
Attempted coup d’e`tat 4 Feb 92
Imprisoned and pardoned by Rafael Caldera ‘94
Founded MVR (Movimiento Quinta Republica) “V”
being Roman numeral five
 Two attempts to unseat him:
 2002 coup d’e`tat
 2004 recall referendum
 Views himself as focal point of opposition
Cause of Conflict
 The driving cause of tension between Venezuela
and the U.S.
 Chavez has formed some uncomfortable
alliances with Cuba, Russia, and Iran
 Openly opposes US leadership
Cause of Conflict
 OIL
 Venezuela is having a huge impact on the
price of oil globally
 Reduced oil extraction
 Renegotiation w/oil comp.
 OPEC to follow suit
$3 per gal is not sexy
Cause of Conflict
 Chavez seizes Hurricane Katrina opportunity
 1st gov’t to offer aid to U.S.
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Tons of food and water
Mobile hospital units & medical specialists
Power generators
1 million barrels of petroleum
Proposed to sell 66K barrels of discounted heating fuel
 The Bush administration refused this aid
 Later agreed to purchase in Nov
 Chavez strong oil card
Cause of Conflict
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Background on Chavez
Driving cause of conflict
Global impact
Public perception
Meow City *
U.S. Involvement
 Drug Trafficking
 Both countries working a collaborative effort to combat
drugs (Diplomatic Instrument of Power)
 US planned 700,000 for counter narcotics
(Economic instrument of power)
 US provide military support to International Military
Education and Training in Venezuela
(Military Instrument of Power)
“Cocaine is a helluva drug” – Rick James
U.S. Involvement
 Oil
 US buys about two-thirds of Venezuela's oil
 US involvement-Economic and Political
(Protecting our international and Economic interest)
 Overthrowing Chavez
 Attempts on his life
$3 per gal is not sexy
Future Expectations
 Policy-makers changing
 Combating rising oil prices
 Limited Continuation of counter-drug
efforts
 Removal from office or erased
Recommendations
 No military actions at this time
 Thorough use of political IOP
 Continuously assess the situation and
adjust … sanctions, policy, procedures etc.
 Can I recommend 2 bullets in his melon?
Summary
 Causes of Conflict
 US Involvement
 Forecast and Recommendations
 Conclusion/Summary