Transcript California Water Plan Update 2003 and Beyond

California Water Plan
Update 2003
& Beyond
California Water and Environmental
Modeling Forum
Annual Meeting
February 25, 2004
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Talk Overview
• Part 1 - Preparing the Plan
• Part 2 - Developing a New Analytical
Framework for the California Water Plan
• Discussion
– Anatomy of Models
– CWEMF Role with Long Term Framework
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Part 1 – Preparing the Plan
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Water Plan Update Overview & Process
New Planning Framework
Limitations & Phased Work Plan
Content & Document Organization
Key Themes, Findings & Rec’d Actions
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Water Plan Overview
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Program 10 > 1 of 6 DWR Goals
Required by law (Water Code)
First Water Plan -Bulletin 3 (1957)
Seven Updates (Bulletin 160)
Update every five years
– Last in 1998
Next in 2003
• State’s Master or Strategic Plan
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California Water Plan
• Purpose
– Strategic plan for state policy/decision makers
– Guide for managing & developing CA water
– Framework for investing public funds
• Content
– Basic information - water resources & system
– Current water supplies and uses
– Scenarios for future supplies and use
– Recommendations (Strategies & State Role)
• Footnotes
– No mandates; No spending authorizations
– Not project or site specific; No CEQA
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Water Plan Update 2003
DWR Goals & Approach
• Goals
– Meet Water Code requirements
– Expand public input
– Develop a “useful” plan
• Approach
– Open & transparent public process
– Seek collaborative recommendations
– Strategic Planning model; New framework
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www.waterplan.water.ca.gov
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New Planning Framework
• 65-member Public Advisory Committee
• Water Portfolios using 1998, 2000, 2001 data
• Regional Reports reflecting regional
challenges, goals, and planning efforts
• Multiple Scenarios to identify and plan for
future uncertainties and risks
• Many Strategies to meet future water demands
while sustaining our resources and economy
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Issues & Challenges
• Significant data and information gaps
• Analytical tools for long-range planning
are not fully developed
• Revising process impacted schedule
• Reduced DWR staff & budget
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Phased Work Plan
• June 2004
– Public Review Draft of Water Plan Update
– Narratives of four 2030 Future Scenarios
– Short & Long-term Work Plan for Data & Tools
• December 2004
– Public Comment & Release Final Update
– Select methods to quantify 2030 Scenarios
• 2005 (Begins Update 2008)
– Conduct Quantitative Studies for 2030 Scenarios
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Five Volumes of Update
• Vol. 1 – Strategic Plan
– Findings, Recommendations & Implementation
• Vol. 2 – 25 Resource Mgmt Strategies
• Vol. 3 – 12 Regional Reports
– 10 Hydrologic Regions, Mt. Counties & Delta
• Vol. 4 – Reference Guide
– Supplemental articles
• Vol. 5 – Technical Guide (Electronic Only)
– Documentation for data, methods & tools
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Volume 1 – Strategic Plan
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Foreword & Users Guide
Executive Summary
Findings & Recommended Actions
Ch 1 – Plan Overview
Ch 2 – CA Water Today (Statewide View)
Ch 3 – Planning for an Uncertain Future
Ch 4 – Regional Integrated Resource Plng
Ch 5 – State Role & Responsibilities
Ch 6 – Implementation & Finance
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Volume 2
Resource Management Strategies
(Definition, Current Level, 2030 Potential & Cost,
Benefits, Issues & Recommendations)
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Agricultural Use Efficiency
Conj. Mgmt/GW Storage
Conveyance
Desalination
Drinking Water Treatment &
Distribution
6. Economic Incentives Policy
7. Ecosystem Restoration
8. Floodplain Management
9. Groundwater/Aquifer
Remediation
10. Matching WQ to Use
11. Pollution Prevention
12. Precipitation Enhancement
13. Recharge Area Protection
14. Recycled Municipal Water
15. Surface Storage – Bay-Delta
Program
16. Surface Storage –Region/Local
17. System Reoperation
18. Urban Land Use Management
19. Urban Runoff Management
20. Urban Water Use Efficiency
21. Water-Dependent Recreation
22. Water Transfers
23. Watershed Management
24. Working Lands Management
25. Other Strategies (R&D)
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Volume 3 - Regional Reports
Regional Perspective
• Outline
– Setting
– Existing “State of the Region”
– Looking to the Future
• Featuring
– Flow Diagrams, Water Balances for 1998, 2000 &
2001
– Water Quality summary
– Regional water planning efforts
– Examples of water management & restoration
programs
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Water Plan Vision for 2030
California has adequate, reliable
and sustainable water
of suitable quality
for all beneficial uses.
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Water Plan Goals for 2030
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Improved quality of life for projected 53 million Californians.
Sustained economic growth, business vitality and agricultural industry.
Protected and restored ecosystems.
Environmental justice for all Californians.
Stronger State leadership, coordination, and oversight and more public
investment.
Regions play the central role in integrated water & resource planning.
Local and regional planners diversify management strategies.
Local govmts and agencies improve coordination of land use planning
with water planning and management.
State-supported investigations, and R&D of promising new technologies.
Planners make more informed (less risky) decisions.
Fewer gaps in data & analytical tools; better access to information.
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Water Management Objectives
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Integrate & optimize management strategies
Provide water supply benefits
Increase drought resiliency
Improve water quality
Increase operational flexibility & efficiency
Improve flood control
Increase energy generation or reduce use
Increase recreation opportunities
Enhance instream, riparian or terrestrial ecosystems
Reduce groundwater overdraft
Reduce pollution
Reduce runoff, drainage or tailwater
Reduce uncertainty & risk
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Key Themes, Findings & Rec’d
• State leadership & oversight for statewide
assessments, protecting public assets;
doing what regions can’t do by and for
themselves
• State promote & assist regionally-based,
integrated, multi-resource planning
• State fill data/tool gaps & support R&D
• Regions diversify water portfolios choosing
from 25 resource management strategies
• Locals improve coordination of land use
planning with water planning/management
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3.5 to 6 MAF Additional Demands
for 2030 Current Trends Scenario
• To maintain QOL for 17 million more Californians
– Additional 2 - 3 million acre-feet
• To recover groundwater overdraft
– Additional 1 - 2 million acre-feet
• To protect & restore degraded ecosystems
– Additional 0.5 – 1 million acre-feet
• To sustain econ growth & agricultural industry
– About the same as now
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1-Page Version
Implementation and Investment Guide
Reduce Ag
Drainage Impact
Reduce
Pollution
Energy Benefits
Environmental
Benefits
Reduce Flood
Impacts
Operational
Flex & Efficient
Reduce GW
Overdraft
Implementation
and Investment
Guide to 2030
Estm
Cost
Recreational
Opportunities
DRAFT
1/30/2004
Draft 2-23-04
Potential
2030 Supply
Benefit
million ac-ft
Improve
Water Quality
Resource
Management
Strategy, Activity or
Program
Improve Drought
Preparedness
Water Management Objectives
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0.2 - 1.6
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Billion
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Note: Shaded boxes to be filled.
Implementation
Ag Lands Stewardship
Ag Use Efficiency
Conjunctive Mgmt &
GW Storage
Conveyance
Desalination (Brackish
Water)
Desalination
(Ocean Water)
Drinking Water
Treatment & Distrib.
Economic Incentives
Ecosystem Restoration
Floodplain Mgmt
GW/Aquifer Remediation
Matching Quality to Use
Pollution Prevention
Precip Enhancement
Recharge Area Protect
Recycled Muni Water
Surface Storage
System Reoperation
Urban Land Use Mgmnt
Urban Runoff Mgmt
Urban Use Efficiency
Water Transfers
Water-Dependent Rec
Watershed
Management
Other Strategies
0.2 - 0.5 (a)
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0.5 - 1.5 (b)
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(o)
0.3 – 0.4 (j)
0.9 - 1.4 (d)
0.4 – 1.0 (l)
0.1 – 0.3 (e)
1.5 – 2.5 (f)
0.2 – 1.1 (g)
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1.3 - ?
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0.10 0.15
6.0 - 9.0
 2.9 – 5.7
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Vary by strategy (see narrative)
Planning, Research & Development , and Pilot Studies to Reduce Uncertainty and Integrate Strategies
Regional Integrated
Resource Planning &
Mgmt
Statewide Water
0.12
Planning
Support all objectives and strategies
Data & Tool
0.25
Improvement
Research &
Development
Science
For Discussion Purposes Only
Has not been approved by DWR management or Advisory Committee
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Contact Information
Kamyar Guivetchi, P.E.
Manager, Statewide Water Planning
DWR, Planning & Local Assistance
901 P St., 2nd Floor, Sacramento
(916) 653-3937
kamyarg @ water.ca.gov
www.WaterPlan.water.ca.gov
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Part 2
Developing a New Analytical
Framework for the CWP
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Background and Context
Anatomy of Models
Proposed CWP Framework
Proposed Conceptual Model
Principles for framework
Short Term Approach and Beyond
Discussion and Possible Roles for CWEMF
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Last Year at Asilomar …
Hydrology 2030
CALSIM
SWP & CVP imports
Ag water use
LCPSIM
Unused deliveries
Urban water use
Cost of conservation
SWP&CVP imports
IWR-MAIN
CALAG
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What has Happened Since?
• Advisory committee was not comfortable with
proposed approach
– Didn’t fully support or understand some of the
models and modeling
– Disagreed with using a single vision of future
conditions
• DWR lacked resources to address problems
within schedule
• DWR decided to take a slower, fundamentally
different approach rather than disregard
feedback
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Where We Are Now
• State has leadership role in evaluating
statewide water management strategies
• Complexity of CWP has increased
• DWR has held numerous public
workshops to develop a proposed
analytical framework
• Proposal has not been presented to or
approved by full Advisory Committee
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Anatomy of Models
(Developed by Ken Kirby)
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Conceptual model
Theoretical model
Numerical model
Data
Data management
Software
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Definitions
• Conceptual Model - A description or
analogy used to help visualize
something that cannot be directly
observed
• Theoretical Model - A system of
postulates, data, and inferences
presented as a description of an entity
or state of affairs
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Definitions
• Numerical Model - An analytical tool that
employs quantitative approximations to
the solutions of mathematical problems
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Proposed CWP Framework
2003 - 2004
Identify Required Information
Develop Conceptual Models
2004 - 2006
Develop Theoretical Models
Develop Short Term Approach
2005 - 2007
Conduct Quantitative Analysis
for Update 2008
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Conceptual Model
Climate
Conditions
Ag/Urban
Demands
Ag/Urban
Wants
Water
Management
System
Economic and
Performance
Indicators
Ecosystem
Demands
Ecosystem
Wants
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Straw Proposal for Presenting
Conceptual Models
Agricultural
Water Demands
Required
Input
Desired
Output
Urban Water
Demands
Desired
Output
Required
Input
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Principles for Development and
Application of Tools and Data
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Strategy
Transparency
Long-Term Viability
Coverage
Accountability and Quality Control
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Short Term Approach
Inventory analytical tools using “Anatomy of Models”
Compare theoretical models to existing tools, data
and conceptual models
Propose changes to existing tools and data
Develop list of data needs
Modify existing tools and data
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Quantitative Analysis for
Water Plan Update 2008
Future scenarios
Performance measures
Interpret and describe results
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Update 2008 and Beyond
• Improve existing tools using conceptual
model
• Fill data gaps
• Develop Water Plan Information
Exchange (Water PIE)
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Discussion and Possible Roles
for CWEMF
• Anatomy of Models and CWP proposed
framework
• Detailed inventory of existing tools and
data
• Proposed conceptual models, desired
output, and required input
• Evaluating adequacy of tools
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Contact Information
Rich Juricich, P.E., M.S.
Statewide Water Planning
DWR, Planning & Local Assistance
901 P St., 2nd Floor, Sacramento
(916) 651-9225
juricich @ water.ca.gov
www.WaterPlan.water.ca.gov
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