Transcript Welcome Delegates

FEDERAL BUDGET PROBLEMS
Economic Woes
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•
•
•
National debt = $17 trillion +
US Budget Deficit = $1.2 trillion
National unemployment rate 7.3%
Unemployment in some Alaska villages
2 to 3 times that of national average
• Stock market very volatile
Where do Federal Tax Dollars Go?
FY 2013 Outlays
Other
17.5%
Medicare
13.8%
National Defense
18.2%
Medicaid
7.4%
Mandatory
Discretionary
BIA
0.07%
IHS
0.12%
Non-Defense
14.8%
Social Security
21.6%
Net Interest
6.5%
Non-Defense, Discretionary portion of budget very small!
Domestic Discretionary Funding Is a
Shrinking Share of Total Program Costs
Share of Total
2001
2008
Change
Defense & security
21.7%
29.2%
+7.5%
Social Security, Medicare/caid
45.9%
43.5%
-2.4%
Other mandatory programs
14.0%
12.5%
-1.4%
Domestic discretionary
18.4%
14.7%
-3.7%
Total program costs
100%
100%
0.0%
Notes: Figures may not add due to rounding. The defense/security figures also include veterans, homeland
security, and international affairs. Medicare is net of premiums. Figures for 2008 are CBO’s January estimate
plus supplemental discretionary funding requested by President Bush. Totals exclude net interest.
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2004
Domestic Discretionary Funding Has Been Growing More Slowly Than
Any Other Set of Programs
(Average annual rate of growth, from 2001 through 2008)
nominal
real
real per person
Defense & security
12.0%
9.1%
8.1%
Social Security, Medicare/caid
6.5%
3.8%
2.8%
Other mandatory programs
5.7%
3.0%
2.0%
Domestic discretionary
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
Average, all program costs
7.3%
4.6%
3.6%
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2004
WHAT CONTRIBUTES TO
DEFICIT SPENDING &
NATIONAL DEBT?
Sources of Federal Deficits - 2009-2019
Federal Revenues Will Be
Inadequate In Coming Decades
Source: CBPP projections based on CBO data
9
Legislation Adding to Deficits:
Mostly Tax Cuts & Defense
Cost in 2005 of legislation enacted since January 2001
Domestic
Discretionary
(except
Homeland
Security), 7%
Entitlements,
8%
Tax Cuts, 48%
Defense,
Homeland
Security, and
International,
37%
Source: CBPP calculations from Congressional Budget Office data. Reflects costs above an
adjusted CBO current services baseline.
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2005.
THE MOST EXPENSIVE
MYTH:
Tax breaks for the rich will stimulate
the economy!
Dow Jones Index
1990
95
Clinton
years
2000
2005
Bush Tax
Cuts
2010
Obama
Elected
Tax Breaks Impact on
Unemployment Rates
Rate at January of Each Year
12
Tax
Breaks
10
8
6
Rate
4
2
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
NATIVE AMERICAN
PROGRAM BUDGETS
Since 1980 Native American
programs have lost ground to
inflation while per capita
spending has gone up for other
citizens
Overall Per Capita Vs.
Indian Per Capita
80%
Relative Budget Change From 1975 (inflation adjusted)
Overall U.S. Per Capita Expenditure
Indian Per Capita Expenditure
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
2001
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75
-60%
When Congress has approved
increases to the BIA budgets
those increases went to Central
Office administration
BIA 2002 to 2008
1
2
4
3
2002
Change
5
Inflation
2008
16%
Tribal Priority
Allocation
$752,156
-$57,662
$694,534
-7.7%
Other Recurring
$586,968
$433,454
$1,020,422
73.8%
Non-Recurring
$72,798
-$
$
-%
Central Office
Ops
$58,106
$116,954
$175,060
201.3%
Regional Office
Ops
$62,679
-$18,182
$44,497
-29%
Special
Programs
$267,102
-$91,414
$223,467
-33.7%
BUDGET INCREASES: 6 LARGEST INTERIOR AGENCY
FY2004 TO FY2012
8%
Indian Affairs
Reclamation
Land Management
Geo Survey
Park Service
30%
Fish Wildlife
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
BUDGET INCREASES (DECREASES): 6 LARGEST INTERIOR AGENCIES
FY2012 PRESIDENT’S REQUEST VS. FY 2010 ENACTED LEVEL
$200
$150
+ $140 million
Millions
$100
$50
$0
($50)
($100)
- $120 million
($150)
NPS
FWS
USGS
BLM
BOR
BIA
SEQUESTRATION
Budget Control Act of 2011
1. Increased debt limit into 2013 in two stages
enabling payment for existing commitments
2. Cut discretionary spending by $917 B over 10 years
3. Established a bipartisan, bicameral committee to
identify additional $1.5 trillion or more in deficit
reduction by November 23. House and Senate to vote
by December 23 without amendment or filibuster.
4. Balanced Budget Amendment to Constitution to be
considered separately.
Super Committee Fails So …
• Budget Sequestration suppose to start Jan 1,
2013 – delayed until end of March.
• Approximate 7-10% across the board cuts in
nearly all domestic programs; similar cuts to
defense programs
Sequestration
• Budget Sequestration for FY 2013 – Partial
Year
– 5.21% Cut for the BIA
– $228 million cut for the IHS
– VA Medical System not cut
– Some low-income programs protected,
but not the Tribal programs
Sequester Impact
• Lack of Super Committee agreement last fall
led to across the board spending cuts,
“Sequestration.” 5.2% Cut.
• Sequestration means all deficit reduction is
from spending.
• Non-Defense Discretionary budgets are
already cut deeply through 10 year spending
caps.
Impacts on Specific Indian Programs
• Across the Board cuts will be worse than .2%
compared to FY10:
– Due to recent year reductions…
– Indian Housing Block Grant -21%
– Indian Student Education, -13%
– Tribal Community Oriented Policing Grants -25%
– BIA, Operation of Indian Programs - 14%
– Indian Health Service is subjected to the higher
8.2% cut, not the 2% special rule that the CRS
reported in August.
Federal Budget - Hard Facts
 At least one-third of all Federal
spending is funded through
borrowing.
 Debt Ceiling. Extended to about
mid-February 2014
 The BCA has life until 2021
BUDGET PROPOSALS
Speaker Boehner
 Proposed returning to FY 2008
budget levels
 A cut of about 15% from FY 2010
 FY 2008, after factoring in inflation,
was itself a cut of about 15% from FY
2002 levels
Chairman Ryan Plan
 Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan gets nearly twothirds of its $4.5 trillion in budget cuts over 10
years from programs for the needy
 $2.17 trillion in reductions from Medicaid and
related health care.
 $350 billion in cuts in mandatory programs serving
low-income Americans (other than Medicaid).
 $400 billion in cuts in low-income discretionary
programs.
CBO Report: Ryan Plan Would Nearly End
Most of Government Other Than Social
Security, Health Care, and Defense by 2050
• Plan would shrink federal spending to 20 %
of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2015
and to 14.75 % of GDP by 2050
• The lowest level since 1951, a time when
Medicare and Medicaid did not exist.
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2004
Ryan Budget: two-thirds of cuts from programs
for low- and moderate-income people
Source: “The Path to Prosperity” FY2012 Budget Resolution
35
Obama FY 2014 Budget
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Would End Sequestration
Increases Tax Revenue
Imposes Cuts on Medicaid and Medicare
Basically hold Indian programs harmless,
except for effects of inflation
President’s FY 2014
Proposed Budget
• Bureau of Indian Affairs: $2.56 billion
– An increase of $31.2 million above FY 2012
• $21.2 million less Contract Support increase
– Current Rate of Inflation: 1.5%
– $38.4 million x 2: $76.8 million
Notably…
the Administration proposes putting caps on
contract support costs moving it to a separate
account/providing them on a contract by contract
basis
BIG ISSUE – WOULD OVERTURN RAMAH
SUPREME COURT CASE
DONE WITHOUT TRIBAL CONSULTATION; IN VIOLATION
OF OBAMA EXECUTIVE ORDER ON CONSULTATION!
Department of the Interior
FY 2014 Budget = 4% Increase
• 5.11% all other than BIA
• BIA - 1.2% increase ($31 million)
–.8% less Indirect Cost ($10 million)
– Inflation: 1.5%
• If funded equitably to other DOI Bureaus
BIA funding increases should be $134 million
instead of $31 million
FY 2013 IHS Funding – Pres.
• IHS will be funded at $4.422 billion. That's
an increase from the $4.307 billion estimate
for fiscal year 2012.
• It's also an increase from the $4.069 billion
that the IHS saw in fiscal year 2011.
• Increase of $115 million.
• Did not full fund Contract Support Costs
• Partially protected from Sequestration
Non-Defense Discretionary Spending
3.6%
3.4%
Lowest Level since
1970
3.2%
3.0%
CBO Jan 2011 NDD
Projections
% of GDP
2.8%
2.6%
2.4%
BCA Caps/Obama/
Domenici-Rivlin
2.2%
Bowles-Simpson
2.0%
BCA with Sequester
1.8%
1.6%
Chairman Ryan's
Budget
1.4%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
House Act
 On Party Line voting, House has
passed legislation to hold the
Defense Budget Harmless, and
basically double cuts to the Domestic
Discretionary Programs.
 CR defunds Obamacare
What is Likely?
 Federal Government shut down;
further risk US credit rating.
 CR for three months, under FY 2013
Sequestration, with further
negotiation.
 Negotiations fail and there is a second
year of sequestration – worse than the
first.
MEMBERS OF CONGRESS NOT
MOTIVATED TO END
SEQUESTRATION
Blue / Red States in 2012
Blue / Red Counties in 2012
If Bush Tax Cuts had Expired
Sources of Federal Deficits - 2009-2019
Rich get Richer
The rich in this country
have never done better as
during this past decade!
Income Gains Have been Concentrated at the Top
Income Growth has been Very Uneven Recently
7/20/2015
cbpp.org
58
Widening Class Disparities
• The rich have never been richer
• 42 million Americans live in poverty
–
–
–
–
1 out of every 6
15.6 % of all Americans
22% of all children
The highest rate of poverty since 1993
Countries Where Rich Are
Too Rich and Poor Too Poor
• Libya
• Egypt
• Syria
• Mexico
No wonder why there is so much
political unrest in these countries!
Thank You for Your Kind
Attention!
Gunalcheesh!
Howa!
My Name is Ed Thomas
And I Approved This Message!
How a Bill Becomes Law
As
Introduced
As enacted
As
amended in
committee
As funded
by joint
committee
As amended
on the second
reading
As
implemented
As reported
by the media
As
understood
by the Public
What was
actually
needed!