Transcript Ozone seasonal assessment of emission reduction scenarios

Comparison and validation of
long term simulation of PM10
over 7 European cities in the
frame of Citydelta project
Bedogni M. , Costa M.P., Casadei S.
AMA Mobility and Environment Agency of Milan, Milan, Italy
Pirovano G.
CESI RICERCA Spa, Milan, Italy
AMA - MI
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
http://aqm.jrc.it/citydelta/
Phase III
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
CAMx version 4.21
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•
•
•
Horizontal advection: Bott Scheme
Resistance Based Dry Deposition
Wet Deposition
Photolysis rates adjusted as a function of cloud cover,
total ozone column and turbidity
• Gas phase chemistry
– Mechanism: CBIV99 Solver: CMC
• Aerosol phase chemistry
– SIA: Isorropia
SOA: SOAP algorithm
– Coarse/Fine bins
No dynamic processes
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
Introduction...
Vautard R. et al., Evaluation and intercomparison of Ozone and PM10 simulations
by several chemistry-transport models over 4 european cities within the CityDelta project, Atm. Env., 2006, in press.
City-delta III
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Base year 2004
Only CAMx model
5+2 cities: Berlin, Lisbon, London, Milan, Paris, (Prague, Krakow)
MM5 meterological fields at 10 km (Milan 5km, Lisbon 2km)
Kv computation following CMAQ approach
EMEP Emission Inventory & local inventories spatial distribution
Biogenic emissions
CHIMERE continental fields as B.C.
No specific tuning for each city
...We may look at this exercise with...
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
…a “synoptic” point view
…in order to discuss a couple of interesting topics
• Operational evaluation of the modelling system
• PM10 mass and composition
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
Stations subsets
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
53
NOX
Emission
density
5150
52.5
SONDRIO
TRENTO
5100
52
VARESE
BERGAMO
ber
lis
51.5
32
27372631
34
21
30
39
lon
UTM (km)
1
0.9
0.8-2.5
53
0.7
0.6
0.5
52.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
52
0
mil
100
BRESCIA
5050
par
VERONA
MILANO
NOVARA
51.5
5000
80
PIACENZA
ALESSANDRIA
51
Distance from
city centre
[km]
51
PARMA
60
4950
MODENA
BOLOGNA
40
50.5
GENOVA
50.5
4900
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
20
1
1.5
400
450
500
550
600
650
UTM (km)
0
ber
lis
lon
mil
par
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
Yearly Mean
CAMx
Obs
40
NO2
(24h r.a.)
60
35
O3 (8h daytime r.a. - summer)
50
40
25
[ppb]
[ppb]
30
20
15
30
20
10
10
5
0
0
ber
70
60
lis
lon
mil
par
Ox (24h r.a.)
60
50
[g/m3]
40
30
mil
par
10
10
0
0
lon
mil
par
PM10 (24h r.a.)
30
20
lis
lon
40
20
ber
lis
70
50
[ppb]
ber
ber
lis
lon
mil
par
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
BIAS
O3
[]
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
ber
PM10
lis
[]
[]
NO2
lon
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
mil
ber
par
lis
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
lon
ber
mil
lis
lon
mil
par
par
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
Sigma ratio
O3
NO2
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1
1
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0
0
ber
lis
lon
mil
par
ber
lis
lon
mil
par
4
3.5
3
PM10
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
ber
lis
lon
mil
par
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
Correlation
O3
NO2
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
ber
PM10
lis
lon
mil
ber
par
lis
lon
mil
par
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
ber
lis
lon
mil
par
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
Obs
[ppb]
Time series - NO2
CAMx
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Milan
1/1
[ppb]
daily mean (city average)
1/2
1/3
1/4
1/5
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1/6
1/7
1/8
1/9
1/10
1/11
1/12
1/8
1/9
1/10
1/11
1/12
1/8
1/9
1/10
1/11
1/12
Lisbon
1/1
1/2
1/3
1/4
1/5
1/6
1/7
80
70
Paris
[ppb]
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1/1
1/2
1/3
1/4
1/5
1/6
1/7
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
Time series - O3
daily max (city average)
120
[ppb]
Obs
Milan
100
80
60
40
CAMx
20
0
1/1
1/2
1/3
1/4
1/5
1/6
1/7
1/8
1/9
1/10
1/11
1/12
1/4
1/5
1/6
1/7
1/8
1/9
1/10
1/11
1/12
1/10
1/11
1/12
120
Lisbon
[ppb]
100
80
60
40
20
0
1/1
1/2
1/3
120
Paris
[ppb]
100
80
60
40
20
0
1/1
1/2
1/3
1/4
1/5
1/6
1/7
1/8
1/9
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
[ug/m3]
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
[ug/m3]
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
[ug/m3]
Time series - PM10
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
daily mean (city average)
Milan
1/1
1/2
1/3
1/4
1/5
1/6
1/7
1/8
1/2
1/3
1/10
Obs
Lisbon
1/1
1/9
1/4
1/5
1/11
1/12
CAMx
1/6
1/7
1/8
1/9
1/10
1/11
1/12
1/6
1/7
1/8
1/9
1/10
1/11
1/12
Paris
1/1
1/2
1/3
1/4
1/5
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
PM10 - total mass (yearly mean)
70
60
City Centre
Urban Area
[g/m3]
50
40
30
PM10
20
10
0
ber
70
lis
lon
PPM10
60
City Centre
Urban Area
[g/m3]
40
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
lis
lon
mil
pra
SIA
50
30
kra
par
60
40
ber
mil
70
City Centre
Urban Area
50
[g/m3]
kra
par
pra
ber
kra
lis
lon
mil
par
pra
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
PM10 - relative composition
1
0.8
0.6
SOA
NH4+
0.4
SO4=
NO3-
0.2
PPM10
City
centre
0
ber
kra
lis
lon
mil
par pra
1
0.8
0.6
SOA
NH4+
0.4
SO4=
NO3-
0.2
PPM10
Urban
areas
0
ber
kra
lis
lon
mil
par pra
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
PM10 - concentrations vs emissions
0.6
25
Par
0.5 20
Mil
[ug/m3]
0.4 15
Primary
PM10
(urban area)
NH
3/NOX ratio
(Domain vs
Emix density)
Urban area Emix density
0.3
10
Lis
0.2
0.1
5
0 0
0
ber
1 lis 2
3
lon
4mil 5
[ton/km2]
par6
7
pra
16
Mil
14
Nitrate (urban area)
vs
Domain Emix density (NOX )
[ug/m3]
12
10
Lon
8
6
4
Lis
2
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
[ton/km2]
6
7
8
9
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
30
Critical episodes - January 2004
Milan
Urban area
City centre
25
20
15
10
20
15
10
5
5
0
0
ppm10
sulf
nitr
ammo
Year
January
25
[g/m3]
[g/m3]
30
Year
January
ppm10
other
sulf
nitr
ammo
other
Paris
70
70
Year
January
60
50
[g/m3]
[g/m3]
50
Year
January
60
40
30
40
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
ppm10
sulf
nitr
ammo
other
ppm10
sulf
nitr
ammo
other
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
Conclusions
• Good reliability of emission inventories
• Heterogeneous measured data set can mask model discrepancies
• Photochemistry is well reproduced (also in Milan) at domain scale
• Local scale effects on NO2/O3 induce BIAS of 5-15%
• Performances for PM10 are less reliable and more heterogeneous:
10-20 % of mass is missing and variability is not well described
• Fine scale meteorology has clearly enhanced model performances
• PM10 yearly mean is around 20 [g/m3] (…not in Milan!)
• Milan: combined effect of low ventilation and chemistry on PM10
• Lisbon: ….a particular case…
• Sever episodes: errors may be emphasised (critical for exceedances)
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
Next steps...
• Evaluation of critical episodes (exceedances)
• Having established several datasets, we are planning to:
• perform source-apportionment analysis (OSAT & PSAT)
• perform systematic sensitivity analysis (PA & DDM)
• Following the “spirit” of Citydelta and the
ACCENT network we are surely interested and
willing to join projects based on model
ensemble approach
CAMx
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
Thanks to…
The authors would like to thank CONCAWE (London), IIASA (Vienna)
and JRC (Ispra) to have funded and promoted the phase III of Citydelta
modelling exercise.
The authors would also like to thank Claudio Carnevale of the
University of Brescia for his valuable contribution in the development of
the emission processor, TERRARIA (Milan) to have provided biogenic
emissions, and ARPA Lombardia to have performed some simulations .
Mobility and Environment Agency technical contribution has been
sustained by the Municipality of Milan.
[email protected]
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy
Paris Stations
30
25
CERGY
GENNEVI
MELUN
15
PARIS_1
PARIS_18
10
PM10
VITRY_SS
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
month
8
9
10
11
12
35
NO2
[ppb]
[ppb]
20
30
CERGY
25
GENNEVI
20
MELUN
PARIS_1
15
PARIS_18
10
VITRY_SS
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
month
G. Pirovano – CESIRICERCA, Italy