Transcript Credit Crisis in 30 slides

States of Artificial Disaster
THE ULTIMATE GUIDE TO BIG CRISIS OF ANY SORT.
LEARN HOW OUR UNIVERSAL MODEL OF DESTRUCTION WORKS.
The most popular question today:
Jeez, how did we come to this?
GOOD QUESTION!
AND THERE’S A LOT MORE OF THAT KIND.
HOW COME PEOPLE IN THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE SO UNHAPPY?
HOW COME FOOD IN THE DC’S SUCKS MORE AND MORE?
HOW COME IN THE DC’S SO MANY ARE OBESE, NEUROTIC, OR DIE OF CANCER?
HOW COME SOME CLEVER DC GUY FROM TIME TO TIME GETS NUTS AND KILLS?
HOW COME THE MORE WE EARN IN OUR DC THE MORE WE HAVE TO SPEND?
HOW COME WE ARE SUCH GOOD DC PROFESSIONALS AND SUCH A MESS WITH LOVE?
HOW COME…
Can you tell what common scheme
do all those questions share?
HERE IS IT:
deep ignorance
+
knowledge delusions
THE TIME FOR HONESTY HAS COME.
THERE’S A CLEAR PATH FROM THE START.
FOLLOW ME…
First of all we must clarify
what so-called Knowledge is.
WHY?
BECAUSE ACCEPTED KNOWLEDGE DRIVES THE BIG DECISIONS
THAT HEAVILY AFFECT LIFE OF MANKIND AND ENVIRONMENT.
BECAUSE ACCEPTED KNOWLEDGE SETS THE RULES
BY WHICH WE DISTINGUISH SUCCESS FROM FAILURE
AND CHOOSE OUR GOALS.
IS THAT ENOUGH?
To be honest, Knowledge is nothing
more than images, descriptions
of reality chunks picted by humans.
WHAT WE CALL KNOWLEDGE IS THE LAST PRODUCTION OF OUR
BIOLOGY, GENES, ENVIRONMENT, HISTORY, PERCEPTIONS, BODY
STATES, HEALTH&ILLNESS, LEARNED SCHEMES, LIKES&DISLIKES,
SOCIAL RELATIONSHIPS, DEPENDENCIES, EXPECTATIONS, HOPES,
HABITS, REPEATED STIMULI, INFLUENTIAL MODELS, CONVENIENCE,
NEGOTIATION, AUTHORITY, STRENGTH, WEAKNESS:
THESE ARE THE UNDERWATER ICEBERG, KNOWLEDGE IS THE TIP.
LOOK AROUND, AND LISTEN.
ALL EXPLANATIONS ARE POETRY
MADE OF WORDS AND FANCY
METAPHORES
RECALLING ONE ANOTHER AND
STANDING BY ONE ANOTHER.
IMAGES SOMETIMES BEAUTIFUL
INSPIRING OTHERS
TO CREATE MORE.
THERE’S NO FOUNDATION.
The Big Crisis is telling us:
Man you’re grown up, you got to face it!
Humans know very little.
WHICH ALSO MEANS:
OUR FORECASTS ARE VERY LIMITED.
AND WE LIVE ON FORECASTS…
Just a few examples:
• 95% OF MATTER AND ENERGY IN THE UNIVERSE IS UNKNOWN
TO US AND S0 CALLED “OBSCURE”
• 75% OF OUR DNA IS MEANINGLESS TO US AND SO CALLED
“JUNK”
• RULERS ACT ON STATS DEPICTING A GROSS WORLD THAT
DOES NOT EXIST IN REALITY
• MED IS BLIND ON MOST DISEASES, WHILE WE ARE AMIDST A
TRUE CANCER EPIDEMIC
• TECH IS APPLIED BEFORE FULL EVALUATION
• CLIMATE MATH MODELS FAIL
• MARKETS MATH MODELS FAIL
• WE ONLY SEE TINY BITS OF WHAT HAPPENS. WE HAVE NO
IDEA OF OTHERWISE.
The world is too complex
for us to dig and rule.
MATHS, PHYSICS, NEUROSCIENCE
HAVE PROVEN IT IN SO MANY WAYS SO FAR:
THERE ARE THINGS WE CANNOT KNOW
AND WE WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO KNOW
BECAUSE OF THE NATURE OF OUR BODIES AND PERCEPTIONS.
Nevertheless the cool Western rulers
have always pretended to know a lot.
WELL IT’S PRETTY EASY SHOULD YOU WANT TO PLAY .
CONSIDER THIS: HUMAN REASON HAS ALWAYS JUDGED ITSELF WITH NO
COUNTER-PARTY. JUST LIKE A STUPID GUY BOASTING AT THE MIRROR.
WE DEEM OUR OBJECT “INTELLIGENT” BUT THEY ARE JUST BEHAVING MATH.
OUR CULTURE HAS NO WAY TO CHECK WHETHER IT’S GETTING MORE
INTELLIGENT OR MORE STUPID, EXCEPT ONE THING:
FITNESS TO LIFE.
AND THAT’S RUNNING VERY LOW.
CONSIDER HOW ROUGH WESTERN KNOWLEDGE HAS BEEN FOR AGES.
Since the Greeks, the cosmos
has been modelized with
concentric perfect spheres.
THIS IDEA OF PERFECTION FROM PLATO
HAS BEEN KEPT BY AUTHORITY AND VIOLENCE FAR BEYOND ADVERSE EVIDENCE
FOR MORE THAN 2000 YEARS.
COPERNICUS HIMSELF STILL BELIEVED IT.
CONSIDER HOW ROUGH WESTERN KNOWLEDGE HAS BEEN FOR AGES.
Since the Greeks, human thought
has been modelized with
perfect rationality and logics.
THIS IDEA HAS BEEN CULTIVATED JUST LIKE A RELIGION
BOTH BY CLERGYMEN (I.E. ST. THOMAS, ST. AUGUSTINE) AND
SCIENTISTS (I.E. DESCARTES, LEIBNIZ) WHO INSTRUCTED US TO
PART MIND FROM BODY AND THUS MAN FROM NATURE
AGAINST ALL EVIDENCE.
CONSIDER HOW ROUGH WESTERN KNOWLEDGE HAS BEEN FOR AGES.
Since 19th century, economists
have modelized human societies as
collections of perfect automata
and our whole living environment
as a heap of disposable objects.
THIS EXTREME MODEL OF IGNORANCE HAS BEEN IMPOSED BY SHEER AUTHORITY
AGAINST ALL EVIDENCE
AS FAR AS WE ARE.
CONSIDER HOW ROUGH WESTERN KNOWLEDGE HAS BEEN FOR AGES.
Our “scientific” inquiry of the world
followed an obtuse way we’ll call
the 6-error Knowledge Model.
BTW REMEMBER THAT YOU SHOULD SAY SCIENCE ONLY
WHEN YOU CAN REPEAT AN EXPERIMENT OVER AND OVER,
AND OFTEN EVEN THAT IS NOT ENOUGH.
SOCIAL SCIENCES ARE NOT REAL SCIENCES.
1
2
body
mind
3
the world
“out there”
CONCEPT/
THEORY
our little
Model
(best if
maths)
our
data
OBSERVATION
ABSTRACTION
The 6-error Western Knowledge Model
4
5
Model +
ad hoc rules
LAB GROWTH
IDEA ASSOCIATION,
MULTIPLICATION,
FRAGMENTATION
dust of
dispersed individual
researches & theories
uncontrollably
growing
6
ADOPTION &
APPLICATION
?
“Jeez, how the hell
did we come
to this??”
I KNOW, MODELS OF THINKING…
• ARE NECESSARY TO FILTER CHAOS
• PROVIDE AUTO-MODE IN LIFE NAVIGATION
BUT THEY
• ARE SUCCESSFUL WHEN THEY HIT A NICE
SIMPLIFICATION OR A FANCY IMAGE
• ARE THEN HIGHLY STICKY
• GENERATE FURTHER BAD KNOWLEDGE
AND WORST OF ALL
• THE SUCCESS OF A MODEL HAS NEVER BEEN RELATED TO
ITS PLAUSIBILITY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN
ECONOMICS.
IN FACT…
M
The Western universal scheme of
knowledge generation
is a Disaster Engine.
AT EACH STEP A WORSE ERROR IS INTRODUCED AND SEALED IN
AT EACH STEP MORE DETAILS ARE FOREVER PUT INTO OBLIVION
AS WE MOVE FROM INITIAL NATURAL COMPLEXITY
TO FINAL ARTIFICIAL COMPLEXITY GENERATED BY US.
REAL LONG-TERM OUTCOMES ARE UNPREDICTABLE BY OUR LIMITED MEANS.
OK BUT HOW COMES OUR IMPRESSION WE KNOW SO MUCH?
WHERE IS THE TRICK?
The point is mathematics.
Say anything in math-like formulas
and it will appear handy as 2+2=4.
IT’S EASY BUT SOOO RISKY! IN NATURE THERE ARE NO LINEAR PROCESSES,
MOSTLY UNCERTAIN FUZZY GRADIENTS AND COMPLEX NETWORKS.
TO REACH MATH’S EXACTNESS WE MUST STERILIZE NATURAL LANGUAGE
AND CUT OUT SO MANY DETAILS THAT
THE EVENTUAL MODEL CAN BE VERY FAR FROM REALITY.
WORSE, WE DON’T KNOW HOW FAR.
The world seems mathematical to us
because we know so little about it.
IT’S NOT ME WHO SAID THIS
BUT AN OUTSTANDING MATHEMATICIAN AND PHILOSOPHER
OF LAST CENTURY, MR. BERTRAND RUSSELL.
TOO BAD FOR MR. GALILEI WHO SAID THAT THE UNIVERSE IS
GOD’S BOOK WRITTEN IN A MATHEMATICAL LANGUAGE.
INCREDIBLY, MANY SCHOLARS STILL THINK SO.
THERE’S MORE:
Be careful with Abstractions.
They can reveal useful regularities
but shift responsibilities away
from real men to concepts.
IF YOU THINK OF THE CRISIS SAYING LIKE: IT’S THE MARKET, IT’S
KONDRATIEFF CYCLES, IT’S BANKS, IT’S GLOBALIZATION, IT’S TECHOLOGY,
IT’S THIS AND THAT! YOU ARE JUST DAYDREAMING.
AND YOU UNWILLINGLY DO CONNIVE AT THE CRIME OF THE ONES WHO
CAUSED IT WITH THEIR STUPIDITY / ARROGANCE / GREED.
A COMPANY ALSO IS A CONCEPT: IT HAS NO BODY AND FEELS NO PAIN.
Modern Economics has always
pretended to be a kind of physics for
human societies. But it is not.
ITS “LAWS” ARE BASED ON THIS PRETTY FORMAL MODEL:
HUMANS ARE ASSUMED TO BE PERFECTLY RATIONAL
AND TO ACT ALWAYS TO MAXIMIZE AN UTILITY OF THEIR OWN
WHICH CAN BE MEASURED. THAT’S UNREAL AND IRRATIONAL ITSELF!
EVEN WORSE, MODERN ECONOMISTS FORGOT TO INCLUDE IN IT
THE NATURAL LIMITS OF RESOURCES AND THE CREATION OF WASTE.
Too bad, our economics-born math-like
abstract knowledge is the agenda setter
for billions of tech-powered people.
FOR EXAMPLE SUCCESS IS DEFINED AS MORE AND MORE
WE HAVE NO OTHER GIVEN PERSPECTIVE THAN CONSUME AND GROW!
THUS PEOPLE SIMPLY WANT MORE AND MORE
THEY PREFER NOT TO ASK AND FORGET: TECH HANDS THEM THE PILLS.
THEY CAN’T BUT DESPISE THOSE WHO OWN LESS OR DON’T PRODUCE.
+0,4%
+193%
+26%%
193
+11%
,6%
+293%
This is our famous fake Development:
a bunch of more-and-more,
no matter what.
+2,2%
REAL COSTS OF PROFITS WERE DUMPED ONTO SOCIETY.
REAL BENEFITS WERE NOT DISCOUNTED BY BAD EFFECTS:
POLLUTION, DISEASES, STRESS, FIGHTS, DISASTERS, ETC.
IN FACT THE GDP STILL WEIGHS THESE AS POSITIVE TERMS!
AIN’T THAT CRAZY?
+7,2%
DESPAIR OF GROWING COMPLEXITY
COMBINED WITH THE MAX-PROFIT IDEOLOGY
IS A DEADLY MIX FOR TODAY'S POLITICS.
MORE AND MORE DECISORS CAN'T BUT BUY
MATH-LIKE REALITY SCHEMES ON CREDIT,
THINKING THEY'RE THE SOLUTION.
FALSE. THEY'RE THE PROBLEM.
When we come to complex systems,
the right language is English
not mathematics.
IT’S NOT ME WHO SAID THIS
BUT AN IMPORTANT HISTORIAN OF MATHEMATICS,
MR. GIORGIO ISRAEL.
IN SUMMARY:
Enforcing only measurable criteria after
a quantitative perfection myth
destroys humanism and the sacred
AS EVERY SPACE, TIME, WORD AND CONCEPT YIELDS TO ADVERTISING,
THE ULTIMATE FAKE RESOURCE IN A FAKE ECONOMY
POLITICS SURRENDERED TO QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS IS A MENACE.
IN SUMMARY:
They have been ruling this world
with fanciful politics made for an
ideal abstract world, the kind that
can be described by math and software.
THAT’S NOT OUR WORLD.
THAT’S NOT MANKIND.
Result: our catastrophe-driven culture.
A subprime culture.
RULERS ARE INCREASINGLY INCAPABLE TO PREVENT
SO THEY JUST PUSH TO RUN FASTER AND FASTER
TO PRODUCE AND POSSESS MORE AND MORE
MINDLESSLY
AD NAUSEAM
UNTIL WE CRASH ON SOME WALL.
THIS CRISIS IS JUST ONE REMINDER.
WE’LL SEE MORE AND MORE OF THAT TOO.
YOU CAN SEE NOW THIS CRISIS IS A BLATANT EXAMPLE OF
ALL ABOVE SAID. A BREAKDOWN POINT OF DISTORTIONS
ACCUMULATED BEHIND THE SCENES WHERE ADULT KIDS
HAVE BEEN PLAYING WITHOUT CONTROL WITH THEIR
FANCIER AND FANCIER ABSTRACT FINANCIAL PRODUCTS,
PUSHED BY THE MERE DOMINANT IDEOLOGY OF GROWTH IN
A BOGUS FREE MARKET, SELLING BRANDS AND FORMULAS
INSTEAD OF CONCRETE VALUE. THE COMPLEXITY THEY
GENERATED IS NOW OUT OF GRASP JUST LIKE WEATHER:
NOBODY KNOWS WHERE WE WILL BE IN A WEEK. SO…
HAVE A NICE CRISIS, AND DON’T FORGET YOUR UMBRELLA.