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Impact Evaluation in Education Introduction to Monitoring and Evaluation Andrew Jenkins 23/03/14 The essence of theory of change – linking activities to intended outcomes I am cutting rocks http://img359.imageshack.us/img359/7104/picture420bt2.jpg I am building a temple Theory of change “the process through which it is expected that inputs will be converted to expected outputs, outcome and impact” DfID Further Business Case Guidance “Theory of Change” Theory of change Start with a RESULTS CHAIN The results chain: tips Activities We produce We control 100% attribution We are accountable for Delivered annually Readily changed Outputs Influence We control Some attribution Outcomes Contribute to Clients control Partial attribution We expect Should occurr By end of program Long-term Less flexibility to change Long term Monitoring – activities and outputs Personal Monitoring Tools No monitoring - blind and deaf Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring Efficiency Measures how productively inputs (money, time, personnel, equipment) are being used in the creation of outputs (products, results) An efficient organisation is one that achieves its objectives with the least expenditures of resources Evaluation Measures Effectiveness the degree to which results / objectives have been achieved An effective organisation is one that achieves its results and objectives MONITORING EVALUATION focused on project process (per individual project) focused on effectiveness of project process (for many projects) Inputs Outputs Outcomes All Most Some Short and intermediate effects. Resources Staff Funds Facilities Supplies Training Project deliverables achieved “Count” (quantified) what has been done Long term effects and changes 10 Resist temptation, there must be a better way! • • • • • • • Clear objectives Few key indicators Quick simple methods Existing data sources Participatory method Short feed-back loops Action results! Monitoring/Evaluation objectives must be SMART • • • • • Specific Measurable Achievable Realistic Timed (see 10 Easy Mistakes, page 5) Evaluation: who evaluates whom? The value of a joint approach The Logical Chain 1. Define Objectives (and Methodology) 2. Supply Inputs 3. Achieve Outputs 4. Generate Outcome 5. Identify and Measure Indicators 6. Evaluate by comparing Objectives with Indicators 7.Redefine Objectives (and Methodology) Impact Evaluation • An assessment of the causal effect of a project, program or policy beneficiaries. Uses a counterfactual… Impacts = Outcomes - What would have happened anyway www.brac.net When to use Impact Evaluation? Evaluate impact when project is: •Innovative •Replicable/ scalable •Strategically relevant for reducing poverty •Evaluation will fill knowledge gap •Substantial policy impact •Use evaluation within a program to test alternatives and improve programs www.brac.net Impact Evaluation Answers What was the effect of the program on outcomes? How much better of the beneficiaries because of the program policies? How would outcome change if changed program design? Is the program cost-effective? www.brac.net Different Methods to measure impact evaluation Randomised Assignment – experimental Non Experimental: Matching Difference-in-Difference Regression Discontinuity Design Instrumental Variable / Random Promotion www.brac.net Randomization • The “gold standard” in evaluating the effects of interventions • It allows us to form a “treatment” and “control” groups – identical characteristics – differ only by intervention Counterfactual: randomized-out group www.brac.net Matching • Matching uses large data sets and heavy statistical techniques to construct the best possible artificial comparison group for a given treatment group. •Selected basis of similarities in observed characteristics •Assumes no selection bias based on unobservable characteristics. Counterfactual: matched comparison group www.brac.net Difference-in-difference • Compares the change in outcomes overtime between the treatment group and comparison group • Controls for the factors constant overtime in both groups • ‘parallel trends’ in both the groups in the absence of the program Counter-factual: changes over time for the nonparticipants www.brac.net Uses of Different Design Design When to use Randomization ► Whenever possible ► When an intervention will not be universally implemented Random Promotion ► When Regression Discontinuity ► If Diff-in-diff ► If Matching ► When an intervention is universally implemented an intervention is assigned based on rank two groups are growing at similar rates other methods are not possible ► Matching at baseline can be very useful www.brac.net Qualitative and Quantitative Methods Qualitative methods focus on how results were achieved (or not). They can be very helpful for process evaluation. It is often very useful to conduct a quick qualitative study before planning an experimental (RCT) study. www.brac.net Thank you!