Transcript Slide 1

The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
EMBEDDING TRANSFORMATIVE PRIORITIES INTO THE STI
LANDSCAPE
EXPERIENCE FROM THE BMBF-FORESIGHT SYSTEM
Philine Warnke
Fraunhofer ISI
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Point of departure
RTI priorities for the “grand challenges of our time” are
different from thematic ones not only in content but also in
kind.
Reason: need to align social and technological innovation
to modulate socio-technical co-evolution pathways
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Transformative Priorities – tentative characteristics
• Shared
• Inclusive
• Hybrid
• Experimental
• (Extra)-systemic
• Glocal
High potential for Foresight to
contribute to generation of TPs
provided that methodological
potential is fully exploited
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Observation
Transformative Priorities emerging in recent Foresight exercises ...
Better life space – space for life and growth
Forsk2015 Denmark
Progressive coupling of urban development, physical planning and
social progress
What does the “greying” of society mean?
NL Horizon scan
Understanding socio-cultural change in an aging society
Manufacturing on demand UK TIF
Distributed localised manufacturing of personalised products with
rapid manufacturing technologies and new business and service
models
Embedding Transformative Priorities
BUT generation is not enough
Transformative Priorities challenge existing
organisational structures which are organised
according to established paradigm
Specific effort is required of embedding them into
actors’ strategic processes
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Experience from Germany
Priorities with transformative potential identified in
Foresight process
ProductionConsumption2.0
Systemic socio-technical innovation towards sustainable
patterns of production and consumption.
Human-Technology Cooperation
Transdisciplinary research on new formations of humans
and technology
In spite of high recognition by several actors
implementation proves challenging. Boundary spanning
work required.
Embedding Transformative Priorities
BMBF Approach: Foresight System
Main elements
• Strategic Dialogues with key actors inside BMBF and RTI
landscape fostering appropriation and embedding (c.f.
Lohr& Hallensleben)
• Monitoring system observing TPs advising
complementary measures and preparing subsequent
scanning phase
•Embedded evaluation
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Function of Monitoring System
Foresight System: Continuous, iterative, learning
Scanning I
Analysis I
Integration,
Implementation
Monitoring System:
1.
Tracking of results
2.
Observation of
framework conditions
Scanning II
Analysis
II
Systematic
preparation of next
phase
Support for
implementation
Systematic Foresight: Constant provision of information for strategic decision making
Bode and Beyer-Kutzner 2010
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Experience to date
Several elements being implemented in different ways
but at the same time transformative perspective being
“safeguarded” by the monitoring system
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Conclusions
•Foresight may have a crucial role to play in generating
transformative RTI priorities with an impact on GCs if
methodological potential is fully exploited
•implementation requires a much stronger effort.
•A substantial move towards adaptive and embedded
Foresight systems as initiated by BMBF seems
adequate