Transcript Changing crime rates?

Changing crime rates?
Gabrielle Maxwell
27 February 2009
Institute of Policy Studies, Victoria University
of Wellington
Outline
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What evidence is available?
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How much crime is occurring?
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Are the police apprehending offenders?
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What sorts of crimes?
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Are young people offending more often?
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Imprisonment rate comparisons
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Why so much concern about rising crime?
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Conclusions
The types of evidence
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Reported crime?
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Resolved crime?
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Apprehensions?
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Breakdowns by
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Year
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Type of crime
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Age group
How much crime?
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Victim surveys: 2000 – 2005
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Victims of violence - little change
Household offences - “increase but not a large
one”
Crime reported to the police
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overall a decline
Crime rates recorded by police
Recorded Offences per 10,000 population
1400
1200
Offences
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
Why is crime declining
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International trend
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Not well understood
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Possible reasons include
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economic patterns,
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better security,
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changes in culture and life style
Police effectiveness
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Percentage being resolved, in standard
times set for resolution statistics, has
steadily increased.
All crime:
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Serious violence:
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36% in 1998 to nearly 50% in 2007
71% to 80%
Murder:
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62% to 91%
Police apprehensions
Police Resolution percentages for murder and serious violence 1998-2007
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Rate
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
Murder
Serious Violence
2004
2005
2006
2007
What sorts of crimes?

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Almost all types of crimes have been
declining
Exceptions are ones relating to new
technologies
Most important data probably involves
violence – especially serious violence and
murder
Data in graph show no. of cases in court
and not no. of offenders.
Types of offences
Police apprehension rates per 10,000 population by offence type 19952007;
600
500
Rate per 10,000
400
300
200
100
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
All Offences
Murder
Serious violence
2004
2005
2006
2007
Commentary on graph
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Overall a decline - 2007 a new trend or a blip?
Murder - rise from 12 to 15 per million – possibly
reflects improved resolution speeds and rates
Serious violence shows a rise:
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Greater increase in threats of violence than in actual
assaults but there are increases here too
More partner violence
Possibly declining tolerance of violent behaviour –
particular within the family.
International comparisons suggest violence data
probably similar to Australia and Canada rather
than USA
Offending by young people
Police apprehension rates per 10,000 population by age groups for all offences 19952007:
Rate per 10,000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
14 to 16
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Offending by young people
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Why is it apparently declining when reports
of rises come from various areas regularly?
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Crime hot spots come and go – often when a
specific cohort moves on or ages
Could be changes in patterns with changes in
nature of communities
Increased poverty among the poorest
Despite media reports - South Auckland police
report successful new crime management
strategies
Concerns about rising crime
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Role of the media
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BBC analyses UK crime going down but 2/3
people believe it is rising
In NZ TV news – c. 20% deals with crime in a
news period where about 50% in all is about
death and disaster
Trends in press and TV – tabloidisation,
trivialisation, lack of expert commentators
Distorted perception of facts, increased
fearfulness and undermined public confidence.
Prison sentences - trends
1980-2007
Imprisonment rates: international
comparisons (Data from 1993-2003)
Global Peace index rankings 2008
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Iceland
Denmark
Norway
New Zealand
Japan
Canada
Hong Kong
Australia
United Kingdom
United States
Iraq
23
1
2
3
4
5
11
27
49
97
140
Comparative incarceration rates per 100k population
250
200
150
100
50
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Australia
1997
1998
England/Wales
1999
Scotland
2000
2001
Canada
2002
Sweden
2003
2004
Netherlands
2005
NZ
2006
2007
2008
Conclusions
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Overall, crime is dropping or stable
Police are resolving more crime more speedily
Violent crime is rising but in part because family
violence is being reported more often
Young people are now less likely to come to
attention than ten years ago
Changes reflect innovative policing, better
responses to young people, better situational
crime prevention
Prison numbers have risen disproportionately to
offending and to other comparable countries