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MSc BIS
What theory can be found to underpin
the inevitability of a crisis?
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HCM
Group 3:
Perry Trienekens
Bram Boerman
Janine Jaquet
Kenny Ensink
Daan Verkaik
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Contents of this lecture
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Crisis in all its forms
Chaos theory
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HCM
Icarus paradox
Black Swan
Disruptive innovation
Business Case: Municipality of Amsterdam
Thomas Kilmann Test
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Crisis in all its forms
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HCM
What is 'crisis'?
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Crisis in all its forms
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HCM
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Crisis in all its forms
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HCM
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Crisis in all its forms
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HCM
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Crisis in all its forms
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HCM
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"Communication, organization, and crisis" Seeger, M. W. et al.; (1998)
Crisis in all its forms
Defining characteristics of crisis:
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2.
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4.
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unexpected (i.e., a surprise)
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creates uncertainty
is seen as a threat to important goals
need for change
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'Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and Social Systems', Holling (2001)
Crisis in all its forms
Three properties shape the future of a system:
1. Inherent potential
2. Internal controllability
3. Adaptive capacity
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HCM
"Surprise and structural change are inevitable in
systems of people and nature." p. 391
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'De logica van chaos in veranderingsprocessen' (the logic of chaos in change processes),
Zuijderhout, Wobben, ten Have, Busato (2002)
Chaos Theory
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Chaos theory suggests that sometimes you
can't manage change. That you have to let go.
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HCM
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When a system or organization builds up
energy it gets complexer. In the end the
complexity will bring forth chaos.
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However the system will bring order to itself if
it gets the chance.
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Chaos Theory
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HCM
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Chaos Theory
Outcomes from the chaos:
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1. The tension fades
We go back to the old way of HCM
working.
2. A new order
A new way of working is gets implemented and then
refined.
3. Recession
The old order is rejected by the organization, but there isn't
a new order.
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Chaos Theory
Stuck in chaos?
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HCM
There are three things you need to get out.
1. The pressure to change.
2. Elements that can't stay the same.
3. New options.
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'The Icarus Paradox: How exceptional companies bring about their own downfall' ,
Danny Miller (1992)
Icarus paradox
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Successful organizations are prone to failure.
Working strategies get supported and
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integrated into processes.
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Company starts to lose sight of other ideas.
Same goes for people.
They found 4 main tracks that a company/
person can follow.
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Icarus paradox
Craftsman -> tinkerer
A focus on high quality products turns into an obsession with
small unimportant details.
Builder -> Imperialist
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A smart mind that knows how to HCM
expands starts expanding
without reason.
Pioneer -> Escapist
The thirst for being the first turns into blindly choosing the latest
technology.
Salesman -> Drifter
Great marketing turns into bland all the same sales pitch where
the product doesn't matter.
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Icarus paradox
The momentum a company builds comes
from a couple of sources.
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HCM
1. Leadership traps
2. Current culture and skills
3. Power and politics
4. Memories
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Icarus paradox
The paradox has two sides
1. Success can lead to failure.
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2. The things that can make
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also make you fail.
Can we combat the paradox?
Reflection and keep monitoring the situation.
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'The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable' ,
Nassim Taleb (2010)
The Black Swan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDbuJtAiA
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HCM
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The Black Swan
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They are hard to predict
They have a big impact/consequence
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Not able to predict beforehand
but "obvious"
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after it happened.
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The Black Swan
Why is it hard to see a Black Swan coming?
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We are looking for patterns and predictability
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Enterprise Risk Management
HCM
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Focus on the White Swans
Blind for coincidence and let us run opportunities…
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The Spectrum of Variability
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HCM
Different kind of crisises
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Coping with Black Swan events
Need to learn to be able to deal with them.
Don’t try to predict them.
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HCM
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Investing in resilience
Building in redundancy
Organization not operating ‘on the edge’
Focus on positive ones
Prepare for the impact
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DisruptiveMSc
Innovation
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HCM
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Disruptive Innovation
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Established Companies
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Traditional view
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HCM
 Customer needs
Technology changes
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Not radically new
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Disruptive Innovation
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Technological Innovations
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Sustaining
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HCM
technologies
Maintain Rate of improvement
Disruptive technologies
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Different package
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HCM
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Disruptive Innovation
How to spot & cultivate Disruptive Technology?
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Determine Disruptive
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Locate initial market
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/HCM
Sustaining
Customers
Experimenting rapidly, iteratively and
inexpensively with both product & market
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Disruptive Innovation
How to spot & cultivate Disruptive Technology?
 Strategic Significance
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Plotting product performance
in a graph
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HCM
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Disruptive Innovation
Spot & cultivate Disruptive Technology
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Responsibility for building HCM
disruptive technology
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Keep disruptive organization independent
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Disruptive Innovation
Enabling Disruptive Innovation
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Internal
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HR
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Organisation
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Structure
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HCM
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Disruptive Innovation
Enabling Disruptive Innovation
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Context
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Customer
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