Transcript Document

“Multi-functional Mesoscale
Observing Networks in
Support of Integrated
Forecasting Systems”
A Report on a USWRP Workshop
Organized by:
Fred Carr, University of Oklahoma
Walt Dabberdt, Vaisala Inc.
Tom Schlatter, NOAA/OAR/FSL & CIRES
Presentation to:
WSN05
Toulouse, France
Presentation Outline
 Workshop goals and background

 Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
 Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
 Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
 Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 2
Workshop Goals
 Develop a roadmap that leads to designing, testing and
implementing integrated mesoscale observing-forecasting
systems that:
– yield improved mesoscale forecasts
– utilize optimal observing system configurations
– serve multiple applications
– recognize the capabilities, interests and resources
of the public, private and academic sectors
 Explore appropriate business models that will support and enable
these systems
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 3
Workshop Factoids
Domestic Int’l. Total
Public Sector
37
4
41
Academia and NCAR
49
3
52
25
4
29
11
122
Private Sector
TOTAL PARTICIPANTS
111
Dates:
8-10 Dec. 2005
Working Group Leaders:
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Nowcasting - Pat Welsh, NOAA/NWS (now
U.No.Florida)
 Jim Wilson, NCAR
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Modeling and Data Assimilation - Steve Koch, NOAA/OAR
 Xiaolei Zou, Florida State University
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 4
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Test Beds - Marty Ralph, NOAA/OAR
 Dave Jorgensen, NOAA/OAR
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Implementation - Joe Friday, University of Oklahoma (ret.)
 Maria Pirone, AER, Inc.
Presentation Outline
 Workshop goals and background

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 Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
 Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
 Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
 Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 5
Modeling & Data Assimilation Recommendations:
Scope
 What is the optimal mix of observations at the meso-, storm- and
urban scales?
 Examples of mesoscale forecast applications requiring improved
observing capabilities include:
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severe weather systems in both cold and warm seasons;
air quality and chemical emergency response;
aviation, marine and surface transportation; and
hydrology and more.
 Modelers should be involved in the observing network decision
process by designing observing system experiments to determine:
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the most important variables to measure;
the minimum spacing and resolution requirements (network design);
adaptive and targeted sampling strategies; and
data assimilation techniques to effectively use these new measurements.
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 6
Modeling & Data Assimilation Recommendations:
Remedy Deficiencies in Current Observational Networks
Most desirable additional measurements:
 Lower tropospheric measurements:
– Mass, winds, moisture fields (3D) ~10 km horizontal; ~200 m vertical; 1-3 hrs
– PBL turbulent fluxes, PBL heights
– Turbulent flow and stability ~2 km; 15 min
– Aerosols, chemical tracers, emissions data
 Quantitative precipitation estimate:
– Better accuracy, good and consistent quality control
 Upper tropospheric measurements:
– State variable measurements at 100 km spacing (0.5 km vertical), 1-3 hours
–
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improved winds from satellite and regional aircraft
vertical profiling of state variables and hydrometeors in cloudy regions
increased vertical resolution from satellite
ozone profiling;
tropopause topology
 Land surface properties:
– Soil moisture and temperature profiles, snow cover and depth, SST, vegetation type/state
updated daily
 Radiative transfer inputs:
– Ozone, CO2, water vapor, clouds
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 7
Modeling & Data Assimilation:
Overarching Recommendations
 It may be more cost effective to sample only the boundary layer with
denser coverage than to similarly enhance observations in the upper
troposphere for improving mesoscale analysis and prediction.
 It may be cost effective to deploy intermittent, targeted observations
at high resolution. Testbeds built around prototype observing networks
need to be in place to provide real-data tests of proposed strategies
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 8
Presentation Outline
 Workshop goals and background
 Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup

 Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
 Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
 Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
 The Helsinki Testbed
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 9
Advanced Operational Nowcasting – Scope
 Forecast Period: 0-6 hr
 Forecast High Impact Events
 Winter weather: heavy precipitation (precipitation type – major
challenge), high winds, icing
 Summer weather: high winds, heavy rain, lightning, hail
 Air quality; dispersion of airborne toxins
 Forecast Techniques
 Extrapolation
 Statistical
 Numerical (process models)
 Expert systems
 Observing Systems - “All”
 Important parameters to measure:
low-level moisture; detection of
sharp gradients; boundary-layer height; strength of capping
inversion; energy potentially available for convection
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 10
Nowcasting Recommendations
Top priority: Establish a national mesonetwork of surface stations.
 NOAA should take the lead to establish this network, and set standards
for data quality.
 Resolution needed: 5min and 10-25km (topography-specific).
 Basic measurements:
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winds
temperature
humidity
pressure
precipitation amount and liquid equivalent
 Application-specific options:
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precipitation type and size distribution
soil temperature and moisture
radiation fluxes
ceiling height
visibility
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 11
Nowcasting Recommendations
Priority Radar Recommendations:
 NWS should proceed without delay with the (approved) addition of dual
polarization capability to the WSR-88D network.
 Pursue the National Research Council Study recommendation to integrate other
radars into the WSR-88D network.
 Support studies to investigate means for improving boundary-layer coverage in
the future through the use of closely spaced X-band radars.
 NWS should pursue vigorously plans for a national expansion of the NOAA
Profiler Network with emphasis on boundary-layer observations.
 A research field project should be conducted that tests the utility of radar
refractivity measurements to improve nowcasting.
Other Priority Recommendations:
 Continue support for collaborative research projects aimed at using total lightning
data to improve severe weather warnings and nowcasts.
 Provide real-time near-surface water vapor fields to demonstrate how highresolution water vapor fields can improve nowcasting.
 Establish testbeds for very short period forecasting (0-6 hr, nowcasting) of high
impact weather.
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 12
Presentation Outline
 Workshop goals and background
 Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup

 Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
 Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
 The Helsinki Testbed
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 13
Mesoscale Weather Forecasting -- Testbeds
Testbed Definition: “A working relationship in quasi-operational
framework among forecasters, researchers, private-sector, and
government agencies aimed at solving operational and practical
regional problems with a strong connection to end-users.”
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 14
Testbed Recommendations
Testbeds are crucial in transitioning observing and modeling
research into operations; a successful testbed must satisfy
the following criteria:
 Address the detection, monitoring, and prediction of regional
phenomena of particular interest.
 Engage experts in the phenomena of interest.
 Involve stakeholders in planning, operation, and evaluation of the
testbeds.
 Define expected outcomes, including transition to operations,
strategies for achieving them, and measures of success.
 Provide special observing networks (and people,
communications, and databases) needed for pilot studies and
research
 Provide resources for the generation and delivery of experimental
products based upon these observations.
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 15
Observational needs
vs. Applications
Nowcasting: severe convection
e.g. high winds, hail
Nowcasting: tornadic storms
Nowcasting: freezing rain
Mesoscale wx forecasting
Heat stress forecasting
Orographic turbulence
Agriculture -- freeze warnings
Terminal area aviation operations
Electrical activity
Flash flood forecasting
Emergency response:
chemical spills; toxic agents
natural disasters
Air quality
Key:
0 = not appropriate
1 = beneficial
2 = essential
Aug-05
soundings = RAOBS & ACARS, etc.
wind profilers = radar; sodar; lidar
BS Lidar
Wind Profilers
Weather Radar
Lightning Detection
MW Radiometry/GPS
Rain Gauge Network
Soundings
Sfc Wx Mesonets
Satellite Data
Mesoscale Networks:
Applications
Presentation Outline
 Workshop goals and background
 Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
 Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International

 Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
 Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 17
Mesoscale Observing Programs Are Proliferating:
How can we build on them?
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Coastal Storms
• Land-falling storms
(PACJET)
• Air Quality
• Fire Weather
• Energy, Water, & Air
Quality Issues
•Mesowest
•ARM CART
• Oklahoma Mesonet
• Texas Mesonet
• AIRMAP
• Hi-res temperature
forecasts for energy sector
Coastal Storms
North American
Monsoon Experiment
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 18
Helsinki Testbed 2005-2006
Mesoscale weather research
 Forecast and dispersion models: development and verification
 Observing systems and strategies: test and design
 Information systems and technology integration
 End-user product development and demonstration
 Data distribution for public and research community
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Observing Facilities
(preliminary)
1 dual-pol Doppler radar
4 C-band Doppler radars
101 surface wx stations*
191 road weather stations
42 two-level AWS masts
3 shipboard weather stations
11 backscatter lidars
1 UHF wind profiler
3 RAOB sounding stations
34 precipitation sites (part of 101)*
satellite obs. (GS and PO)
COSMIC RI soundings
EUCOS operational network
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 19
150km
Beijing Observational Network Development Plan (2006-08)
Source: CMA, July 2003
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 20
Presentation Outline
 Workshop goals and background
 Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
 Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
 Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup

 Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 21
Implementation of Integrated Mesoscale
Observing-Forecasting Systems
Focus: Explore the potential for forming a consortium of
public-private-academic partners to implement a national
mesoscale observing network based on the needs of the user
communities, including:
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Modeling community
General public
Commercial markets
Drivers: What are the major drivers of partnerships for mesoscale
observing networks?
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 22
Implementation Recommendations:
A partnership arrangement was proposed for creation of consortia to develop,
maintain and support regional mesoscale networks or even a composite
national network.
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The proposed network(s) would consist of a mix of privately owned
measurement systems, publicly owned systems and newly acquired systems
supplied by the consortia.
Each consortium collects and quality-controls the data, and supports the realtime dissemination of data and information products (e.g. analyses and
forecasts).
Consortium members share rights, costs and revenues according to a
“participation formula” (tbd)
Typical member roles:
 The public sector members access the data for the public good; i.e. public safety.
 The private-sector consortium members (and possibly academic partners) use the
data to create and sell various value-added products.
 Academia and non-profit research centers have access to the data for educational
and research purposes.
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 23
Presentation Outline
 Workshop goals and background
 Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
 Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
 Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
 Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup

 Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 24
Four Overarching Recommendations
 Adopt the testbed concept as a priority mechanism for transitioning
mesoscale observing and modeling advances from research to
operations
 Form a multi-sector “tiger team” to develop a functional design
for a working testbed, and recommend one or more testbeds for
the most pressing unmet requirements.
 Develop alliances among public agencies who have
complementary mesoscale needs (e.g. NOAA/NWS; Dept. of
Homeland Security; EPA; DoD) to leverage resources and
minimize costs.
 Develop partnerships among the public, academic and private
sectors that will facilitate the establishment and ongoing support
of mesoscale testbeds and, subsequently, operational
mesoscale observing-forecasting enterprises
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 25
Mesoscale Workshop
..end..end..end..end..end..
For complete article, see:
Dabberdt et al., BAMS, 86(7), July 2005, 961-982
http://ams.allenpress.com/pdfserv/10.1175%2FBAMS-86-7-961
[email protected]
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 26