Transcript Document
“Multi-functional Mesoscale
Observing Networks in
Support of Integrated
Forecasting Systems”
A Report on a USWRP Workshop
Organized by:
Fred Carr, University of Oklahoma
Walt Dabberdt, Vaisala Inc.
Tom Schlatter, NOAA/OAR/FSL & CIRES
Presentation to:
WSN05
Toulouse, France
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
Overarching Recommendations
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Workshop Goals
Develop a roadmap that leads to designing, testing and
implementing integrated mesoscale observing-forecasting
systems that:
– yield improved mesoscale forecasts
– utilize optimal observing system configurations
– serve multiple applications
– recognize the capabilities, interests and resources
of the public, private and academic sectors
Explore appropriate business models that will support and enable
these systems
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 3
Workshop Factoids
Domestic Int’l. Total
Public Sector
37
4
41
Academia and NCAR
49
3
52
25
4
29
11
122
Private Sector
TOTAL PARTICIPANTS
111
Dates:
8-10 Dec. 2005
Working Group Leaders:
Nowcasting - Pat Welsh, NOAA/NWS (now
U.No.Florida)
Jim Wilson, NCAR
Modeling and Data Assimilation - Steve Koch, NOAA/OAR
Xiaolei Zou, Florida State University
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 4
Test Beds - Marty Ralph, NOAA/OAR
Dave Jorgensen, NOAA/OAR
Implementation - Joe Friday, University of Oklahoma (ret.)
Maria Pirone, AER, Inc.
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 5
Modeling & Data Assimilation Recommendations:
Scope
What is the optimal mix of observations at the meso-, storm- and
urban scales?
Examples of mesoscale forecast applications requiring improved
observing capabilities include:
severe weather systems in both cold and warm seasons;
air quality and chemical emergency response;
aviation, marine and surface transportation; and
hydrology and more.
Modelers should be involved in the observing network decision
process by designing observing system experiments to determine:
the most important variables to measure;
the minimum spacing and resolution requirements (network design);
adaptive and targeted sampling strategies; and
data assimilation techniques to effectively use these new measurements.
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 6
Modeling & Data Assimilation Recommendations:
Remedy Deficiencies in Current Observational Networks
Most desirable additional measurements:
Lower tropospheric measurements:
– Mass, winds, moisture fields (3D) ~10 km horizontal; ~200 m vertical; 1-3 hrs
– PBL turbulent fluxes, PBL heights
– Turbulent flow and stability ~2 km; 15 min
– Aerosols, chemical tracers, emissions data
Quantitative precipitation estimate:
– Better accuracy, good and consistent quality control
Upper tropospheric measurements:
– State variable measurements at 100 km spacing (0.5 km vertical), 1-3 hours
–
–
–
–
–
improved winds from satellite and regional aircraft
vertical profiling of state variables and hydrometeors in cloudy regions
increased vertical resolution from satellite
ozone profiling;
tropopause topology
Land surface properties:
– Soil moisture and temperature profiles, snow cover and depth, SST, vegetation type/state
updated daily
Radiative transfer inputs:
– Ozone, CO2, water vapor, clouds
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 7
Modeling & Data Assimilation:
Overarching Recommendations
It may be more cost effective to sample only the boundary layer with
denser coverage than to similarly enhance observations in the upper
troposphere for improving mesoscale analysis and prediction.
It may be cost effective to deploy intermittent, targeted observations
at high resolution. Testbeds built around prototype observing networks
need to be in place to provide real-data tests of proposed strategies
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 8
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
The Helsinki Testbed
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 9
Advanced Operational Nowcasting – Scope
Forecast Period: 0-6 hr
Forecast High Impact Events
Winter weather: heavy precipitation (precipitation type – major
challenge), high winds, icing
Summer weather: high winds, heavy rain, lightning, hail
Air quality; dispersion of airborne toxins
Forecast Techniques
Extrapolation
Statistical
Numerical (process models)
Expert systems
Observing Systems - “All”
Important parameters to measure:
low-level moisture; detection of
sharp gradients; boundary-layer height; strength of capping
inversion; energy potentially available for convection
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 10
Nowcasting Recommendations
Top priority: Establish a national mesonetwork of surface stations.
NOAA should take the lead to establish this network, and set standards
for data quality.
Resolution needed: 5min and 10-25km (topography-specific).
Basic measurements:
winds
temperature
humidity
pressure
precipitation amount and liquid equivalent
Application-specific options:
precipitation type and size distribution
soil temperature and moisture
radiation fluxes
ceiling height
visibility
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 11
Nowcasting Recommendations
Priority Radar Recommendations:
NWS should proceed without delay with the (approved) addition of dual
polarization capability to the WSR-88D network.
Pursue the National Research Council Study recommendation to integrate other
radars into the WSR-88D network.
Support studies to investigate means for improving boundary-layer coverage in
the future through the use of closely spaced X-band radars.
NWS should pursue vigorously plans for a national expansion of the NOAA
Profiler Network with emphasis on boundary-layer observations.
A research field project should be conducted that tests the utility of radar
refractivity measurements to improve nowcasting.
Other Priority Recommendations:
Continue support for collaborative research projects aimed at using total lightning
data to improve severe weather warnings and nowcasts.
Provide real-time near-surface water vapor fields to demonstrate how highresolution water vapor fields can improve nowcasting.
Establish testbeds for very short period forecasting (0-6 hr, nowcasting) of high
impact weather.
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 12
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
The Helsinki Testbed
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 13
Mesoscale Weather Forecasting -- Testbeds
Testbed Definition: “A working relationship in quasi-operational
framework among forecasters, researchers, private-sector, and
government agencies aimed at solving operational and practical
regional problems with a strong connection to end-users.”
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 14
Testbed Recommendations
Testbeds are crucial in transitioning observing and modeling
research into operations; a successful testbed must satisfy
the following criteria:
Address the detection, monitoring, and prediction of regional
phenomena of particular interest.
Engage experts in the phenomena of interest.
Involve stakeholders in planning, operation, and evaluation of the
testbeds.
Define expected outcomes, including transition to operations,
strategies for achieving them, and measures of success.
Provide special observing networks (and people,
communications, and databases) needed for pilot studies and
research
Provide resources for the generation and delivery of experimental
products based upon these observations.
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Observational needs
vs. Applications
Nowcasting: severe convection
e.g. high winds, hail
Nowcasting: tornadic storms
Nowcasting: freezing rain
Mesoscale wx forecasting
Heat stress forecasting
Orographic turbulence
Agriculture -- freeze warnings
Terminal area aviation operations
Electrical activity
Flash flood forecasting
Emergency response:
chemical spills; toxic agents
natural disasters
Air quality
Key:
0 = not appropriate
1 = beneficial
2 = essential
Aug-05
soundings = RAOBS & ACARS, etc.
wind profilers = radar; sodar; lidar
BS Lidar
Wind Profilers
Weather Radar
Lightning Detection
MW Radiometry/GPS
Rain Gauge Network
Soundings
Sfc Wx Mesonets
Satellite Data
Mesoscale Networks:
Applications
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 17
Mesoscale Observing Programs Are Proliferating:
How can we build on them?
x
Coastal Storms
• Land-falling storms
(PACJET)
• Air Quality
• Fire Weather
• Energy, Water, & Air
Quality Issues
•Mesowest
•ARM CART
• Oklahoma Mesonet
• Texas Mesonet
• AIRMAP
• Hi-res temperature
forecasts for energy sector
Coastal Storms
North American
Monsoon Experiment
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 18
Helsinki Testbed 2005-2006
Mesoscale weather research
Forecast and dispersion models: development and verification
Observing systems and strategies: test and design
Information systems and technology integration
End-user product development and demonstration
Data distribution for public and research community
Observing Facilities
(preliminary)
1 dual-pol Doppler radar
4 C-band Doppler radars
101 surface wx stations*
191 road weather stations
42 two-level AWS masts
3 shipboard weather stations
11 backscatter lidars
1 UHF wind profiler
3 RAOB sounding stations
34 precipitation sites (part of 101)*
satellite obs. (GS and PO)
COSMIC RI soundings
EUCOS operational network
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 19
150km
Beijing Observational Network Development Plan (2006-08)
Source: CMA, July 2003
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 20
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 21
Implementation of Integrated Mesoscale
Observing-Forecasting Systems
Focus: Explore the potential for forming a consortium of
public-private-academic partners to implement a national
mesoscale observing network based on the needs of the user
communities, including:
Modeling community
General public
Commercial markets
Drivers: What are the major drivers of partnerships for mesoscale
observing networks?
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 22
Implementation Recommendations:
A partnership arrangement was proposed for creation of consortia to develop,
maintain and support regional mesoscale networks or even a composite
national network.
The proposed network(s) would consist of a mix of privately owned
measurement systems, publicly owned systems and newly acquired systems
supplied by the consortia.
Each consortium collects and quality-controls the data, and supports the realtime dissemination of data and information products (e.g. analyses and
forecasts).
Consortium members share rights, costs and revenues according to a
“participation formula” (tbd)
Typical member roles:
The public sector members access the data for the public good; i.e. public safety.
The private-sector consortium members (and possibly academic partners) use the
data to create and sell various value-added products.
Academia and non-profit research centers have access to the data for educational
and research purposes.
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 23
Presentation Outline
Workshop goals and background
Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup
Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup
Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup
Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International
Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup
Overarching Recommendations
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 24
Four Overarching Recommendations
Adopt the testbed concept as a priority mechanism for transitioning
mesoscale observing and modeling advances from research to
operations
Form a multi-sector “tiger team” to develop a functional design
for a working testbed, and recommend one or more testbeds for
the most pressing unmet requirements.
Develop alliances among public agencies who have
complementary mesoscale needs (e.g. NOAA/NWS; Dept. of
Homeland Security; EPA; DoD) to leverage resources and
minimize costs.
Develop partnerships among the public, academic and private
sectors that will facilitate the establishment and ongoing support
of mesoscale testbeds and, subsequently, operational
mesoscale observing-forecasting enterprises
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 25
Mesoscale Workshop
..end..end..end..end..end..
For complete article, see:
Dabberdt et al., BAMS, 86(7), July 2005, 961-982
http://ams.allenpress.com/pdfserv/10.1175%2FBAMS-86-7-961
[email protected]
Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 26