Transcript Document

Higher Modern Studies 29 May 2008
– A. Drew, Invergordon Academy
Study Theme 1D
Electoral systems, voting and political
attitudes
In 2007 the question was
The Additional Member System gives voters more
choice and better representation than does First Past
the Post.
Discuss.
To see marking instructions for this question go to
http://www.sqa.org.uk/sqa/28058.html
We are going to focus on voter behaviour &
political attitudes instead.
Higher Modern Studies 29
May 2008
Influences on Voting
Behaviour
A possible question could be
To what extent has social class influenced voting behaviour in
recent elections
(15 marks)
OR
Social class is no longer a significant factor in shaping political
attitudes.
Discuss
(15 marks)
OR EVEN
Critically examine the importance of the media in influencing voter
behaviour.
(15 marks)
There are a number of factors that have been argued to have an
influence on how we vote.
Social class, age, gender, ethnicity,
locality
But voting patterns are changing and other factors are becoming
increasingly important
Party affiliation, image & personalities,
issues
And a major source of political information for voters is
The media – TV, newspapers, internet,
PEBs, spin
Many candidates answers concentrate on
C
Class
R
Race
A
Age
P
Place
S
Sex
Good answers should include
P
Personality & Image
I
Issues
M
Media
P
Party affiliation
Remember to
PIMP
And there’s no excuse for writing just
CRAP.
Does Age Matter?
Pensioners are more likely to vote Tory.
Labour has “won” in every other age group
in the last 4 general elections.
2005 voting pattern:
Age Group
Tory
Labour
LibDem
18-24
24
42
26
25-34
24
42
26
35-64
33
38
22
65+
42
35
18
Over 65’s are also more likely to vote, 75% turnout
in 2005 compared to 37% of 18 -24 yr olds. Engaging
young voters may decide future elections.
Does Sex matter?
Nowadays there are no significant differences
between male and female voting patterns!
In 2005
38% of both male and female voters voted Labour
33% of men and 32% of women voted
Conservative!
In the past more men voted Labour and more women voted Tory
however the gap has steadily closed and there has been no
significant difference in the last 3 elections.
What about where I live?
There is a clear North/South divide in UK voting which has been
evident over several elections.
Labour are stronger in Scotland, Northern England, and the
Midlands. Tories are strong in Southern England
But there are also strong regional
variations e.g. Scotland is a 4 party
contest.
And voting patterns could be
explained by social class – the
Labour vote is still strongest in
areas where there is a larger
working class population
Is Race an issue ?
Ethnic Minorities: 7.9 % of UK
population
In 2005 approximately
60% of BMEs voted Labour.
10% voted Conservative.
15% voted Liberal Democrat.
but the pattern is not even
80% of Afro-Caribbean’s
voted Labour.
The Asian vote for Labour
fell and more voted LD
Could Social Class
be the real
explanation?
There are more social
class ABs among the
Asians
Or age and issues?
LD’s gained votes among young
BME voters with their strong
anti-Iraq war stance.
Labour’s immigration policy was
a vote loser amongst the BME’s
Social Class
 It used to be the most important factor in
voting behaviour reason up until the 1970’s.
It has become less important thanks to
DEALIGNMENT.
 There is still some residual class loyalty
among voters but it is no longer a reliable
predictor of voting intentions.
Social Class
Refer to AB’s (professional and managerial), C1’s,
C2’s, D’s and E’s.
DO NOT talk about the “upper class”!
Voting by Social Class
2005
1966
Class Tory
Lab
Lib
Dem
Class Tory
Lab
Lib
Dem
AB
37
32
24
AB
74
14
12
C1
34
35
24
C1
59
30
11
C2
32
43
18
C2
32
60
8
DE
28
45
19
DE
27
66
7
ABs still more likely to vote Tory
DEs still more likely to vote Labour
But voters are more volatile and parties no longer have
clear class based manifestoes.
Dealignment –What’s that?
Social class structure has changed since
the 1970’s
•Old heavy industry has gone – the traditional ‘working
class’ is disappearing
•new service jobs have taken over – the middle class is
growing.
Old Labour lost their traditional “working class” voters (C2s &
DEs)
Tories lost much of their traditional support among the C1s &
ABs
New Labour attracted new middle class voters ( C1s & ABs)
And LibDems have made recent gains across all classes
Voters are now willing to change their alignments
Party Affiliation then?
Dealignment means long term commitment or affiliation
to one party has disappeared over the last 30-40years.
In 2005 36% of voters were willing to change
their mind about which party they would
support.
Electoral Volatility = More
Floating Voters
In a pre-election poll in 2005 13% of voters were
undecided. It would only have needed a 10% swing
to the Tories for them to win
If there are more “floating voters” out there,
then they can be influenced in other ways
So ….
age matters,
but sex no longer matters,
race and place could be linked to
class
and class is much less important
What are the new influences ?
Have Image & Personality become more
important?
In a 2005 MORI poll 31% of voters felt party leadership was the
most important influence on how they vote compared with 24%
who felt they identified with a party.
Blair
Howard
Kennedy
Capable leader
34
18
18
Understands
world problems
24
12
11
Lots of
personality
25
6
13
Honest
10
9
31
Out of touch
36
30
7
Image as a strong
leader with lots of
personality now
seems to count for
more than honesty or
being able to relate
to voters.
Do we care about the Issues?
Although Party Leader has become more important than Party
Affiliation for voters, Party Policy on issues has become a key
influence
54% of voters in 2005 stated that policy on National issues was very
important to them
45% felt policy on Local issues was very important to them
How well a party is believed to handle key issues can influence elections.
Most Important Election Issue 2005
Labour Lead on Key Issues (%) 2005
Health
73%
Issue
1997
2001
2005
Education
62%
Health
+49
+28
+13
Education
+39
+27
+9
+22
+4
Law & Order
50%
Law &
Order
Is the Media behind it all?
Newspapers are an important source of political information
Newspapers are partisan – The Sun = Labour
The Daily Express = Tory
Readers may be influenced by the views of their daily newspaper
Political Parties recognise the importance of the newspapers - Rupert
Murdoch ‘courted’ by Labour, News of the World sex offender campaign
led to legislative change
BUT
Only 10% of people believe newspapers influence their vote
41% of Sun readers voted Labour in 2005 as did 23% of Financial
Times readers although both papers support Labour – support for
a party does not always translate into votes.
TV has the potential to be a significant influence on the voting public.
The average UK citizen watches 25.2 hours of TV a week
51% of adults consider TV to be their main source of political information
TV is regulated and impartial – the public trust TV reporting of politics
Parties spend a great deal of time & money managing their TV image
BUT
Over half of voters claim to have already made up their minds about
how they will vote before the campaign
Nearly half of voters say they pay little attention to political news
coverage
TV may only serve to confirm the views of the voting viewers
However it only takes a small number of voters changing their
mind to swing an election
Party Election Broadcasts were watched by 58% of voters in 2005
More than 50% of voters felt PEBs had influenced them
PEBS are popular but they may only confirm existing views
Political parties recognise the importance of the media
In 2005 the Labour Government employed 72 special
advisors (Spin Doctors) - at a cost of £5.5million
During the campaign Labour paid £530,000 to a
‘Special Advisor and the Tories paid £441,146
The Parties certainly think Spin works
But do they directly influence voters opinions?
Election Posters 2005
No-one knows for sure if poster and PEB campaigns
work
•They may just reinforce some voters
views.
•They may help in reminding voters about
the other parties’ weaknesses.
•They often focus on personalities
BUT – Parties spend £££millions on
them
Election spending 2005
Conservatives: £17.8m
Labour: £17.9m
Source BBC interactive
Social class is no longer a significant factor in shaping political attitudes.
Discuss
(15 marks)
•Class is no longer as significant – dealignment
•Residual class loyalty may explain the influence of Location & Race BUT Issues may
also be the explanation
•Age matters & disengagement of the young may influence future election outcomes
•Increased voter volatility has increased the significance of other factors to take
the place of class
•Strong party leadership image matters more than honesty & reliability or alignment
with a party
•Policy on key issues can swing elections
•The Media has huge potential to influence voters
•Partisan press, public trust in TV, popularity of PEBs
•An important source of political info for voters which is recognised by parties
•BUT the media may only confirm views rather than shape them
•HOWEVER it only needs to influence a few to swing an election
Summary
Many different factors
affect voting behaviour!
Social Class is still evident in voting but it is
no longer hugely significant
BUT as more Floating Voters appear
Personality, Image, Issue and the Media can
have a bigger impact.
Best of luck!